Tour de France Stage 11 takes the riders towards the coast in what should be a fast stage with a bunch sprint finish in Montpellier.
I was agonisingly close to another stage win in Revel when I was shocked that Peter Sagan (Tinkoff) was beaten in the sprint by Michael Matthews (Orica). Still, Edvald Boasson Hagen (Dimension Data) comfortably won his head-to-head!
Stage 11 – The Profile
The riders will be happy that stage 11 features no significant climbing. The stage is fairly short for a ‘flat’ day at 162.5 kms.
It starts in Carcassonne and is a little lumpy in the first 60 kms. There are two small category 4 climbs between the 30 km and 60 km point. A break will definitely go but I doubt of the leaders in the KOTM standings are amongst it. The category 4 climbs only offer one point each and won’t make a difference in the standings.
The sprint teams will control the gap to the break and set the finale up as a bunch sprint. There is almost no chance for the break to succeed.
Madness in Montpellier
The winner will come down to which sprinter still has the most energy and best legs. I don’t think we will see Peter Sagan in the running for victory in Montpellier. He has been in the breakaway on the last two stages, gaining a massive amount of points in his quest for a 5th Green Jersey. This must have taken a lot out of his legs. He will try to win the stage but knows that a 4th or 5th place finish plus points in the Intermediate Sprint will consolidate his lead. He is 5th favourite to win at odds in the 12.0 range.
I think the stage victory is between Mark Cavendish (Dimension Data), Marcel Kittel (Etixx) and Bryan Coquard (Dimension Data).
The bookmakers rank Cavendish as slight favourite at 3.00 with Kittel available in the 3.25-3.40 range. I think this is a fair assessment. Cavendish has been the best rider in the bunch sprints and Kittel has improved after an underwhelming start to the race. They are both rested compared to Sagan – although that is a relative term because they have all covered the same kms. It is difficult to know which one to choose but I just favour Cavendish. At these prices you cannot back them EW so it’s a win only punt. I think I will leave them both alone at those prices in my stage winner tips.
Coquard can be backed in the 11.0-12.0 range and this is where the value lies. Coquard was hampered badly in the run-in on the previous bunch sprint but still recovered to finish in the top 7 or 8. His team need something from the race as do France. He has the speed to win a stage in the race this year and I think this is his biggest chance. Surely we can’t go a whole TDF without a French Stage Winner? There is also some value with Coquard in the Head-toHead market. He can be backed to beat Andre Griepel at odds of 2.87 with Paddy Power.
Andre Griepel (Lotto-Soudal) is 3rd favourite in the 6.0 range. I just don’t see any value. He hasn’t really looked to be close to top form in this race. It is rare for a sprinters form to get better the longer a Grand Tour goes (unless they crashed early on).
Daniel McLay (Fortuneo-Vital Concept) surprised many with a third place finish on stage 6. At the line he was probably moving faster than anyone, but he was chasing Cavendish. If you are brave you can back him as an outsider with a small EW bet at 40.0-41.0. I prefer to back him in the Head-to-Head market against Dylan Groenewegen (Lotto NL-Jumbo). In the five sprint finishes thus far McLay has beaten Groenewegen 3 times. I fancy him to make it 4 on Wednesday.
Tour de France Stage 11 – Tips
Stage Winner
Back Bryan Coquard to win Stage 11 with a 1.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 11.0 with Paddy Power.
Head-to-Head
Back Daniel McLay to beat Dylan Groenewegen with a 3.5/10 stake at 2.50 with Paddy Power.
Back them both here:
