2025 kicks off on the PGA Tour as any new year always does with The Sentry tournament which sees a bunch of players heading to Hawaii looking to begin a big year of golf in fine style with a win to kick start the campaign.
Scottie Scheffler did exactly that a year ago but he has picked up an injury in the weeks leading up to the tournament so he isn’t here to attempt to defend the title. That will be music to the ears of those who are teeing it up.
Recent Winners
2024 – Scottie Scheffler
2023 – Jon Rahm
2022 – Cameron Smith
2021 – Harris English
2020 – Justin Thomas
2019 – Xander Schauffele
2018 – Dustin Johnson
2017 – Justin Thomas
2016 – Jordan Spieth
2015 – Patrick Reed
The Course
We are back on the Plantation Course at the Kapalua Resort in Hawaii this week, a track that will be incredibly familiar to the regulars in this tournament even allowing for the changes made to the course ahead of the event three years ago. It is a par 73 which can be something of a monster at 7,596 yards although the ball flies here so it doesn’t play quite to that yardage. Despite the length the only defence this course has is the wind which is isn’t expected to be anything out of the ordinary this week.
In essence this is a second shot golf course as the fairways here are incredibly wide and even if they are missed the rough isn’t too bad. Firing irons into the greens is the key to success here because the greens were flattened with the redevelopment. There are only three par 3s on this course but four par 5s and a few shorter par 4s, remember this is the place that Dustin Johnson nearly made an ace on a 400+ yard hole here when he tore the event up in 2018. Recently length and a very hot putter have been keys to success here.
The Field
This tournament remains a ‘Signature Event’ which means that the leading players in the world are all teeing it up this week with the exception of one or two who have pulled out either through injury or because this event doesn’t fit their schedule. USPGA Championship and The Open winner Xander Schauffele will headline the field, one which also includes the twice winner here in Justin Thomas along with the former major winner Collin Morikawa.
The European charge this week is headed up by the likes of Ludvig Aberg and Robert MacIntyre, who in a Ryder Cup year will be looking to come out of the gates well for 2025, while the international challenge will be led by the likes of Sungjae Im, Hideki Matsuyama and Corey Conners. Among the many potential home winners are Patrick Cantlay, Sam Burns, Sahith Theegala and Tony Finau who could really enjoy conditions this week.
Market Leaders
Xander Schauffele has won this tournament in the past and he is 7/1 to add the 2025 version to his collection this week. Schauffele had an incredible year in 2024 where he became the second best player in the world behind Scottie Scheffler. Schauffele has now shown that he can take down the big tournaments but 7/1 for a player who is surely going to be all about the majors from here on in feels a little on the short side to me this early in the year.
Justin Thomas has twice won at this course in the past and if you are a believer in the nappy factor then he will be elevated up your shortlist for the 2025 version of the event. There is no doubt that Thomas has improved the longer 2024 went on and his second at the ZOZO Championship is a decent form line. He loves it here and looks to be returning to his best so he is going to be popular at a best price of 11/1.
Collin Morikawa will probably be wondering how he went the whole of 2024 without winning a tournament but that was the situation that he found himself in so he will be looking to take advantage of a week without Scheffler to land this title. He has played here five times and hasn’t been any worse than T7 so this is a course that he clearly enjoys and at 14/1 he is arguably the best value of the trio of market leaders.
Ludvig Aberg comes next in the betting at 16/1. He missed the latter part of 2024 with injury, returning only to defend his title at The RSM Classic and then compete in the Hero World Challenge where he went T17-6 in those two tournaments. He has the profile to go very well around here so the question is really all about whether he is in good enough shape with his game to be competitive. I wouldn’t want to be against him but I’d like a couple more units on the price really.
Main Bets
I am often one for backing selections at the Hero World Challenge and here as well because the conditions and the courses have plenty of similarities about them so I’m going to keep it simple here and take the same two. The first of those is Akshay Bhatia who finished 2024 in very decent order and who was T14 on debut here and so will know more about the nuances of this track and how to play it. He has won on the PGA Tour since then and will be coming here with much more confidence and I think he is a leading contender.
Robert MacIntyre was the other player I backed at the Hero World Challenge and I am happy to back him again. He finished just outside the frame in that tournament but he was in the mix for long periods. MacIntyre is on debut here which is a bit of a negative but he was on debut on the PGA Tour all of last season and still came out with one title in America to go with the Scottish Open crown that he won. Any breeze around here will suit MacIntyre but if this becomes a second shot shootout he’ll be in good order too. I think he is worth taking here.
Outsiders
Sepp Straka is a player I am going to be following in the early part of the year because he will want to be on the Ryder Cup team having had a taste of it in Rome a couple of years ago. I always think he comes to the fore on second shot golf courses with his wonderful iron play and if he can get the putter warmed up then he could be very challenging here. This might be the time to strike for the Austrian too given that few will have a competitive edge on him so I’ll pay to see what Straka can come up with here.
The other outsider I’ll take is Cam Davis, who is a big price from a competitive standpoint when we consider he did the Australian circuit last month. There are a lot of players in this field who haven’t been overly active in the last three months so just from a competitive point of view the Australian would look to be a big price. He has power to burn, will be fine with the conditions coming from Australia and so if he can get the putter going then even in this field he could take some stopping.
Tips
Back A.Bhatia to win The Sentry (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-6)
Back R.MacIntyre to win The Sentry (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 36.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back S.Straka to win The Sentry (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back them here:
Back C.Davis to win The Sentry (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Unibet (1/5 1-6)
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