Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 16 takes place on Tuesday 23rd May with the first of the Alpine stages. I hope the riders are rested because stage 16 has a brutal profile.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 16 – Stage Profile
Make no bones about it this is where the racing gets serious. Stage 16 is a nightmare for those riders that don’t go well in the mountains.
The stage is amongst the longest in the Giro at 224kms. It includes two category 1 climbs plus the Stelvio which is the Cima Coppi (high point) of the 2017 race.
The stage starts in Rovetta and the roads descend for 10kms. Then they gradually rise to the start of the first category 1 the Passo Del Mortirolo. This is nasty in its own right at 13kms in length averaging around 8%. The first of the three mountain climbs is peaked at 84.5kms.
The riders then descend and head towards the Cima Coppi – Passo Della Stelvio Stilfserjoch. This iconic mountain climb is 22kms long with an average gradient over 7%. The peak is reached at 143.5kms and the 25km descent is tricky – it is steep with lots of hairpins.
The final climb – the Umbrailpass Giodo Di Santa Maria starts at 189kms. This is the steepest climb of the day at 7.5% and is 13.4kms in length. Once this is peaked the roads to the finish in Bormio are all downhill.
There are three possible outcomes for the stage:
- A breakaway goes with riders of no consequence to the GC battle – they are allowed to contest the stage;
- A break goes with KOTM riders – it os closely monitored and hauled in on the Stelvio or the final climb;
- Movistar go berserk on the Passo Del Mortirolo to try to drop race leader Tom Dumoulin’s team-mates and isolate him.
Of the three – number 1 is the most unlikely.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 16 – GC Battle
I’m going to lay this out a little differently today by listing the GC riders I like and those that I dislike for the stage.
LIKE
Nairo Quintana (Movistar) needs to be Nairo on form this week to have any chance of winning the Giro. Realistically he needs to gain about 5 minutes this week to give him enough of a buffer for the stage 21 ITT. That time needs to start being gained on stage 16. The Movistar team has been built for these next 5 stages. The team is full of climbers that will ride tempo on the front of the peloton and disrupt team Sunweb. I expect them to go hard on the first climb. It is possible they send one or two men into a break on the first climb and use them as support for a Quintana attack on the Stelvio. On paper this suits Quintana more than Blockhaus (which he won) and Oropa (where he was 4th). He is favourite at 2.75 and should win if Movistar execute their plans for the stage properly.
Ilnur Zakarin (Katusha) looked much stronger on Oropa than on Blockhaus. He also produced a very decent ITT so it looks like the Blockhaus stage was simply a bad day. Zakarin was really strong in the high mountains here last year and in the Tour de France too. A good day on Tuesday could see him move into the top 4. I like his odds at 16.0.
Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) was really good on Blockhaus but then had a terrible ITT and also lost some time on Oropa. Pinot tends to produce his best results in the high mountains. He is also a demon descender – the only one in the GC group to rival Nibali. There is some EW value at 17.0.
Domenico Pozzovivo (AG2R La Mondiale) is the lightest of the light climbers in the field. That is an advantage on these next few stages. He struggled on Blockhaus and Oropa but stage 16 suits him a lot more. He could be a useful climbing ally for Quintana. Odds as high as 81.0 have great EW value.
DISLIKE
Vincenzo Nibali (Bahrain Merida) lost a lot of time (more than 90 seconds) on the two mountain-top finishes that the GC riders raced. He attacked towards the end of stage 15 but it looked like a bluff to me – and the sort of bluff to pretend his legs are better than they really are. I think he will be eliminated from the GC battle on stage 16. I’m not interested in him at odds of 12.0. The only chance he has is if there is a sort of GC stalemate because he has the descending skills to beat a small GC group.
Bauke Mollema (Trek-Segafredo) was decent on Blockhaus but lost time on stage 14 at Oropa. Mollema was decent in the mountains in the Tour de France last year – which should bode well. The eye test here though raises some concerns. Odds of 51.0 are to be ignored.
Steven Kruijswijk (Lotto NL-Jumbo) also came a cropper on Blockhaus and Oropa losing a large amount of time on each. Yes, he is a good high mountains climber but he doesn’t seem to have the legs in this race. He can be backed in the 23.0-41.0 range but I just cannot see him being a threat.
INDIFFERENT
Tom Dumoulin (Sunweb) – I think he will lose some time on stage 16 but not a huge amount. His team weren’t really built for this week even with the injured Wilco Kelderman. Dumoulin is riding like a man possessed this year. He was awesome on Oropa but that was a power climb. It remains to be seen how he handles multiple tough climbs 5 days in a row.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 16 – Break Riders
We need to talk KOTM riders here and riders that can climb but have yet to show in breaks. I would be shocked if a rider from this group won the stage but they could get over the first two climbs in front of the GC battle. Then they become threats to win the stage if the GC battle stalls.
KOTM
Omar Fraile (Dimension Data) – second in the KOTM classification has to attack as there are huge points available on the stage. Odds of 23.0 reflect this need to attack.
Jan Polanc (UAE Team Emirates) – the closest non-GC rival to Fraile in the KOTM classification. Won the Etna stage so he can climb. He is however in 16th place overall so may prioritise his GC position. Odds of 81.0 have EW potential.
Mikel Landa (Team Sky) is expected to challenge for the KOTM classification and stage wins now that he is out of the GC fight. The Team Sky crash meant he never featured on Blockahus but he 3rd on Oropa. He is second favourite here at 4.50. As he is way down on GC he might be allowed to feature in a break. If he gets clear in a break I think he has a great chance at getting the stage win.
Others
I will select a number of riders here that have climbing ability and not on GC teams. The last two could be aides for thier Fraile and Landa above:
Hugh Carthy (Canondale) – odds of 151.0;
Cristian Martin Rodriguez (Wilier) – odds of 301.0;
Kenny Ellisonde (Team Sky) – odds of 251.0;
Natnael Berhane (Dimension Data) – odds of 401.0.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 16 – Tips
Bet on Nairo Quintana to win stage 16 with a 2.5/10 stake at 2.75 with William Hill.
Back Ilnur Zakarin to win stage 16 with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 16.0 with William Hill.
Bet here:
Bet on Domenico Pozzovivo to win stage 16 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 81.0 with Bet365.
Back Mikel Landa to win stage 16 with a 1.5/10 stake at 4.50 with Bet365.
Bet here:
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