The Tour Championship gets up and running on Saturday as what is now the penultimate tournament of the season kicks off at the Marshall Arena in Milton Keynes. It starts with a cracking looking battle too it has to be said.
Neil Robertson has been one of the best players of the season to date and he takes on Stephen Maguire in the behind closed doors event to get things up and running over the two sessions of action on the day. There is only one table in use in this event so these two get all the Saturday spotlight.
The Format
There are only seven matches in this tournament with the quarter finals and semi-finals being played over two sessions of action and the best-of-17 frames. The final was due to be the only match of the season outside of the World Championship to be the best-of-25 frames with the winner being crowned over three sessions, however the social distancing and health measures that are in place mean that the final on Friday will just be the best of 19 frames.
Neil Robertson
The Australian star arrives in Milton Keynes as the fourth seed this week after a pretty decent season which has seen him scoop titles in the Champion of Champions, European Masters and the World Grand Prix. He will have eyes on a fourth title of the campaign this week to take the ultimate confidence boost to Sheffield for the World Championship with him next month. Prior to lockdown there would have been few betting against him too.
To be fair there might not be any problem with believing in him after lockdown either. Although he didn’t come out of his first group in the Championship League earlier in the month, he made three centuries and a 90 in the six frames that he won. You’ve got to think the competitive outing will have done him no harm either, so he goes into this first round clash in decent nick and eyeing up a spot in yet another semi-final.
Stephen Maguire
Until just over a week ago Stephen Maguire was going to be watching this tournament from his living room but then Ding Junhui decided against travelling to the UK in the current climate and the Scot was awarded his place in the draw. When you factor in it is £20,000 just for showing up this week, to say he is playing with the house money would be something of an understatement. It is hard to see him coming through here but stranger things have happened.
I say that because Maguire didn’t play in the Championship League earlier in the month, and I see that as a huge negative. He might well have been practicing hard in lockdown but everything is different in the setup with the pandemic going on and that takes a bit of getting used to. By not going to the Championship League he won’t have had that experience, and that is without considering the lack of competitive edge he is likely to have. On the flip side, his opponent here only played 12 frames in the Championship League.
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Head to Head
These two have met on 20 previous occasions and surprisingly it is Stephen Maguire who has enjoyed the better of them in the past. He has 12 wins to his name to the eight of Neil Robertson, and the Scot will be well aware that he won their last meeting at The Masters back in January, where he came from 5-1 down to see Robertson off 6-5 in the opening round. Maguire only leads 103-96 in frames despite having won four more matches so that suggests when Robertson does beat him he does so with plenty in hand. This will be their tenth quarter final. Maguire has a strong edge in those too. He leads 6-3 so history is certainly on his side.
Betting
I like Neil Robertson here. I just think appearing in the Championship League is a massive thing. I wouldn’t say it will be the difference here because he is obviously the better player of the two right now anyway, but it gives him even more of an edge than he normally would have. We’re not going to get rich backing the Australian at a short price so we need to look at the handicaps where he is being asked to cover 3.5 frames, win 9-5 or better basically.
I think there is more than a good chance of that happening. A lot is being made of Maguire beating Robertson at The Masters but that was a month after Maguire’s run to the final of the UK Championship and Robertson was only really about to hit form. Even then Robertson led 5-1 and was cruising in that match. If he leads 5-1 here I would expect him to close it out well. He was in good scoring touch in the Championship League and I think he’ll have too much for Maguire in this one.
Tips
Back N.Robertson (-3.5 frames) to beat S.Maguire for a 3/10 stake at 2.00 with Boylesports
Back him here:
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