Well stage 19 was a real turn-up for the books. An even more surprising result than the mountain ITT last sunday. Two crashes, including race leader Steven Kruijswijk and a stupendous even miraculous return to form from Vincenzo Nibali. The race winner will be decided tomorrow on Giro d’Italia Stage 20 and I think Nibali fans have a great chance of being very happy!
Thankfully, Kruijswijk managed to continue and whilst Ilnur Zakarin’s is now out of the race with a broken collar-bone it looked like his condition was going to much worse given the severity of his crash.
The Route
Amazingly stage 20 will be the race decider and there are three riders in contention. This stage is an absolute brute with three category 1 climbs and a short category 3 climb at the end in Sant’Anna di Vinadio.
After the turmoil of stage 19 and the brilliant tactical display by Astana we know this stage will won by a rider fighting for the Maglia Rosa.
Stage 20 climbs right from the start in Guillestre reaching the top of the Col de Vars at 19kms. Expect some riders to go away early looking for King of the Mountains points and like yesterday as bridges for the GC riders later in the race.
I expect the pace to really kick up on the second climb – the Col de la Bonette. This is a punishing 20kms climb. Expect Astana to control the race with Orica- Greenedge countering their moves. I would hope that Kruijswijk’s Lotto team send riders up the road so he can get some assistance on the second and third climbs. At the top of this climb I don’t think there will be more than 15-20 riders in the front group.
The long descent may see the group increase in size but the final climb – the Colle Della Lombarda starting at 103kms is where I think Astana will attack. Scarponi will be a huge asset to Nibali once more and amazingly I can see Nibali winning the stage and probably moving into the Maglia Rosa tomorrow. He beat his rivals fairly easily in stage 19. We don’t know how much the effort to play catch-up has taken out of Kruijswijk. The battle is now between two riders, current leader Esteban Chaves and Nibali for the race win.
Chaves or Nibali?
Chaves does have a couple fo things in his favour in stage 20. He has a lead and he can mark Nibali and to a lesser extent, Kruijswijk throughout the stage. They have to gain time on him. IF he can stick with Nibali he will win the race.
On paper that sounds relatively straight-forward. Of course on the mountain roads it is anything but. I was surprised by how much time Nibali was able to take out of Chaves on the final climb in stage 19. With the bonus seconds he gained almost a minute in the last 5kms or so. A repeat of this tomorrow and Nibali takes the lead of the race. Chaves looked a little like Nibali earlier in the week and even although he leads there must be doubts about his ability to keep the lead.
On the other hand did Nibali leave everything on the road in stage 19. How will he recover from that super-human effort? I suspect the confidence gained will provide him with a huge boost and he is clearly the rider to beat.
I haven’t included Steven Kruijswijk as a three-way battle here for two reasons. One – towards the top of the yesterday he was really struggling to stay on the wheel of Nibali and Chaves. I think he would have been dropped on the final climb of the day. Two – I’m not convinced he can come back from the crash and exertion of the chase to win stage 20. Losing the Giro would be cruel on him but a rider must be able to go up and come down.
The time bonuses on the line might actually decide the race winner. The gaps could be that close. Due to their importance I think there is zero opportunity for a break to win the stage. I also think the overall battle will have a time difference of less than 10 second at stage end and I have a feeling Astana blue will prevail.
It would be good to see Scarponi get some reward for a brilliant effort supporting Nibali in this race but I think he will be used like yesterday.
Giro d’Italia Stage 20 Bets
Back the man I said would not win a stage in this Giro – Vincenzo Nibali to win Stage 20 with a 2.5/10 stake at 2.62 with Paddy Power.
Bet here:
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