Stage 3 of Paris-Nice 2017 takes place on Tuesday. The stage will be a little tougher than the two preceding days racing in terms of terrain as it contains two climbs including a category 2. Of course the riders hope the weather isn’t bad once more and a third day of chaos ensues. The forecast is for rain – but showers and the temperature will rise to 9-10C.
Paris-Nice Stage 3 – The Profile
Stage 3 takes the riders 190kms from Chablis to Chalon-Sur-Saone. As the riders make their way south the roads are starting to become more undulating.
The stage features two categorised climbs. The first is a category 3 that if peaked at 128kms. This is the Cote de Grandmont and is 2.4kms in length at 4.9%. From this point the roads drop until the base of the Cote de Charreccy at 162kms. The Cote de Charreccy is a category 2 climb – 2.1kms in length at 6.7%.
Neither climb is tough by Alpine standards but the second one could be the key to the stage. The top of the Cote de Charreccy comes at 164kms. The finish line is only 26kms away and the roads are essentially descending and a flat in this section of the course. I would anticipate the sprint teams with sprinters that can climb and the GC teams will push the pace on the Cote de Charreccy. They will want to reduce the peloton to give their men the chance at the stage win.
In some ways the final 60kms of the stage is a little similar to Milan-San Remo – the one day classic that will be raced in two weekends time. Results there will give us an indication of the types of sprinters that will be in the front group here in Paris-Nice on Tuesday.
Paris-Nice Stage 3 – Favourites
This should be one for the sprinters and they dominate the betting market.
Marcel Kittel (Quick-Step Floors) is favourite once more for stage success on Tuesday at 2.75. He has fallen away in the finale on stages 1 and 2 and tends to falter when there are climbs close to the finish line. I rule him out completely as I think he gets dropped on the Cote de Charreccy and won’t get back to the front again.
Every other rider is 7.00+ which is a huge surprise. Race leader Arnaud Demarre (FDJ) and Andre Greipel (Lotto-Soudal) are both 7.0. Demare has a win and a third so far and has featured in both peloton splits. I was a little shocked he didn’t win again on Monday. Greipel couldn’t quite get to the front in the bunch sprint on Monday. Greipel’s positioning wasn’t great entering the last 750 metres of the stage and this cost him. Both men have expended huge amounts of energy in the first two days and that may cost them on Tuesday.
John Degenkolb (Trek Segafredo) can be backed at 10.0 for stage 3 success. I’m happy that he is approaching his best form following last season horror training crash. Colbrelli aside, he looked to have the most speed at the finish line on Monday and was stage runner-up. He should have few issues with the climb and should be in the mix in Chalon-Sur-Saone.
Dylan Groenewegen (Lotto NL-Jumbo) finished 4th in stage 2 after missing the key break on Sunday. He was close to the podium spots and odds of 10.0-15.0 look decent for an EW bet.
Alexander Kristoff (Katusha) had a third in stage 1 and a slightly disappointing 9th in stage 2. His form is a little better than that and 12.0 could tempt a few. I’m on the fence and the team have GC hopes with Ilnur Zakarin which may reduce the support he gets in the run-in to the line.
Sonny Colbrelli (Bahrain-Merida) had the best ride of his career on Monday. He hasn’t beaten that calibre of field before – now the question is can he back it up? The bookmakers show some reservation with odds of 19.0. Again I’m not sure if Monday’s win was a one-off or not and will pass.
Paris-Nice Stage 3 – Outsiders
If the weather is bad and a serious attack occurs on the Cote de Charreccy then the puncheurs might come to the fore. A number of riders that you could look at include:
- Julian Alaphilippe (Quick-Step Floors) – 2nd overall and looking incredibly strong – odds of 151.0;
- Michael Matthews (Sunweb) – not been at his brilliant best but was 12th yesterday. Can still win from a depleted group – stages odds are 51.0;
- Philippe Gilbert (Quick-Step Floors) at one stage looked like he could steal stage 2 from under the pelotons noses. His form is the best we’ve seen for 24 months and 67.0 offers some value;
- Oliver Naesen (AG2R La Mondiale) has flown under the radar of many but he is racking up top 10 finishes in races including 7th in stage 2. I’m tempted by a small EW bet at 67-0-81.0;
- Tony Gallopin (Lotto-Soudal) is high in the GC and is the explosive type of rider that could get away in a small group over the Cote de Charreccy. You could do worse at 67.0.
Paris-Nice Stage 3 – Tips
PLACED – Bet on John Degenkolb to win stage 3 with a 0.75/10 stake EW at 12.0 (1/4 odds top 3) with Bet365.
Back Oliver Naesen to win stage 3 with a 0.50/10 stake EW at 81.0 (1/4 odds top 3) with Bet365.
Bet on Dylan Groenewegen to win stage 3 with a 0.75/10 stake EW at 10.0 (1/4 odds top 3) with Bet365.
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