The final major of 2024 takes place this week when anyone who is anyone in the game of golf heads to Royal Troon in Scotland for The Open where we will crown the champion golfer of the year with the Claret Jug on the line.
Brian Harman was the man who secured getting his hands on this famous trophy a year ago and he will be looking to make a successful defence of the title, although as always the champion will be defending on a different course this year.
Recent Winners
2023 – Brian Harman
2022 – Cameron Smith
2021 – Collin Morikawa
2019 – Shane Lowry
2018 – Francesco Molinari
2017 – Jordan Spieth
2016 – Henrik Stenson
2015 – Zach Johnson
2014 – Rory McIlroy
2013 – Phil Mickelson
The Course
We are at Royal Troon this year for the first time since the epic duel between Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickelson where we were last here in 2016 when the former came out on top. The course at Troon is a par 71 which can stretch up to 7,385 yards and when you consider that the signature hole is only 123 yards the rest of the course has some monster holes on it and with rain around the area in the morning on Thursday it is likely to play as long as the numbers suggest.
The rough is said to have been allowed to grow this week so this test looks like it is going to be one that needs to involve hitting the fairways and the greens, the latter in the main though because some of the bunkers guarding these dancefloors are a shot dropped waiting to happen. You don’t win a links tournament without putting well though so that is important. The wind is set to be a factor too and that is another thing to bear in mind.
The Field
We have plenty of star names in the field this week with all three major winners here in the form of Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele and Bryson DeChambeau who will all be looking for a second major in the year. The defending champion Brian Harman is in the field this week as is the Scottish Open winner from last week in Robert MacIntyre. The Troon defending champion Henrik Stenson is in the field as are two other winners around here in Justin Leonard and Todd Hamilton, the latter who will have the honour of hitting the opening tee shot.
There are plenty of other names who will be looking to get their hands on the title including former winners such as Rory McIlroy, Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa, Jordan Spieth and Cameron Smith with the likes of Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton, Patrick Cantlay, Tom Kim and Ludvig Aberg among those who will be looking to win their first major here. A sprinkle of stardust is added to the tournament in the form of Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods.
Market Leaders
Scottie Scheffler only has one top 10 in three starts in this tournament but as the best player in the world from tee to green it isn’t a surprise that he has been chalked up as an 11/2 shot to win the tournament for the first time this week. The big problem I have with him is his putter is too hot and cold in this part of the world for my liking. He also skipped the Scottish Open last week which might be looked back upon as a poor decision. It is never a surprise if Scheffler wins but there isn’t enough in his favour for me to take him at this price.
Rory McIlroy will tee it up for the second time since that meltdown at the US Open last month and he is 9/1 to get the job done here. We know it is 10 years since he last won a major and that was probably a reason for the collapse late on at the US Open. He went well enough considering everything at the Scottish Open last week, particularly as he was the defending champion, but after what I saw at Pinehurst I can’t be getting involved in Rory in a major for a while.
Xander Schauffele was second in this tournament in 2018 when Francesco Molinari won it at Carnoustie and a couple of weeks out from the defence of his Olympic title the USPGA Championship winner is 14/1 on the best prices to get the job done here. He certainly ticks the boxes from tee to green and registered a top 15 finish in the Scottish Open last week so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him go well but others at better prices are preferred this week.
Not many had Collin Morikawa down as a potential winner of The Open when he won the tournament three years ago and he is around 16/1 to get his hands back on the title this week. You wouldn’t rule him out because Troon and Carnoustie are probably the two venues on the rota which would suit him the best and he arrives here off the back of a T4 at the Scottish Open and having contended in all three majors so far this year. The price is just an ounce too skinny for me but I might look to get the 2021 champion on side if he starts slowly.
Main Bets
I really like Tyrrell Hatton this week. His record in the Dunhill Links Championship which he has won twice, finished twice on another two occasions and always plays well in it just jumps off the page really and he has been in great form in recent times. After a US Open where he was going fine until a terrible final round, he went to Nashville on the LIV Tour and won that tournament going away and then he was third at Valderrama last week. He has had his bit to say about the preparation in the lead up to the week but the fact remains that he is a solid driver of the ball, hits plenty of good iron shots and he holes putts. Hatton was T5 here in 2016 and is a much better player now. I think he delivers a strong showing.
At a similar price I can’t keep Jon Rahm off my staking plan either. The early part of his year was dogged with a foot issue but in the nine LIV Tour events he has competed in this season he hasn’t been out of the top 10 yet. His form in The Open is no weaker as he was third behind Collin Morikawa three years ago and one of the closest challengers to Brian Harman last year. He played here in the initial part of his career eight years ago and made the cut. A brilliant driver of the golf ball with no weakness anywhere else in his game should go very well here.
Outsiders
I’ll load the team up with some outsiders who are strong drivers of the golf ball this week. Aaron Rai is the first of those as he comes into this tournament in excellent form on the PGA Tour having finished T2-T7-T4 in the last three starts. You have to drive it accurately around here to stay out of the bunkers and Rai has that box ticked and some. The doubts come over the putting but in this part of the world I think he’ll be better than many on the slower greens. Just on his form and tee to green game along though he has to be part of the staking plan.
Akshay Bhatia has already won on the PGA Tour this season and while it isn’t ideal that he is on debut here, Collin Morikawa showed three years ago that this tournament can be won at the first time of asking. Bhatia ranks at 20 on the PGA Tour for total driving and he is 17 for strokes gained on approach so if you put the two together he should be carving out a number of chances. I’d have liked him to play the Scottish Open to get used to conditions but we know from his win at the Texas Open that he can handle the wind and if the putter cooperates he can outrun his price if not do more damage than that.
Tom McKibbin is another player who drives the ball really well. He missed the cut last week but still shot two under par rounds but he has won on the DP World Tour and he was in the top 15 at the Dunhill Links last week. McKibbin is a long hitter which is no bad thing if this course really softens up with the rain and we know coming from Northern Ireland that he can handle the wind and things. He went well enough at the US Open and has six top 10 finishes this season. He feels like a bit price on debut as well.
I always look to see if anyone with Dunhill Links form is available at a decent price down the betting market and Victor Perez ticks that box. He is a former winner of that tournament and he won the KLM Open at the links course a couple of years ago so he is clearly a solid exponent of links golf as he showed last week where he finished in the top 10. Perez is a solid driver of the ball and he has the quality with the irons and imagination needed to find these greens. Perez has gone well on the PGA Tour this season and finished with a 65 last week so he should be full of confidence and looks like a big price.
Tips
Back T.Hatton to win The Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 23.00 with Ladbrokes (1/5 1-10)
Back J.Rahm to win The Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back A.Rai to win The Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 61.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back A.Bhatia to win The Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back T.McKibbin to win The Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Betway (1/5 1-10)
Back V.Perez to win The Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 176.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
