The PGA Tour leaves the west coast and heads to sunny Florida for the start of a run of tournaments in the state which sees the golfing year pick up pace. First up is The Honda Classic which will be played out at the wonderful PGA National.
Sepp Straka kicked off the Florida Swing with a win here last year and the Ryder Cup hopeful is in the field looking to make a successful defence of the title. A bunch of players will be looking to kick off this leg of the tour in style.
Recent Winners
2022 – Sepp Straka
2021 – Matt Jones
2020 – Sungjae Im
2019 – Keith Mitchell
2018 – Justin Thomas
2017 – Rickie Fowler
2016 – Adam Scott
2015 – Padraig Harrington
2014 – Russell Henley
2013 – Michael Thompson
The Course
We are at the PGA National once again this week. This is renowned for being one of the toughest par 70s on the circuit and that is proven by the winning score often being in single digits, which doesn’t happen very often on the PGA Tour these days. The trickiness comes in the form of the ‘Bear Trap’ which is the three holes 15-17 where the water is heavily in play and nerves are likely to be jangling, especially if the wind is up like it often is during this stage of the Florida Swing.
You have to strike the ball well around here. Length can come in handy but it doesn’t take priority over accuracy. There is an exposed element to this track so being able to handle the wind is another requisite and as with all tough courses scrambling abilities are essential. You need to play this course from the fairway with pinpoint iron shots and a decent putter the way forward. It is a true all-round test and a great way to start the Florida Swing.
The Field
We have been spoilt on the PGA Tour in the last couple of weeks with ‘Designated Events’ claiming elite fields. This is not a tournament of that stature and as such the superstars are having the week off which leaves us with a competitive field rather than a standout one. Among those who are on show this week is the defending champion Sepp Straka as well as the 2020 winner Sungjae Im. The winner in between was Matt Jones but he isn’t on the PGA Tour anymore.
Shane Lowry is another standout player who is in the field this week but his fellow European player Alex Noren was a late withdrawal. In terms of home players, Billy Horschel and Matt Kuchar catch the eye while the likes of Harris English and Brandon Wu will look for a big week. The international charge behind Im will be led by the likes of Taylor Pendrith, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Adam Svensson and Min Woo Lee.
Market Leaders
Sungjae Im is the standout player in the field this week and having won here in 2020 it is no surprise to see him as the 10/1 favourite to win the tournament. He is pretty relentless in the long game department and comes in here off the back of a couple of top six finishes on the west coast. He was in the top 10 in his title defence in 2021 and looks like he is the one to beat this week. He is a little on the tight side price wise for me though.
Shane Lowry looked like he had this tournament won a year ago but then a random downpour came along two holes from home and significantly inconvenienced him and in the end he fell just short. He is 16/1 on the best prices but you would struggle to argue that he is in as good form heading into the tournament this year as he was last year. He did offer up a top 15 finish last week and might be coming into form but he feels short based on current form.
Billy Horschel and Aaron Wise are 25/1 to win the title this week. Horschel is notoriously hard to get a read on so his indifferent form isn’t necessarily a negative, especially here where hitting the fairways carries a real premium. He has a couple of top 20s here too so he’ll interest some. Wise has no recent form to speak of but like Horschel he is decent from tee to green and that will attract him to some but I’d like to see a bit of form to back him.
Matt Kuchar is the only other player who is shorter than 30/1 on the best prices. He can be taken at 28/1 this week and you would think he has the skillset to go well this week with distance not a requisite to go well around here. Kuchar has shown good form recently and we know he can handle these classic courses. The only downside to his chances is that he tees it up here for the first time in a dozen years. If he takes to the track he has every chance at a fair price.
Main Bets
In an ideal world Matt Kuchar would have played here more recently than he has done but the fact he is here might tell us that he is keen to get back in the winning act and get his status back to where it was five years ago. In essence, he has the perfect track for him here. You have to play this course from the fairway and not being the longest hitter in the world, Kuchar is usually very strong off the tee in terms of accuracy. All tough golf courses you have to scramble well on and Kuchar is one of the best on the tour in terms of scrambling. He isn’t going to lose out on length this week and with some good form coming in here I think he is a leading bet.
Aaron Rai is another who has conditions to suit. He hasn’t won on the PGA Tour yet but he has won on the DP World Tour and generally when he wins it is on courses like this where there is a premium on accuracy and where handling the breezy conditions is a requisite skill. Rai is very good in the long game department and while he probably loses ground on the greens, these aren’t the toughest greens to putt on. Rai has had a couple of middle of the road efforts recently but they have been in those elevated events. This is a level or two down from that which should serve him well. He ranked eighth for ball striking last week and if he hits the ball as well here he should go very close.
Outsiders
I’ll go for a couple of supposedly fading Americans as outsiders this week in the hope that their class on a tough track keeps their head above water. Webb Simpson is the first of those. His form is absolutely terrible but I’m a firm believer in that being temporary and class being permanent and if he is going to get his form back it will be in an event where the course is tough and he has to battle and the scoring is higher than usual. He was T5 here in 2018 which shows he can handle this track when he is playing well and he isn’t going to be out-bombed around here. His short game is decent so if he can strike some good shots with the longer clubs he might be able to turn his form around this week.
Zach Johnson will probably have bigger things to worry about over the next six months as he looks to plot a team that can win the Ryder Cup overseas in September but before all of his efforts go into that he can have a good week here. As you would expect, Johnson ranks in the top 25 on the tour for strokes gained putting and hitting the fairways and those departments get you a long way in this tournament. Johnson made the top 10 here a couple of years ago and we know from his success at The Open that the more the wind blows the better he’ll be suited. As I’ve stated with all the others, length isn’t an issue this week. Johnson remains pinpoint with the wedges and on this course he should be able to outrun his 200/1 price.
Tips
Back M.Kuchar to win The Honda Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back A.Rai to win The Honda Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back W.Simpson to win The Honda Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back Z.Johnson to win The Honda Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 201.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
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