Giro d’Italia Stage 14 will be even tougher than stage 13. Stage 14 will be a brute of a stage with multiple mountain climbs and similar to stage 13 a fast descent to the finish line.
The Route
Stage 14 is 210kms of climbing as the Giro enters The Dolomites. The stage starts rather sedately on the flat in Alpago but the climbing starts from about the 23km mark and doesn’t really stop all day.
Yesterday the break surprised me in that two riders managed to outlast the GC riders. The size of the breakaway helped a lot but now we have Movistar with the race leader Andrey Amador, the tactics will be a little different in stage 14.
There will be a break as the riders on contention for the king of the mountains jersey will aim to capture points prior to the expected attacks by Nibali and his Astana team.
The first climb of the day, the Passo Pordoi is actually 70kms in length. Let me repeat that – 70KMS IN LENGTH! This will be an absolutely brutal day even if the early slopes of this climb are fairly gentle. We can expect huge numbers of riders to be put in difficulty 40kms from the start of the stage.
The mid-section of the stage features three climbs – 2 x category 2 and a category 3 in the space of 40kms after the Passo Pordoi. I think the race will be calm in this section with the break riders fighting to stay in front. The final 50kms feature the nasty category 1 Passo Giau and the category 2 Passo Valparola. Expect the leading group to be whittled down to 15-18 riders on the Passo Giau and that group to be decimated on the final climb.
This stage is for the GC riders!
Who to back in Giro d’Italia Stage 14
I have to eat my hat a little. Vincenzo Nibali was a lot stronger in stage 13 than I thought he would be. Nibali initiated a couple of short quick attacks on the second to last climb and dropped some of his rivals. Ultimately, he never pushed on with his attacks and his GC rivals caught him on both occasions. I’m not sure whether he couldn’t sustain those attacks or if he was testing his rivals fitness ahead of stage 14 where he plans to attack at 100%. He is a decent price at 6.00-7.00 today.
Now that Amador has the Maglia Rosa, Movistar will have to ride at the front of the race and control the tempo. They have the riders to do this in the high mountains but there are rumours of fractions in the team with Alejandro Valverde making comments in the last few days about Amador and Giovanni Visconti not riding for the team. In stage 13 Valverde seemed able to handle Nibali’s accelerations quite well and is favourite today at 5.00-6.00.
Esteban Chaves is looking better as the race continues. Stage 14 could be his day. He definitely has the explosiveness to counter any moves by Nibali or Valverde and like yesterday has a really good price at 13.0 – a super EW choice today.
Rafal Majka was also able to match Nibali on the climbs in stage 13 with relative ease. He stuck close to Nibali and this bodes well for his chances in stage 14. The one disadvantage is the ending of the stage – downhill which favours Nibali and Valverde.
Steven Kruijswijk is also handling the early mountain stages well. He is a really strong climber but he was dropped after the first of Nibali’s attacks yesterday. His career record suggests that he will lose a little time across the mountain stages to the riders who finish on the podium in Grand Tours. I cannot back him today.
My overall selection Ilnur Zakarin was surprisingly dropped twice towards the top of the second to last climb on stage 13. He never dropped more than about 30 metres from Nibali but it concerned me that he was unable to stay with the other favourites. Ultimately, he and Amador (also dropped) were able to rejoin the front group and not lose any time. The multiple falls on the ITT and the fact he is quickly isolated on climbs as his team-mates are not able to keep with the front group weaken his case in stage 14.
Giro d’Italia Stage 14 Tips
Back Vincenzo Nibali to win Stage 14 with a 1.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 7.0 with Paddy Power.
WON – Back Esteban Chaves to win Stage 14 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at13.0 with Paddy Power.
Back both here:
