Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 2 takes place on Saturday. The terrain means we could potentially see a break succeeding or a sprint from a much depleted peloton.
Stage 1 had all the hallmarks of the classic bunch sprint – only for it all to fall to bits in the final 3kms. Stage 1 was a great day for Bora-Hansgrohe who hold all of the race jersey’s heading in to Saturday’s 2nd stage. The sprinters teams will be getting a right rollicking tonight!
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 2 – The Profile
Stage 2 is 221kms from Olbia to Tortoli. The profile (see left) is undulating throughout and is classed as a hilly stage.
There are two categorised climbs in the stage. A category 3 climb comes at Nuoro at 114kms and a tougher category 2 at Genna Silana at 174kms. There are decent points in the KOTM available, especially on the Genna Silana climb. We can expect the riders looking for the KOTM Jersey to try to get into a break and collect points.
From the top of the Genna Silana climb the riders descent to the finish. There is a flat section of around 10kms into Tortoli. A number of teams may try to push the pace on the final climb to drop the big name sprinters. By reducing the size of the front group we may get a surprise winner in Tortoli.
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Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 2 – The KOTM/Break Riders
This is a tough stage to predict. The GC teams will be mindful of the break late in the days racing because of the category 2 climb. On the flip side – can the sprinters remain with the peloton on that climb? Hence, I’m splitting my preview in to riders I feel would gain being in the break and then the GC/sprinters. This group contains riders on teams with no serious GC threat.
Cesare Benedetti (Bora-Hansgrohe) took the lead in the KOTM classification on Friday. He will be looking to defend his lead on Saturday so I look for him to be in the day’s breakaway. Benedetti might be happy with accumulating points and lack the desire to go for the stage win once the category 2 climb is peaked. In the early markets he has no odds for stage 2!
Omar Fraile (Dimension Data) is amongst the favourites to win the KOTM jersey in the Giro. Stage 2 with its late category 2 climb offers a nice points haul – one that could see Fraile take the lead in the classification. He will need to build up his points as a buffer for the GC riders charge in the final week of racing. Fraile can be backed at 67.0 so there is EW potential.
Alexander Foliforov (Gazprom) finished 6th in the KOTM classification in the 2016 Giro. He gained most of his KOTM points in the early stages in that race and stage 2 looks perfect for a repeat performance on Saturday. 151.0 looks interesting for a small EW bet for the important stage win that his team seak from this race.
Guilo Ciccone (Bardiani) is a young super talented climber with a big future. The Italian riders will want to win stages in this the 100th Giro. Ciccone could feature in a break on Saturday or possibly wait for the upcoming finish on Mount Etna. I will bet on the latter
Hugh Carthy and Joe Dombrowski (Canondale-Drapac) each lost over a minute on stage 1 after being caught behind the crash at 3.1kms. I thought Dombrowski would be targeting the GC so he will need to gain back as much of that deficit ASAP. Canondale-Drapac have been sending riders in breaks the last three Grand Tours and I can’t see this changing. I feel these two may hold back until Monday’s stage so I would image the aggressive Simon Clarke at 67.0 holds the value here.
Simone Ponzi (CCC Sprandi Polawice) and Jakub Mareczko (Wilier Trestina – Selle Italia) are Italian riders from wildcard teams that sit in the top 20 on GC. Their teams aim are stage wins and holding jerseys in this Giro. As they are only 10 seconds from the race lead I could see either/both in the break on stage 2. Of the two Ponzi looks the better option as he is the more accomplished climber of the two. Ponzi at 51.0 looks like it has EW value.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 2 – GC Riders and Sprinters
The bookmakers have the same favourites group as for stage 1 – but at slightly higher odds. They are backing the sprinters to make up for the cock-up at the end of stage 1.
Fernando Gaviria (Quick-Step Floors) is stage favourite at 4.5 with Andre Griepel (Lotto-Soudal) at 6.0 and Caleb Ewan (Orica-Scott) at 7.0. Gaviria lost his position in the final 3kms on stage 1 and finsihed in a disappointing 12th place. Ewan grabbed a 2nd place easily winning the main sprint from Greipel. On that evidence Ewan, the lightest of the three looks to be the best bet.
Giacomo Nizzolo (Trek-Segafredo) and Sacha Modolo (UAE Team Emirates) – 4th and 5th respectively on stage 1 come next at 11.0. The next tier of sprinters (Bennett and Sbaragli) then follow with odds in the 15.0-19.0 range.
Then come the GC riders mixed with some all-rounders who can sprint. Of these I would be stunned if a GC rider won the stage – but expect a few of the all-rounders to be in the mix if the sprinters are dropped.
Nathan Haas (Dimension Data) can be very dangerous from a smaller peloton. He is quick when he needs to be in a sprint situation and odds of 34.0 look to have some appeal.
Filippo Pozzato (Wilier Trestina – Selle Italia) is approaching the end of his career. He loves to attack. The descent off the category two climb could be a perfect point for him to have a go at a stage win. Pozzato was buzzing around the front of the peloton on Friday so he is keen to stretch his legs. Pozzato wouldn’t be marked as closely as Haas which gives his odds at 34.0 more value.
Luis Leon Sanchez Gil (Astana) has become more of an attacking rider looking for stage wins rather than GC results as he has aged. Astana are riding under the weight of the tragic loss of Michel Scarponi. Sanchez Gil will want to do well as a mark of respect and to honour Scarponi. Odds of 34.0 look decent for an EW shout.
I’m not convinced Bahrain-Merida will allow Enrico Gasparotto to challenge for the win tomorrow unless a small group gets to the finish. The team will need him later in the race to help Vincenzo Nibali challenge for the GC. Odds of 41.0 looks a little light.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 2 – Tips
I will take four riders with longer-odds for stage 2 honours.
Back Alexander Foliforov to win stage 2 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 151.0 with Bet365.
Bet on Simon Clarke to win stage 2 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 67.0 with Bet365.
Back Filippo Pozzato to win stage 2 with a 0.75/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 34.0 with Bet365.
Bet on Luis Leon Sanchez Gil to win stage 2 with a 0.75/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 34.0 with Bet365.
Back all four here:
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