The flagship event of the PGA Tour takes place this week when the leading lights across the pond head to TPC Sawgrass for The Players Championship, the tournament which sees those teeing it up taking on the scariest hole in golf.
Cameron Smith tamed that test a year ago when he won the tournament but having departed the PGA Tour since then he won’t be around to defend the title. That means we will get a new winner from this elite field.
Recent Winners
2022 – Cameron Smith
2021 – Justin Thomas
2019 – Rory McIlroy
2018 – Webb Simpson
2017 – Si Woo Kim
2016 – Jason Day
2015 – Rickie Fowler
2014 – Martin Kaymer
2013 – Tiger Woods
2012 – Matt Kuchar
The Course
The Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass is the venue for this wonderful tournament once again this week. Golf fans will not need any description of this famous track, famous for the 17th hole which is a short par 3 island hole. This is one of the toughest tests of golf on tour where the pressure is on over almost every shot. Only the bravest golfers win around this track.
It goes without saying that with all the water around this course accuracy is paramount. This is a very tough course so scrambling is a key requirement as well which makes the bogey avoidance statistic another key one. Both tracks used in the Florida Swing to date have been firm and fast and the point of moving this tournament back from May to March was to keep conditions similar. TPC Sawgrass is a par 72 course which only measures 7,275 yards so it is not a long track and bombers don’t tend to get much advantage here.
The Field
We have 144 players qualified for this week, although not everyone is taking their chance. The field includes the best of the best as we are getting used to seeing on the PGA Tour at the minute. We might be missing a defending champion but we do have the two winners from last week in Nico Echavarria and Kurt Kitayama teeing it up. The do so alongside the three men who could come out of the week number one in the world rankings.
They are Jon Rahm, who will be bidding to win this for the first time, Rory McIlroy, who hasn’t won here since 2019 and Scottie Scheffler who also hasn’t won this tournament yet. Others who have won here who tee it up this week include Justin Thomas, Webb Simpson, Jason Day and Rickie Fowler. Patrick Cantlay, Max Homa, Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland and Will Zalatoris are just some of the stars who are looking to win this tournament for the first time.
Market Leaders
Rory McIlroy continues to be the spokesperson for the PGA Tour in the battle against LIV Golf but he was still close to taking down the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week. He is 9/1 to get his hands on the biggest title the regular season has to offer and it is hard to go against him other than a recent trend of slow starts to events. I suspect that is linked to all the speaking he does before a tournament and the time the media take from him. That puts me off backing him.
Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler are next in the betting at 10/1 to win this title for the first time. Rahm looked prime to do a job at Bay Hill last week but after a stunning first round he fell away badly from there on in. He doesn’t have a great record around here so I’m in no rush to back him. Scheffler was in the penultimate group last week and had a putt to tie the lead on the final hole but couldn’t hole it. If I was backing either of the two it would be him but he feels a little tight in price.
Patrick Cantlay arrives at Sawgrass as a 16/1 shot but having missed the cut on the last three times he has played this tournament you are taking a leap of faith that he can tame this beast this time around. He does have top 10 finishes at Riviera and Bay Hill so he comes in here in decent form which should be a positive but I’ve always thought that you either like this place or you don’t and Cantlay doesn’t seem to. He isn’t for me.
Justin Thomas is 20/1 to win the tournament this week. He flirted with success at Bay Hill last week but couldn’t keep it going at the weekend. He won here in 2021 and put up a creditable if unspectacular title defence last year. Thomas’ form has generally been ok without being anything special but he is a big time player. I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes well this week but the price is a little skinny for a man who might find a few too good for him.
Main Bets
I’m a big fan of everything in the bag working around here and there is only one player who has gained more strokes right across the bag this season than Max Homa. That is Jon Rahm who I’ve suggested above doesn’t necessarily get along with this golf course and the battle for number one in the world might be distracting him a touch. Homa has no such concerns there and he’s in decent form. He has already won the Fortinet Championship and the Farmers Insurance Open and came close to winning the Genesis Invitational so he is in excellent form. The reason for that is there is no weakness to his game. He closed with a 66 on his second appearance a year ago which suggests he is getting the hang of this course and I think he’s ready to take down the biggest title of his career to date.
Jason Day is another one who is having a great season right throughout the bag and as a former winner here he has to be taken as a main bet option this week. He watched on as an Australian won last year and I think he can follow suit with a victory of his own here. Day sits sixth in the total strokes gained this season with an incredible 62.221 shots gained off the tee in just 32 rounds of golf. He is solid into the greens and on them and we know Day has a brilliant short game. He is very much trending in the right direction and if he stays clean this week I think he’s got an excellent chance to win.
Outsiders
Chris Kirk won The Honda Classic a couple of weeks ago and we can forgive him his T39 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week because winning again after seven years would have been a huge emotional rollercoaster for him to overcome. He is another who has been in good touch this season and has the entire bag going well. Only 11 players have gained more shots on average than him this term and that win at PGA National wasn’t a fluke. He had finished third at the Sony Open and The American Express prior to it so his 2023 form is incredibly good. Clearly he ran out of steam last week but after a few days to regather his thoughts and emotions I think he’s primed to go well again here.
Adam Hadwin is the next player who has a good record throughout the bag this season. He sits at 34 in the overall strokes gained this season but has picked up 27.223 shots off the tee, 13.523 from tee to green and 13.702 with the putter. That is excellent consistency and he has three top 10 finishes to his name this season as a result of that. Hadwin was in the top 10 here last year so we know he has what it takes to tame this beast and with the tidiness of his all-round game this season I think he is primed to outrun his odds so I’ll take him at a big price.
My final bet is going to be Andrew Putnam. It might be that he pays the price with the iron play this week but his strokes gained from the tee and on the greens are about as good as there is on the tour this season and with no huge length issues this week I’m hoping not having to pound irons will see him go well in that department. If it does then he is a huge runner here. Only three players are picking up more shots than him on the greens this season and Cam Smith basically won this title on the greens a year ago. He was second in the Zozo and fourth in the Sony Open so he’s in decent touch and could be another who is overpriced even allowing for his poor record here.
Tips
Back M.Homa to win The Players Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 21.00 with Bet365 (1/5 1-8)
Back J.Day to win The Players Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back C.Kirk to win The Players Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-10)
Back A.Hadwin to win The Players Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back A.Putnam to win The Players Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 201.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
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