The first Grand Tour of the 2016 cycling season, the Giro d’Italia starts on Friday 6th May in Apeldoorn in the Netherlands and finishes after 21 gruelling stages on Sunday 29th May in Torino, Italy. The 2016 race will be the 99th Giro d’Italia.
For the main Grand Classification (GC) cyclists this is the real start of their season. Many riders have been sharpening their form in the lead in races to challenge for overall success in the Giro d’Italia. It is also time for the climbers, sprinters and team domestiques to play their part in team success.
The Route
As the popularity of cycling soars many Grand Tours have a start in a different country – this pulls in a lot of extra revenue. This year the Giro d’Italia starts in the Netherlands with a Prologue Time Trial and is followed by two road stages.
The first Monday of the tour (10th May) is a rest day as the entire peloton, team support, media, sponsors, photographers, media and fans transfer to Catanzaro for a 200KM road stage on Tuesday.
The race will then be completed in Italy. The stage breakdown includes a lot of sprint finishes, two individual time trials (stage 9 – 40.5km and stage 15 – 10.8km) and 7 mountain stages (stage 6, stage 10, stages 13 & 14, stage 16 and stages 19 and 20).
The relative lack of time trial kms means that there won’t be huge time gaps generated between the main GC riders until the mountain stages.
The organisers choice of route makes it likely that the race will go down to the end with the two mountain stages (19 & 20) possibly deciding the winner and make-up of the podium.
The Route Map
Last 5 winners
The winners of the last five Giro d’Italia are:
- 2011 – Michele Scarponi (ITA) – Lampre ISD
- 2012 – Ryder Hjesdal (CAN) – Garmin Barracuda
- 2013 – Vincenzo Nibali (ITA) – Astana
- 2014 – Nairo Quintana (COL) – Movistar
- 2015 – Alberto Contador (ESP) – Tinkoff-Saxo
NOTE – Contador won in 2011 but was subsequently suspended for doping violations and his results for two years were expunged from the record books.
Classifications – The Jerseys
There are a number of different classifications in the race.
Race Leader – The race leader gets to wear the ‘Maglio Rosa’ or Pink Jersey (as shown in the image). This jersey is given to the rider who has completed the combined stages in the lowest time. This is the most prestigious jersey in the race. The colour honours the company that created the race – La Gazzetta dello Sport.
Mountains – for many years this was a green jersey but since 2013 a change in sponsor meant the jersey is now blue. This jersey is awarded to the rider who obtains the most mountain bonus points throughout the race. In many years the actual best climber in the race (usually the race leader) does not win this jersey. Similar to the Tour de France, a rider will specifically target winning this jersey and to do so they will get into breakaways in as many stages with mountain points as possible. As they are no threat for overall victory the ‘contenders’ for GC will not chase them. This makes this market tricky to bet on.
Points or Sprinters – the red jersey. This is awarded to the rider that accumulates the most ‘sprint points’ throughout the race. Sprint points are on offer somewhere in the middle of each stage, the ‘intermediate sprint’ and at the finish line on non-mountain stages.
Young Rider – white jersey. This works in a similar way to the maglio rosa in that it is given to the rider with the lowest combined time – only this is given to riders under 25 years of age.
There are also two teams awards – Trofeo Fast Team (awarded to the team with the lowest aggregate time of their first three riders) and Trofeo Super Team (awarded to the team that accumulates the most sprint points).
Time Bonuses
Before talking about the potential race winners we must mention that unlike the Tour de France, the Giro d’Italia has time bonuses at the end of each stage.
[supsystic-tables id=’20’]
The table shows the bonuses on offer during a stage. As you can see a rider could ‘win’ 26 seconds of bonus time each day. This can change the order of a tightly contested top 10 in a hurry!
Main Contendors for Victory
Vincenzo Nibali (Astana) is the favourite for the Giro d’Italia. He has won 3 Grand Tours and won the Giro in 2013. This is the first time he has ridden in this race since then and he has the pedigree to challenge for victory. The lack of time trial kms is a definite bonus for Nibali. His form coming into this race has not been brilliant and I have slight reservations about his favourite status. His current price is between 1.5-2.7 and I can see no value here.
Mikel Landa Meana (Team Sky) was signed away from Astana in the winter after finishing 3rd in the 2015 Giro d’Italia. He surprised many in that race, as he entered as a team helper for Fabio Aru, and ended up performing so well in the mountains that at race end he had the best form of any rider in the race. Team Sky have effectively replaced Richie Porte (signed with BMC Racing) with a younger GC challenger. Landa has had a quietish start to the 2016 season but he has a mountain top stage win and overall victory in the Giro del Trentino where he beat a high quality field. He will be a strong contender for the podium but like Nibali his price is too low – currently between 1.4-3.5 depending on bookmaker.
Alejandro Valverde (Movistar) has had a great early season winning La Fleche Wallone and two stage races Vuelta a Andalucia and Vuelta a Castilla a Lyon. He is third favourite here and is always competitive in stage races. Will age catch up to him, he is now 36 and can he keep pace with Nibali, Landa and the other younger climbers in those final two mountain stages? I have some doubts he can win on his first visit to the Giro.
Outsiders
Rigoberto Uran Uran (Canondale) – Uran has finished runner-up here twice (2013 and 2014) and finished 14th last year. He can climb and is a strong all-rounder but I just don’t see him challenging for the podium places this year let alone victory. The form just isn’t there and he cannot climb well enough to stick with the elite climbers on all 7 of the mountain stages in this years race.
Ilnur Zakarin (Team Katusha). I have tipped Zakarin twice this year and he finished in 4th one place from a payout in each instance. I really like Zakarin. He looks like a younger Froome. He climbs exceptionally well, winning the mountain top stage in Paris-Nice 2016 and beating Nairo Quintana in a mountain top finish in this years Tour de Romandie (only to be ridiculously disqualified for crossing in front of Quintana). He has the looks of a future Grand Tour winner. He might be a year away or a team away from GC success but I think he is poised for a big breakthrough here and aplace on the podium beckons due to his climbing ability. Zakarin will also go very close to victory in the mountains classification which is where the value is.
Rafal Majka (Tinkoff). In the absence of Alberto Contador, Majka is team leader of Tinkoff. He climbs well, explosively at times, but I just don’t see him being able to challenge consisently through 21 stages to get on to the podium. He could be a decent outside shot for the Mountains classification.
I have decided to leave the sprinters market completely alone. There are possibly 5 riders who can win the Red Jersey – but this competition is too unpredictable. In previous years riders leading the competition suddenly pull out of the race when the mountain stages start. This year might be no different.
Tips
I have one tip pre-race but will return to the Overall Winner market once the race starts and the odds shift.
Back Ilnur Zakarin to win the King of the Mountains Jersey at 41.0 with a 1.0/10 stake (1/4 the odds top 3) with Bet365.
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