The new PGA Tour season gets underway this week when the first of the ‘Signature Events’ of 2024 takes place over in Hawaii as the newly revamped The Sentry tournament gets what could be a fascinating campaign underway.
We are immediately guaranteed a new champion of this tournament as the current holder of the title, Jon Rahm, has disappeared to his own idea of growing the game over on the LIV Tour so the extended field of 59 will deliver a different winner.
Recent Winners
2023 – Jon Rahm
2022 – Cameron Smith
2021 – Harris English
2020 – Justin Thomas
2019 – Xander Schauffele
2018 – Dustin Johnson
2017 – Justin Thomas
2016 – Jordan Spieth
2015 – Patrick Reed
2014 – Zach Johnson
The Course
The tournament name might have been modified but the course hasn’t. We are back on the Plantation Course at the Kapalua Resort in Hawaii this week, a track that will be incredibly familiar to the regulars in this tournament even allowing for the changes made to the course ahead of the event two years ago. It is a par 73 which can be something of a monster at 7,596 yards although the ball flies here so it doesn’t play quite to that yardage. Despite the length the only defence this course has is the wind which is isn’t expected to be anything out of the ordinary this week.
In essence this is a second shot golf course as the fairways here are incredibly wide and even if they are missed the rough isn’t too bad. Firing irons into the greens is the key to success here because the greens were flattened with the redevelopment. There are only three par 3s on this course but four par 5s and a few shorter par 4s, remember this is the place that Dustin Johnson nearly made an ace on a 400+ yard hole here when he tore the event up in 2018. Recently length and a very hot putter have been keys to success here.
The Field
We are up to 59 entrants this year with the winners from last year joined by anyone who didn’t win who made the BMW Championship at the end of the previous campaign. The only qualified player who isn’t teeing it up is Rory McIlroy. We do not have the defending champion here with Jon Rahm off to a different landscape but we do have the world number one Scottie Scheffler going in search of a title which surprisingly he has never won before.
Others of note in the field are the FedExCup champion Viktor Hovland, the man who surrendered a six shot lead in the final round here a year ago in Collin Morikawa, Max Homa, the American duo of Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele who start out on campaigns they hope will be better than last year and the European rising star Ludvig Aberg. The likes of Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Sungjae Im and Tony Finau will all be looking to get 2024 off to a winning start this week too.
Market Leaders
Scottie Scheffler won the final solo strokeplay event of 2023 when he took down the Hero World Challenge in good fashion and he is 11/2 to lift the first title of 2024 as well. He has played this tournament twice and in smaller fields is yet to crack the top five which would be a bit of a concern but LIV have taken the last two champions of this tournament away from it so Scheffler would rate as a leading contender, particularly with Rory McIlroy absent.
Viktor Hovland had a brilliant 2023 with success in the FedExCup but he is another who hasn’t really cracked the code around here. He is yet to finish in the top 15 on this course and you wonder whether the ease of the test takes away too many of his strengths. He is improving all the time though so you couldn’t say with any assurance that he can’t go well here. If you are prepared to put the past behind him he could be value at 10/1.
Collin Morikawa looked to be the winner in waiting here a year ago but six shots wasn’t enough of a lead in the final round as he baulked under the pressure of a Jon Rahm surge down the stretch. The two-time major champion has won the ZOZO Championship since then in pretty fine style so you would imagine if he gets into a winning position this time around he will get over the line. He is 12/1 to do that which looks a fair price really.
There are a trio of American players who are 14/1 to win the tournament this week. Patrick Cantlay ended 2023 shrouded in controversy at the Ryder Cup and will be looking to let his golf do the talking here, while Max Homa will be out to show that he can play his best golf away from California on a regular basis. Neither have won this tournament before but the other 14/1 shot, Xander Schauffele has. 2023 was very disappointing for him though.
Main Bets
I think this track could suit Ludvig Aberg perfectly and I’m happy to get involved in him at 16/1 this week. I don’t think we are going to see the Swedish sensation at this price very often this year so I’ll strike while I can. Aberg bombs it a mile and has the freedom off the tee to let it fly this week and he is usually dialled in with his irons. He is a decent enough putter as he has already shown in his career and coming from Sweden he isn’t going to be worried by the breeze. The one negative is that he sees the course for the first time but that hasn’t stopped him winning on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour already. He looks primed for a huge go at this at 16/1.
It is hard to ignore the form of Brian Harman at the minute too and the fact he won The Open in the fashion that he did tells us that he can beat elite fields and he can handle any conditions which get tough. That is important here and he will go into the tournament off the back of a top 10 at the Hero World Challenge where he led the field after 18 holes and was tied for third after the second round. He drives the ball really well and his putting is up there with the best in the game when he is on it. He has previously finished in the top three here and looks a big price this week.
Outsiders
I always think winning anything brings about a bit of confidence so I’ll pay to see if the win that Jason Day shared with Lydia Ko at the Grant Thornton Invitational will see his best stuff come out in 2024. He has been showing signs of getting back to his best for a while and this sort of test where he can really let the driver go could be the one that gets him back into the winning enclosure. We know that he can handle the breeze and when he is on it he is as good a putter as there is in the game. He saw his compatriot Cameron Smith win here a couple of years ago and Day might be overpriced at 50/1 to follow in his footsteps.
I’ll also take a chance on Kurt Kitayama this week at a monster price. He will either contend or be nowhere near but at the prices I’m happy to pay to see. The American does better when he doesn’t have to keep the driver to tight lines and he has the freedom to swing for the hills around here. We know that he can handle island golf and the wind issues that come with it as he is a former winner in Mauritius and he won at Bay Hill last year which is no easy feat. Long drivers who putt well are generally the order of the day in this and Kitayama ticks both boxes so I’ll see where that gets us this week.
Tips
Back L.Aberg to win The Sentry (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 17.00 with Spreadex (1/4 1-5)
Back B.Harman to win The Sentry (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with Betway (1/5 1-6)
Back J.Day to win The Sentry (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 51.00 with Betway (1/5 1-6)
Back K.Kitayama to win The Sentry (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Coral (1/5 1-6)
