The second stage of Paris-Nice 2017 has the looks of the classic bunch sprint finish. It could be straight from any Tour de France race and clearly favours the quick men.
The weather could once me be a factor following a great stage one on Sunday. The way the race split and the time gained by Alaphilippe, Henao and Martin over Porte et al means there will be more attacking than usual in the coming stages. Those that lost time will have to be super vigilant on stages 2 and 3.
Paris-Nice 2017 Stage 2 – The Profile
Stage Two is 195kms in length from Rochefort-En-Yvelines to Amilly. There are a number of small rises during the stage. Only one of them is deemed tough enough to be classified and that comes at the 10.5km marker.
Expect there to be some frantic attacks on this climb. Riders from some of the smaller teams try to grab the KOTM jersey for their team and sponsors.
There are a couple of sprints at 31.5kms and 156.5kms which will likely be gobbled up by a breakaway. The breakaway has a chance of leading for a long time on Monday’s stage given the terrain. The sprint teams should easily be able to calculate ‘the catch’ inside the final 10-15kms. I imagine the scenario will be for the break to be closed down by the 180km distance point. There is a longish descent from this point and the fear will be that if the break is still more than 1 minute clear it could make it to the finish line.
Paris-Nice 2017 Stage 2 – Favourites
This is all about the really quick men. The riders I mentioned in yesterday’s stage 1 preview will be at the forefront of the sprint finish.
Marcel Kittel (Quick-Step Floors) has more wins than anyone else so far in 2017. He has been dominant on the flat sprints in a number of races and is clearly the man to beat in Amilly. Once more he has a decent lead-out train and seems to be riding with a huge amount of confidence. He will be very hard to beat and the bookmakers have him as a very short favourite at 1.90. Kittel fell away in the final 3kms on Sunday but Monday’s finish is much more to his liking. These odds are too short for me to back.
Arnaud Demare (FDJ) has been impressive early in the season and beat Julian Alaphilippe (Quick-Step Floors) in the sprint on Sunday. I was really impressed with the confidence he had as he closed down on the Quick-Step rider and won fairly comfortably. I’m amazed he can be backed at 15.0 for the sprint in Amilly! He is also defending the leaders jersey = extra incentive to do well once more.
Andre Greipel (Lotto Soudal) was caught between a rock and a hard place as he made the front group on Sunday. He had to work for his team leader Tony Gallopin as the team tried to gain time on the favourites group behind them on the road. Greipel did a huge amount of work and couldn’t contest the sprint. He looked gutted coming over the line. I think he will be back in the mix on Monday and can be backed at 5.50.
Alexander Kristoff (Katusha) got a creditable third and a Place win for me in stage one. Kristoff was unable to match the climbing prowess of Demare but the finish in stage two is flatter and I like his chances a little more. Odds of 9.0 create another EW opportunity.
Jon Degenkolb (Trek Segafredo) also missed getting into the front group on Sunday. He then had to work for team leader Alberto Contador as the second group tried to minimise the time losses for their GC riders. Degenkolb should be in the mix on Monday and odds of 19.0 might tempt a few.
The other sprinters
Nacer Bouhanni (Cofidis) arguably has the best lead-out train at Paris-Nice. This is because his team have only one goal here – stage wins. Some of his main rivals teams e.g. Quick-Step Floors, also have some riders with general classification aims. These riders won’t help their sprinters in the finale of the flat stages. Bouhanni will probably win a stage here this week but I’ve been unsuccesful backing him in the past. He blows too hot and cold for me and was the sprinter to really lose out in stage 1. He didn’t even make it into the second group on the road. I’m not tempted at all – even at 11.0.
Dylan Groenewegen (LottoNL-Jumbo) is joint third favourite for the stage win at 9.00. His team completely missed the split in the peloton on Sunday and the riders they had in the second group were quickly dropped too. I like him and he can be explosive but I would rank him in the second group of sprinters in this race.
Bryan Coquard (Direct Energie) made the front group on Sunday. However, Coquard was dropped inside the finale 3kms as the roads started to go upwards. He has still to win a race at the top-level and I just cannot see him beating all of the riders in the favourites group. The bookmakers back me up as Coquard is 26.0
Nikias Arndt (Team Sunweb) is another who missed the breaks in the race on stage one. He was sensational in winning the Cadel Evans Road Race in January. My concern is that his wins in the last two seasons have come in unconventional sprints and in the absence of the big guns. Odds of 51.0 look about right.
Paris-Nice 2017 Stage 2 – Tips
Back Andre Greipel to win stage two with a 0.75/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 5.50 with Paddy Power.
PLACED – Bet on Arnaud Demare to win stage two with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 15.0 with Paddy Power.
Back both here:
Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2017
