Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 4 takes place on Tuesday May 9th, with the first of many mountain top finishes in this years race. The race transferred from Sardinia on Monday when there was a rest day.
Stage 4 has the potential to be the most exciting stage of the race so far. Let us hope it is better than stage 2 which promised much but delivered nothing.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 4 – The Profile
The profile for stage 4 is vastly different from the preceding three stages. This is a proper mountain stage with a summit finish.
Stage 4 is 181kms in length. The day starts in Cefalu and ends on the stunning Mount Etna.
The first climb starts at 72kms and is peaked at the 90km mark. This is the category 2 Portella-Femmina Morta climb. Expect the days break to summit this climb with an advantage over the peloton. It should feature the KOTM Jersey challengers as they look for points.
The next section features a long descent then a couple of small rises before the base of Etna is reached.
The Mount Etna climb is the first category 1 climb in the 2017 race. It starts at 163kms and sees the riders climb for 18kms to the finish line. The average gradient for the climb is 6% but there are sections up to 12% in the middle. The GC riders should come to the front for the first time on Tuesday.
The previous time Mount Etna featured in a Giro was in 2011. That day the Mount Etna stage was the 9th in that race. The final climb featured a blistering attack by Alberto Contador – one which saw him take the Maglia Rosa.
This years Etna stage is only the 4th of the race. The consensus is that Nairo Quintana is the best rider and climber in the race. If he chooses and based on his recent results Quintana could probably win stage 4 fairly easily. Does he want the Maglia Rosa and the pressures of defending it this early in the race though?
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 4 – Favourites
We should see the two big teams – Movistar and Team Sky – at the front of the race on Tuesday. One or the other will take control of the front of the peloton on the Etna climb as they look to show their strength. I have a feeling it will be Team Sky to the fore with Movistar in close attendance.
If the big favourites go for the stage then these are the likely winners.
Nairo Quintana (Movistar) – 2nd favourite at 6.50. The best climber in the race on the first big mountain test. It is not often we can get odds that high for Quintana ona mountain stage – the EW is in play too.
Gerraint Thomas and Michal Landa (Team Sky) will both have to try to stick with Quintana if he attacks. Thomas has been the more visible rider thus far and the Etna climb – long and gradual – is more to his liking than Landa. Landa will do better in the steeper climbs in week 3. Thomas has shown he can win on this type of climb in last years Paris-Nice. Thomas can be backed at 15.0 and Landa at 12.0. Thomas looks the better choice.
Vincenzo Nibali (Bahrain Merida) really has shown so little this year especially on climbs that I have a tough time seeing him as third favourite at 7.50. Yes, he raises his game for the Giro – but he has been so far below par that I can’t back him until I see some improvement.
Steven Kruijswick (Lotto-NL Jumbo) has odds as high as 19.0. Like Landa he will go better in the steeper climbs that come later in the race. He should be there or thereabouts but to win the stage he needs that extra gear should the stage be decided in a sprint rom a small GC group. Not for me.
Adam Yates (Orica-Scott) is another that has kept a low profile so far. The Etna climb suits him but I think his aim for the first 12 stages is to stay close to the front trying to stay in touch with the race lead. Odds of 9.0 look a little short to me.
Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) is stage favourite on Tuesday at 5.0. This is something of a shock – the bookies are essentially saying they like Pinot more than Quintana on a mountain top finish. Stunning! Foolhardy! I like Pinot but in a GC battle he is not beating Quintana on a climb.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 4- GC Outsiders
The profile of the Etna climb suits the two ITT specialists that can climb – Tom Dumoulin (Sunweb) and Bob Jungels (Quick-Step Floors). Dumoulin has gone really well on this type of climb in Grand Tours before (Vuelta 2015 and Giro 2016). The difference between then and now is that he is a GC contender – one that will be marked if he tries to attack. Odds around 26.0 look right. In a GC battle on Etna he should be amongst the top 6-10 riders.
Jungels helped force the split in the peloton on stage 3. He is looking to gain time before the brutal final week of racing. Jungels was 6th in the 2016 Giro but struggled when the GC riders attacked in the mountains. He looks to have improved since then but it is a big ask to beat that top group. Odds at 41.0 have EW value but not for me.
Bauke Mollema (Trek-Segafredo) has been anonymous so far in the Giro. He is a strong climber but I think odds in the 15.0 range are probably a little too low. I think he has the chance to finish top 5 or 6 but a top 3 finish in a GC Etna fight looks tough.
Ilnur Zakarin (Katusha) lost time thanks to a puncture on stage 2. He can climb with aplomb (TDF mountain stage win in 2016). Can he beat all of these riders though on Etna? I don’t think so. His climbing in the recent Tour de Romandie wasn’t great and he will need to improve a lot to have a chance on Tuesday. Avoid at 19.0.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 4- KOTM Challengers and Outsiders
Two other scenarios could play out on Tuesday:
- The GC riders play the cagey game. They allow their number two or three riders to attack to try to draw counters form their ‘proper’ GC rivals;
- The KOTM riders, many of whom are already down on GC, are given their freedom to challenge for stage honours.
I’m not going into great details on the riders here but think about the following
Scenario 1
Andrey Amadour (Movistar) – odds of 126.0. Quintana’s right-hand man and an excellent climber in his own right.
Diego Rosa (Team Sky) – odds of 81.0. Rosa in particular is a super climber. The concern for backing him is that he is essentially on the same time as most of the GC riders. He also has the ability to finish in the top 5-6 in this race. He is probably the best number 3 in the Giro. Could be used to tempt Quintana out.
Giovanni Visconti (Bahrain-Merida) – odds of 151.0. Another excellent climber and a rider that has won Grand Tour stages and a KOTM Jersey (2015 Giro). Signed to be Nibali’s mountain super-support. Has the potential to win on Etna if the big boys play it coy.
Scenario 2
Omar Fraile (Dimension Data) – the KOTM favourite is the obvious choice in this group. Odds of 41.0 look a decent EW shout. I’m not 100% convinced he can win the stage from a breakaway if it contains the Canondale riders (see below).
Alexander Foliforov (Gazprom) – expected to be the biggest threat to Fraile for the KOTM but hasn’t gained any KOTM points so far. As we have no indicator on his form I cannot back him. Odds at 67.0 look too short.
Daniel Teklehaimanot (Dimension Data) leads the KOTM classification after 3 stages. He is a break specialist but his role may now be as support to Fraile. Odds of 301.0 are huge and for the very brave.
Pierre Rolland, Michael Woods and Joe Dombrowski (Canondale Drapac) have all lost time already in the Giro. This means if they get into a break they will be given some leeway as they are not GC threats. They will now target stage wins and the KOTM jersey. Their odds are 23.0, 81.0 and 51.0 respectively. Of the 3 Rolland is the one to avoid. I think the other two are better climbers and I just favour Woods.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 4 – Tips
I’m going to cover all three scenarios as laid out above.
Back Nairo Quintana to win stage 4 with a 1.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 6.50 with Paddy Power.
Back him here:
Bet on Giovanni Visconti to win stage 4 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 151.0 with Bet365.
Back Michael Woods to win stage 4 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 81.0 with Bet365.
Bet on Diego Rosa to win stage 4 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 81.0 with Bet365.
Bet here:
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