Giro d’Italia Stage 9 is the first of two proper Individual Time Trials (ITT) of the 2016 race. I don’t see opening stage prologues as time trials unless they are over 12kms.
I’m now on a streak of three wins in a row thanks to Gianluca Brambilla yesterday. Can I make it four in a row prior to the second rest day on Monday?
The Route
The timetrial covers 40.5kms of rolling hills with plenty of technical turns and descents. The ITT starts in Radda in Chianti and slowly descends into Greve in Chinati. There is a tough climb, the Panzano in Chinati in the second part of the stage. From the peak of this climb the remainder of the stage is a fast descent to the finish line.
The weather is likely to play its part in the outcome of Stage 9. Thunderstorms are predicted between 1pm-2pm. This will make parts of the course treacherous, especially the tight twisting descents. Assuming the storms clear as expected the later starters might gain a significant advantage, as the roads should dry out fairly quickly.
The Challengers for Individual Time Trial Glory
We need to start with Tom Dumoulin who surprisingly struggled really badly on the final climb in Stage 8 and lost his overall lead. He won the prologue and has a super recent record in the ITT’s including on courses similar to this. He won the mountain ITT in the 2016 Tour of Romandie beating a stronger set of time trial riders than he will face on Sunday. His current price is in the 2.0-2.1 range and thats a little too short for my liking.
Fabian Cancellera is the premier ITT rider of the last decade. This is his final season as a professional rider and I would love him to win a stage in this Giro. If he is going to win an ITT in the 2016 race it has to be Stage 9 because the final ITT next week is a race up a mountain and he has no chance of victory there. I just cannot back him here because of the illness and because he hasn’t looked like the Fabian of old this far.
My Overall (and Mountains Classification) selection Ilnur Zakarin now sits second overall and I think he will ascend to top spot in the General Classification on Sunday – barring mishaps. He is a strong time trial rider and has great form in the discipline with 4th place in a similar ITT in the recent Tour of Romandie. His price at in the 15.0-18.0 makes Zakarin the perfect EW choice!
I tipped Bob Jungels to win the Prologue but he finished outside the podium. The prologue course was too short for him and the distance is much better for him in Stage 9. He will do well but I think he misses the podium. He dropped time on stage 8 and that might carry over today.
Of the other GC riders the other that interests me as an EW choice is Rigoberto Uran. He has been anonymous so far but he is a really good ITT history and is well priced at 21.0-31.0 with various bookmakers.
If the weather is unsettled or stormy then a rider like Stefan Kung or Primoz Roglic might feature very high in the results. As they are not an overall threat they might take more risks to win the stage on a wet course than a rider like Zakarin who is fighting for the Maglio Rosa on stage 21.
Bets for Giro d’Italia Stage 9
Back Ilnur Zakarin to win stage 9 with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 the odds top 3) at 18.0 with Bet365.
Bet here:
Back Rigoberto Uran to win stage 9 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 the odds top 3) at 31.0 with Netbet.
Bet here:
