Monday is second of three rest days in the 2017 Giro. Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 10 takes place on Tuesday and sees the riders tackle their first Individual Time Trial (ITT) of this years race.
Sundays stage up to the peak of the Blockhaus climb was the best so far in the 2017 Giro. I think the top 3 will be shaken up on Tuesday but it will not delay the inevitable – Quintana will win the Giro.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 10 – Stage Profile
Stage 10 is quite a decent length for a recent Grand Tour ITT at 39.8kms. The ITT starts in Foligno and finishes in Montefalco.
For a ‘flat’ ITT this is not the easiest. There are no classified climbs on the course but there are rises nonetheless.
The first 12.7kms gradually descend and see the riders pas through the first check-point. The next 8kms see the riders ascend to San Marco.
From here there is a 7km descent into the town of Bastardo and the second time-check point. The remaining 11kms gradually rise to the finish line in Montefalco.
The course suits the power ITT riders.
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Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 10 – Favourites
There is a clear favourite for stage 10 – Tom Dumoulin (Sunweb). In the last three Grand Tours he has entered Dumoulin has won 5 ITTs (2015 Vuelta x 2, 2016 Giro x 1 and 2017 Tour x 2). In that time only Chris Froome has beaten him and that was in a mountain ITT. Barring mechanical issues or crashes Dumoulin should win by a decent margin. His performance on Blockhaus on Sunday was sensational. In all likelihood he will move into Pink after the ITT. His odds are at 1.72 – this is the shortest price for any rider on any stage so far in the Giro.
Many of the world’s top ITT riders are not at this years Giro d’Italia. The next best riders in the field include one of Dumoulin’s GC rivals and one super-domestique.
Bob Jungels (Quick-Step Floors) lost time as expected on stage 9. He lost more time than I expected and now sits 12th overall on GC. A decent ITT on Tuesday will likely move him back into the top 10. Jungels is second favourote for stage honours at 7.0 and offers a decent EW shot.
Vasil Kiriyenka (Team Sky) is a solid ITT rider. Now that his team chances of overall success have been smashed to pieces by a crash with a motorbike the emphasis may shift to stage wins. In that case Kiriyenka can go full-bore for ITT success on Tuesday. In a surprise Kiriyenka won the World Championship ITT in 2015. He beat Dumoulin there but to be fair Dumoulin was shattered after his Vuelta exploits. I think Kiriyenka may finish in the top 3 however on Tuesday. Odds of 8.0 are attractive for EW punters.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 10 – Outsiders
A small group from the GC riders should be able to gain some time on their rivals on stage 10. They include:
Gerraint Thomas (Team Sky) is still smarting and recovering from the crash on Sunday. He is out of GC contention now being over 5 minutes behind Quintana in 17th place. Thomas is a decent ITT rider and may use anger from the crash to produce a strong result. Odds of 15.0 have EW value but I think a top 3 is beyond him.
Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) is 2nd on GC only 28 seconds behind Quintana. Pinot is a better ITT rider than Quintana and could jump him in the GC with a decent ride on Tuesday. He too is at 15.0 but I like Pinot a lot more than Thomas. Pinot has to put in a massive ride and he has won ITT’s before on stage races. Pinot is winning me round in this years race.
Nairo Quintana (Movistar) has taken the race lead for the first time with a win on Blockhaus on Sunday. I’m not convinced he was flat out on the climb. His performance combined with the crash hurting the realistic chances of three GC riders has made this a three or four man race for the Maglia Rosa. I think he will be solid in the ITT but he could lose more than a minute to Dumoulin (he will make this up and more in the third week). Odds of 151.0 reflect his stage chances.
Bauke Mollema (Trek-Segafredo) was also excellent on Blockhaus and confirmed his showing in the 2016 TDF was not a fluke. On stage 13 of that TDF Mollema produced a 6th in the ITT. He will need to match that here to remain in contention for the GC. I think he will make the top 10 – if you think he can go better you can back him at 67.0.
Tejay Van Garderen (BMC Racing) – no chance. Sorry, I read and hear lots of hype but never see this produced when it matters. He lost a lot of time on Blockhaus and I think a top 15 on GC is the best he can hope for. Odds at 34.0 are not for me.
Vincenzo Nibali (Bahrain-Merida) – as expected wasn’t able to match Quintana on Sunday. He managed to finish in 5th place on the Blockhaus climb and trails Quintana by a minute+ already. In some ways I think he was lucky the Sky riders and Yates crashed. On Blockhaus Nibali wasn’t able to match Pinot (not a surprise) nor Dumoulin and Mollema (a big surprise). Yates and the two Sky riders are better climbers than the latter two so Nibali probably would be in 8th if not for the incident. Anyway back to Nibali – he is not at the level of a number of other riders. He has produced solid ITT results in the past. But I can see him losing more time to all of the top 3 on Tuesday and a number of those GC riders below him as well. Odds of 51.0 are a little light for my tastes.
Others:
Victor Campenaerts (Lotto-Soudal) can also be backed at 15.0. He has a decent ITT pedigree and is an emerging rider. He is not really in the GC battle so can concentrate solely on stage wins which is an advantage. I think the top 5 is on but I’m not 100% sure about top 3 and a payout.
I’m also going to back Davide Formolo (Canondale-Drapac) to beat Jan Polanc (UAE Team Emirates) head-to-head. They are fairly close on GC but Formolo has proper GC and Young Rider aspirations whereas Polanc has KOTM aims and stage wins. Formolo has better ITT results this season and he needs the bigger performance.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 10 – Tips
Stage Winner
WON – Back Tom Dumoulin to win stage 10 with a 4/10 stake at 1.72 with Bet365.
Bet on Thibaut Pinot to win stage 10 with a 1.0/10 stake at 15.0 with Bet365.
Head-to-Head
Back Davide Formolo to beat Jan Polanc for a 3.0/10 stake at 2.62 with Bet365.
Bet on all three here:
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