The 2016 Tour de France starts on Saturday 2nd July. Unusually, for the Tour this is not a short prologue but is instead a 188km road stage. We can expect to see a sprinter in the Yellow Jersey come stage end.
The Profile
The stage starts in Mont-Saint-Michel and features a mostly flat 188km course through the north of France.
There are two small category 4 climbs inside the first 40kms enabling the award of the first polka dot ‘King of the Mountains’ (KOTM) jersey at the finish line. Expect a breakaway group to hoover up the points in this category but the race will come back together for the Intermediate Sprint at the 118.5km point.
The sprinters will be looking to start building their points totals in the race for the Green Jersey and this sprint at La Haye will be where the sprint battles commence.
The finale is at Utah Beach in Sainte-Marie-du-Mont. This is a flat finish and there will be a bunch sprint. The early weather forecast is for wind and the worst sort for a peloton of riders – cross-winds. We can expect the sprint teams of Etixx-Quickstep and Lotto-Soudal plus the General Classification (GC) teams of Sky and Movistar to be very close to the front of the race all day if the wind is high. The sprint and GC teams would love to cause splits in the peloton for different reasons. The sprint teams because it might distance rivals for the stage win and the GC teams because it might allow their leaders to put time gaps into other riders with overall victory aims.
Can anyone beat Marcel Kittel?
In a word – NO.
Marcel Kittel (Etixx-Quickstep) has shown this year that he is back to his best form. He easily won the first two road stages in the 2016 Giro d’Italia looking like a Mark Cavendish or Mario Cipollini in their pomp. It would be a huge surprise if he is not the first yellow jersey wearer in the 2016 Tour de France.
His expected dominance is reflected in his price – in the 2.0-2.2 range. In fact this has drifted a little this week as the weather forecast has added a modicum of uncertainty. Kittel has such a strong team around him that I just cannot see wind being a factor for him. The real danger is if the wind has no effect and all 200 riders come to the line together.
As it is the first stage in the greatest race with the first yellow jersey on the line the bunch sprint has a chance to be really messy. A lot of teams with sprinters will try to get their man in position to challenge. This means there may be a lot of sprint trains, a lot of jostling and the potential for spills will increase. However, Etixx are so good and so powerful that I still see Kittel being in the right place to win.
Andre Greipel (Lotto Soudal) is expected to be the closest challenger to Kittel. He was clearly the number two sprinter in the 2016 Giro d’Italia including a stage win where he was blocked and had fight back from an almost impossible position to triumph. A messy sprint might suit him into Utah Beach and a price in the 4.0 range seems about right.
Mark Cavendish (Dimension Data) is third favourite for Stage 1 but he has yet to beat Kittel. A Cavendish of 2010 vintage against the 2016 Kittel would be a close-run thing. He doesn’t have the out-and-out speed to win a clean sprint but he has an uncanny sprinters nouse with years of experience and that could be his trump card. I would be surprised if he wins stage 1 – his chances for sprint victory may come later in the race as his rivals may retire.
A rider who revels in the dirty sprints in Nacer ‘the street fighter’ Bouhanni (Cofidis). He has won sprints this year that have been shoulder-to-shoulder battles and he loves the rough stuff. Bouhanni is fast, French, riding for a French team and will want to win stage one – a Frenchman in Yellow – you can see the headlines in the French press on Sunday if this happens. I think he will be challenging Greipel for 2nd place here so his price in the 15.0 range is of interest to EW punters.
The other sprinter I will mention is Peter Sagan (Tinkoff) – the nailed on odds-on favourite for the Green Jersey come Paris. I suspect Sagan will be in the top 5 tomorrow but he won’t have the speed to beat the really elite sprinters. Stage 1 will see him start accumulating points as he aims for his fifth Green Jersey in a row. I think Sagan will win stages this year but they will come on the hilly sprint finishes.
If cross-winds do split the race don’t be surprised to see Chris Froome in the top 10. His Sky team have an uncanny ability to place him in the front group when cross-winds are a factor – see last years race as an example.
Tour de France Stage 1 tips
Back Marcel Kittel to win stage one for a 3.0/10 stake at 2.20 with Paddy Power.
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