I was upset with the stage 17 result having backed Giacomo Nizzolo to win. The sprinters teams really messed up the chase – there was no way two riders should have been able to escape in the final kilometre! Don’t expect the sprinters to be involved in the finale of Giro d’Italia Stage 18. The GC riders will be at the front once more.
The Route
Stage 18 is the longest of this years Giro. The route covers 244kms from Muggiò to Pinerolo – a distance that will cause more weariness in a tired peloton.
The stage is pretty much flat for the first 100kms then rises very gradually for a further 60kms. Around the 175kms mark the terrain becomes hilly with a small climb at this point followed by a short descent and 15kms of gentle slope.
The stage will really kick-off at the foot of the category 2 Pramartino climb. This climb isn’t that tough but it starts at 215km and is 5kms long. This is where the GC riders will race flat-out to try to gain some distance before a tricky technical descent leading into the finish at Pinerolo.
There will be a breakaway but there is likely to be a lot of nervousness amongst the GC riders in the last stage before returning to the high mountains. The GC teams will be vying for the best road position and I could see them chasing down a break as there are bonus seconds on the line which could make the difference of an extra place in the classification come Sunday. Were a break to feature riders outside the top 20 then there is a small chance it could succeed. I think this would be a surprise.
Who can win in Pinerolo?
Alejandro Valverde must be considered as a serious threat to win his second stage of the 2016 Giro. He has the explosive ability to get over the Pramartino climb, he can descend and he is the best sprinter amongst the GC riders. He won’t distance race leader Steven Kruijswijk but gaining 10 bonus seconds in a sprint finish moves him closer to 2nd placed rider Esteban Chaves, who is unlikely to gain time bonuses in a sprint for the line. Valverde at his current 13.00 price is a fantastic EW shout.
If Vincenzo Nibali was on form he too would be a strong choice as stage winner. He has lost time on the last 3 hilly/mountain stages and I don’t see him winning a stage in this Giro.
Diego Ulissi is the other top 15 rider who this stage really suits and he is likely to be the biggest threat to Valverde. Ulissi is currently favourite for the stage at a price around the 6.5-8.0 mark. This is a decent EW price but can he beat Valverde in a sprint when there are time bonuses and podium places on the line?
Andrey Amador is a rider who could return to the front of the race in Stage 18. He is possibly the best descender in the front group and has already escaped on a downhill run to the finish in this years race. He is unlikely to be closely marked but you would have to think ‘team orders’ probably prevail in the Movistar team’. 101.00 is a high EW price though and I will take that with a small bet.
Team orders too would eliminate Giovanni Visconti (priced at 11.0) from contention – although I will say this is exactly the sort of Grand Tour stage he has won in the past. There is more value in Amador’s price however.
In terms of breakaway riders you could select almost anyone – but I will mention riders who can at least climb well. Two 2016 Giro stage winners, Gianluca Brambilla and Tim Wellens (both 19.0) are in the top ten in bookies prices. They are both sufficiently down on GC for the GC riders teams to not chase if thats what the GC teams want.
Other riders who could feature include a duo from Team Sky – Nicholas Roche (19.0) and David Lopez (67.0). Both have tried in recent days to get into breaks and are strong enough to get over the final climb in a small break group.
Jo Dombrowski featured in the front group on the hectic Stage 16 until the final 15kms. His team, Canondale have had a wretched race and this is the last chance they have to go for a stage win. Dombrowki is a decent EW price at 67.0.
The Gazprom-Rusvelo team have put riders into contention for stage wins in this final week of the race. Sergey Firsanov (26.0) could continue with this emergence and feature in a breakaway.
Georg Preidler has a high price for tomorrow at 67.0. I could see some interest in this – he climbs well and has gone to close to victory in the mountains in this years race. He would love to make amends at being pipped for victory by Esteban Chaves at the weekend.
Giro d’Italia Stage 18 Tips
Back Alejandro Valverde to win Stage 18 with a 1.0/10 EW stake (1/4 odds top 3) at 13.0 with Skybet.
Back Georg Preidler to win Stage 18 with a 0.5/10 EW stake (1/4 odds top 3) at 41.0 with Skybet.
Back Andrey Amador to win Stage 18 with a 0.5/10 EW stake (1/4 odds top 3) at 101.0 with Skybet.
Back them here:
Back Jo Dombrowski to win Stage 18 with a 0.5/10 EW stake (1/4 odds top 3) at 67.0 with Bet365.
Back him here:
