Giro d’Italia Stage 11 is back to the flat roads after a few days in the mountains. This will provide some relief for the General Classification riders and see the sprinters teams controlling the days racing with the hopes of gaining a stage victory in Asolo.
The Route
Stage 11 is 228kms in length. the first 195kms are flat and then there is a short sharp climb – the category 4 Forcella Mostacin.
I expect to see attacks on this climb as the punchy riders try to get away from the sprinters teams and steal a stage victory. The Forcella Mostacin tops out at 207kms from which there is a short downhill, a couple of small bumps then a second steep climb in Asolo itself.
Again, there will be attacks on the final small climb in Asolo.
I don’t see the break being allowed to survive on Stage 11. There will be too many teams, sprinters and punchers alike who feel they have a chance at winning so expect a mad dash in the last 25kms.
Who might win?
Were the last 25kms of the stage like the first 180kms then Andre Greipel would be a shoo in for victory. As it is I think the Forcella Mostacin might be a little too much for him to get over in the front group. True, there is time to get back to the front but will this use too much energy? One thing you can be sure of – he will fight like crazy to be in contention. He is an interesting price though as a real outside EW bet – as high as 34.0 with Coral.
Of the sprinters Sonny Colbrelli might be the best choice. He is current bookmakers favourite at around 8.0. My fears for his chances are similar to Greipel’s. Can he get over the Forcella Mostacin close enough to the front?
For me this is perfect for Alejandro Valverde to attack and gain some bonus seconds. I think he is a really good choice for victory today. He can get over these steep short climbs and sprints really well uphill – as evidenced by his One Day Classics victories. At 13.0 he is a great EW bet. I think he will beat the other GC riders in Stage 11 and that will place him at or very close to the front of the race today.
I backed Diego Ullisi yesterday but the peloton didn’t chase the breakaway hard enough and some of the break survived to the finish line. This should suit him today but he came in towards the back of the front group yesterday when I thought he would be closer to the front.
A rider who I think might be given a little leeway today is Moreno Moser. He finished 3rd on the stage Brambilla took the Maglio Rosa and has a good pedigree on stage finishes like today. He has a great price too – 51.0 with come bookmakers.
Following Mikel Landa’s withdrawal yesterday Team Sky will try for stage wins. I’m not sure they have a rider capable of winning from the group today – and I have some confusion about their team selection in general. If Wouter Poels was in their Giro team I would give him a strong chance.
Giro d’Italia Stage 11 Bets
Back Alejandro Valverde to win stage 11 with a 1.5/10 stake EW at 13.0 (1/4 odds top 3) with Betfred.
Bet here:
Back Moreno Moser to win stage 11 with a 0.5/10 stake EW at 51.0 (1/4 odds top 3) with Coral.
Bet here:
