Stage 8 of Paris-Nice 2017 takes place on Sunday and is the final days racing of the event. Three riders sit within 31 seconds of the race lead so the stage should be full of attacks.
Richie Porte gave me my second stage win in two days with his super finish in stage 6. If only his team had kept him in the front groups on the early stages of the race.
Paris-Nice 2017 Stage 8 – The Profile
Stage 8 is another mountain stage starting and finishing in Nice. The stage is 115.5kms in length and features five categorised climbs. The elevations are lower than the riders faced yesterday, but are still tough coming at the end of a weeks racing.
I like the fact the stage is fairly short as this type of stage usually creates full-on attacking from the start.
The first 15kms of the stage are the flattest of the day. Then the climbs come back-to-back. A series of three category 2 climbs are ascended between the 21km and 51.5kms point of the stage. They are all around 6.5-6.5km in distance at 4.4-5.5%. Last year, in an effort to make up some time on the leaders Alberto Contador attacked very early in the stage during this section.
At the 60km marker the riders start the approaches to the category 1 Cote de Peille – 6.5kms at 6.9%. This could be the launching point for a GC challenge by Contador or Dan Martin. The roads descent back to Nice and then climb again on the Cote d’Eze. This is another category 1 at 5.7% for 7.7kms. The peak is at 100.5kms leaving the riders with a very fast descent back to Nice.
Paris-Nice 2017 Stage 8 – The Favourites
I have a feeling the outcome of stage 8 will be eerily similar to stage 7 with 4 riders being in contention for the stage win.
Sergio Henao (Team Sky) has a 30 second lead going into the final stage. Team Sky will defend all day to ensure neither his closest challenger do not escape during the stage. As Henao can play a defensive role I don’t like his chances of the stage win at 17.0. Henao will be happy to be in the front group crossing the finish line with his rivals. He has a big enough lead that in this scenario the bonus seconds will have little consequence to the GC. The big question is can he close out the first World Tour level stage race win of his career?
Dan Martin (Quick-Step Floors) as predicted in my preview for stage 7 is now the leading Quick-Step Floors rider. He sits 2nd on GC some 30 seconds behind Henao. The terrain on stage 8 suits Martin as the climbs are shorter than those ridden on Saturday. Martin has a strong team and is a real threat to Henao for the overall win. Odds of 10.0 have EW value.
Alberto Contador (Trek Segafredo) showed some of his old pomp on Saturday gaining time on his main rivals with his second place. He now sits 3rd on GC – 1 second behind Martin. Last year he was in a similar position and attacked really early on the final stage to try to break his rivals. Will we be set for a repeat again tomorrow? I think he will will be aggressive but cannot see him winning the stage – 11.0 seems to short.
Richie Porte (BMC Racing) proved my pre-race predictions correct in proving he is the best climber in the race on the queen stage. I think he has a great shot at winning two in a row in Nice on Sunday. If these four favourites make it to a small front group I think he could be the best sprinter. He is second favourite at 8.0 amd I’m tempted EW.
Paris-Nice 2017 Stage 8 – The Rest
The other riders in the top ten are too far behind to challenge for the overall race win and probably even the podium places.
Gorka Izaguirre (Movistar) is 4th exactly 1 minute off the race lead. I imagine he will be looking to keep hold of that position on Sunday’s stage. The rider in 5th – Julian Alaphilippe (Quick-Step Floors) might be a threat to Izaguirre in the GC and a possible stage winner. The profile of stage 8 has some similarities to stage 6 except it finishes on the flat. If Alaphilippe has recovered from the exertion on stage 7 I think he is a danger man. He is exceptionally quick in a sprint from a small group and I think 6.5 favourite is correct.
Ilnur Zakarin (Katusha) is 6th and wasn’t as good as I had hoped on stage 6. When the hammer went down from Trek-Seagafredo he quickly dropped away. Zakarin is over a minute behind Contador in third and he doesn’t seem to have the legs to be an attacking threat on Sunday. He has no chance in a sprint from a small bunch – odds of 41.0 reflect this.
Jon Izaguirre (Bahrain Merida) sits 7 second behind Zakarin in 7th overall. Izaguirre has been succesful before escaping from a front group. He might fancy his chances of overhauling Zakarin on GC and he might be given some leeway by the top 3 if he attacks late in the stage. He can be backed at 19.0 – not for me.
Tony Gallopin (Lotto Soudal) is on 9th position overall. Gallopin is over 3 minutes off the race lead. This is clearly a lafrge enough time gap for him to be no threat for a top 5 placing. He too could be given more freedom than earlier in the race to try to obtain a stage win. 15.0 looks okay for a small EW bet.
Simon Yates (Orica-Scott) dropped a lot of time on Saturday and now sits in 10th place. Yates won stage 6 in an opportunist manner. If his energy levels are okay he may see Stage 8 as another stage to target for a potential win. Odds of 26.0 afre similar to those on offer for stage 6 – a small EW maybe?
Michael Matthews (Sunweb) has super value at 34.0 for stage 8 success. He has been close to the podium in the race with a 4th place in a stage. A win here would be great for the team. I think Matthews can get over the climbs in this stage around the front group – provided Contador doesn’t go crazy. From a front group of 10-15 riders I would back him in a sprint finish in Nice.
Paris-Nice 2017 Stage 8 – Tips
Bet on Julian Alaphilippe to win stage 8 with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 6.50 with Bet365.
Back Michael Matthews to win stage 8 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 34.0 with Bet365.
Bet on Richie Porte to win stage 8 with a 0.75/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 8.0 with Bet365.
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