In stage 18 the break got away and stayed until the finish line. I picked the right teams to be in the break but missed on the riders. Giro d’Italia Stage 19 will be much different as the race enters the Alps and the really high mountains for two punishing stages.
The Route
Stage 19 is at 164kms some 80kms
shorter than stage 18 but it features the ‘Cima Coppi‘, the highest point of the race with the snow covered 2,744m Agnello climb.
The lead in to the Agnello climb starts at 20kms and continues until the summit is reached at 106.5kms. From the top there is a fast ride down into the valley before the stage ends with a punishing 12km long category 1 climb into Risoul.
This will definitely be a day for the top 10 riders and their teams. I’m sure Damiano Cunego will try and escape to claim the mountain points on the Agnello but I’m not sure the GC teams will allow any break to get too far up the road.
Stage 19 is all about movement in the GC. Movistar, Tinkoff, Katusha and Orica-Greenedge will want to test race leader Steven Kruijswijk’s Lotto team early. If they can eliminate his team-mates they can then attack him and see if one or more riders can put some time into him. I’m not sure they will succeed in stage 19.
The really interesting battle probably involves the riders in 2nd-5th on the GC given that Kruijswijk has a 3 minute lead and he has looked imperious. The gap from Esteban Chaves in 2nd to Ilnur Zakarin in 5th is 1 minute 50 seconds. In between sit Alejandro Valverde, who seems to have recovered from a poor day in the mountains on stage 14 and a fast fading Vincenzo Nibali. Nibali may not even start tomorrow, pending the results of some blood tests carried out on Wednesday. If he is shown to be sick he has advised the media that he will retire form the race. The other three have all had poor days – Valverde on stage 14; Chaves surprisingly on stage 16 and Zakarin in the mountain ITT and to a lesser extent on stage 14. If any of them have a repeat performance in stage 19 the GC could change drastically.
The Mountain Goats – Old Guard vs new Guard
If the stage is a pure GC fight then its the three younger riders Steven Kruijswijk, Esteban Chaves and Ilnur Zakarin vs Alejandro Valverde and Vincenzo Nibali.
Kruijswijk needs to defend his lead and has looked like the strongest climber in the race so far and he is bookies favourite today at 5.0. Can Kruijswijk finally win a stage? His closest challenger overall, Chaves needs to defend his second place and if the leader shows any signs of weakness try to attack Kruijswijk. he was the only GC rider that could match Kruijswijk on stage 14 – winning that day. He is currently second favourite for stage 19 at 6.0. Zakarin needs to attack again today, like on stage 16, if he has aspirations to get onto the podium. He, along with Kruijswijk and Valverde, managed to drop Chaves and the rest that day. Today he might be hoping to drop Valverde too! Zakarin is priced at 13.0-14.0 – a good EW selection.
Valverde seems to have recovered from the collapse on stage 14. He stayed with the lead group on stage 16 winning the stage in sprint. Can he do the same over the highest mountains today? I’m not sure he will and neither will Vincenzo Nibali. He clearly looks way off the pace – having dropped time on multiple stages. The chances of a stage win today are very slim.
The joker in the pack is a breakaway. I got badly stung yesterday and this is why I can only suggest small stakes on my selections today. If there is a break it would need to contain decent climbers to get to the end. A rider like Mikel Nieve or John Atapuma might have a chance at victory. Nieve is a stage winner this year and Atapuma came oh-so-close. They are priced at 21.0 and 29.0 respectively. You can’t rule out one of the Cannondale or Gazprom riders featuring – the difficult question is which one.
I really do think Stage 19 is for the GC riders – the bonus seconds at the end could be vital in the podium chase. I’m backing the young guard.
Giro d’Italia Stage 19 Bets
Back Steven Kruijswijk to win stage 19 with a 1.25/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 5.0 with Paddy Power.
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WON – Back Esteban Chaves to win stage 19 with a 1.25/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 6.0 with Skybet.
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Back Ilnur Zakarin to win stage 19 with a 1.00/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 14.0 with Bet365.
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