Tour de France 2017 – General Classification
The biggest title in the biggest race of the cycling season is the Maillot Jaune or Yellow Jersey given to the winner of the Tour de France. This year it looks like we have a two-way battle for the race win. A number of other riders will be looking to make their own moves on the famous jersey.
As with all of my ‘classification’ preview’s I will include details of the race route. This provides a race overview and helps me explain why I make my choices.
Tour de France 2017 – The Route
The 2017 race covers 3,540kms over the traditional 21 stages. This is the 104th edition of the famous race. It starts in Germany on Saturday 1st July and ends in Paris on Sunday 23rd July. There are two rest days during the race – on 10th and 17th July. These enable the riders to recover from their exertions and are particularly helpful to riders who crash.
The 21 stages can be broken down into stage ‘types’. They include:
- an unsually high number of sprinters stages (9);
- hilly stages (5);
- mountain stages (5) but only 3 mountain top finishes and the one of those is on a category 2 climb;
- ITT – individual time trials (2) but only covering a total of 38kms.
As we can see on the map profile to the left – the route jumps around a little. The key section for the GC battle will be stages 7, 8, 12, 17, 18 and the final ITT on stage 20. As TDF routes go this is probably one of the most straightforward of the last decade. It has been argued amongst the cycling media that the organisers have created this ‘easier’ course deliberately. They want to see closer racing. That makes good TV and appeases the sponsors. This is not the first time the route has been ‘manipulated’. In most cases it didn’t work as ‘the cream always rises to the top‘.
Tour de France 2017 – General Classification – The Big Two
Chris Froome (Team Sky) arrives as 3 time winner of the Tour de France and is chasing three wins in a row following success in 2015 and 2016. Froome knows how to win this race – he is a dominant climber and ITT rider. The one weakness he had was descending. Froome worked on this and is now one of the best descenders amongst the GC riders. He has experience with the demands of the media circus that follows the race. He arrives with an incredible team behind him – featuring as many as 4 other riders who could finish in the top 10 in their own right!
However, his preparation for this years TDF has been patchy at best. In the three years Froome won the TDF (2013, 2015 and 2016) he also won the Dauphine. This year he looked under-cooked and only managed to finish 4th overall. He dropped time to Porte and Fuglsang in the ITT and in the mountains which was a surprise. In total he has only 19 days of racing in his legs. Part of this is because he is going for the TDF-Vuelta double (again). Last year he won the TDF but managed 2nd at the Vuelta in part because he lacked energy for the Vuelta.
If at his best Froome is the best Grand Tour rider and I think what was once his biggest weakness – descending – may help him won this years race. Stages 9, 15 and 17 are mountain stages that finish in a valley. They each feature fast steep descents in the final 20-40kms. At the Dauphine on the final stage Froome took about 40 seconds from Porte on the final descent of the day. I feel this was purely preparation for the TDF. Froome can be backed as high as 2.62 – win only at those odds.
Richie Porte (BMC Racing) is experiencing the best season of his career. He has won pretty much every stage race he has entered bar the Fuglsang shock at the Dauphine. Porte is climbing as well as ever and his ITT results are the best I’ve seen. He has a strong team in support but it lacks the high mountain goats that Froome can call on. Porte is favourite with some bookies as low as 2.38 but as high as 3.0 and 2nd favourite with others.
The negatives – Porte has yet to win a Grand Tour – his best finish is 5th at last years TDF. He has yet to lead a Grand Tour and have to deal with the extra 60-90 minutes of media interviews before he can warm down each day. That brings a type of pressure that will be new to him should he take the race lead. Porte also has shown an ability to mess things up in Grand Tours. He usually has a day where he misses the key break or gets a mechanical at the wrong time. Porte is a poor descender – as Froome proved in the Dauphine. He could lose as much as 90 second on the descents on stages 9, 15 and 17 combined! That may cost him the race.
On form Porte looks like the best pick but if pushed I think Froome wins again. Experience counts in this race. Art these odds I’m not sure I can back either.
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Tour de France 2017 – General Classification – Podium Chasers
Nairo Quintana (Movistar) was aiming for a Giro/TDF double this year. One mountain stage aside Quintana looked off the boil at the Giro. He did well in the end to sneak onto the podium. There are a number of concerns for me with backing Quintana, even EW at 8.50. He rode the Giro and had to ride full gas for all 21 stages as the race wasn’t decided until the final day. That must take a lot out of his legs. Quintana doesn’t really have great racing nouse and this is especially the case at the TDF. He lacks the instinct to know when to attack and often ends up chasing. This is a shame because he is on par as a climber with Froome and Porte. I also think he doesn’t believe he can beat Froome in this race. Not for me.
Alberto Contador (Trek-Segafredo) is looking for a final Grand Tour win to cap an excellent career. As mentioned in my KOTM preview I tink the stars would need to align perfectly for Contador to win this years TDF. He is clearly on the downside of his career and his rivals are so strong. Odds of 17.0 just about reflect how I feel about his chances – I’m not even tempted by an EW bet as I don’t think he makes the podium.
Romain Bardet (AG2R La Mondiale) was runner-up in 2016 but a long way behind Froome. He did beat Quintana and Porte amongst others and Bardet seemed to come out of the race with confidence. He will need that here against a tougher crop of riders but does have EW value at 26.0. His biggest weakness is the ITT and thankfully the lack of ITT kms in this years race will limit his time losses. I’m not convinced he can match Porte and Froome when push comes to shove on the key mountains stages but I think 3rd is doable.
Fabio Aru (Astana) broke out in 2015 winning the Vuelta and finishing 2nd at the Giro. He was poor in 2016 and again in 2017 until he showed better legs in the Dauphine finishing 5th overall. There he was beaten by team-mate Fuglsang but probably arrives at the TDF as team leader. Aru is a very good climber and is another that welcomes the lack of ITT kms. I can’t see him winning but he could challenge for 3rd. You could do worse at 34.0.
Tour de France 2017 – General Classification – Top Ten Riders
Jakob Fuglsang (Astana) is out of contract at season’s end and produced the best result of his career aged 32 this June winning the Dauphine. For the first time in his career he beat both Froome and Porte in a stage race. This was another ‘miracle’ type of result for the team – they are good at them. His best Grand Tour result was 7th in the 2013 TDF. Last year he finished 12th in the Giro. I have a tough time seeing him in the top 5 – avoid at odds of 21.0
Alejandro Valverde (Movistar) was having a sensational season until he struggled in the Dauphine finishing 9th. Prior to this he had won every multi-stage event he took part in plus two Ardennes Classics. Valverde has never finished higher than 3rd at the TDF and I cannot see that being matched this year. He is a brilliant rider and a brilliant tactical racer but he has one day in the high mountains at every TDF where he goes pop. 26.0 looks a little light.
Geraint Thomas (Team Sky) probably would have been on the podium at the Giro if not for the ‘motorbike’ crash that decimated Team Sky’s chances. He pulled out of the Giro to recover from the effects of the crash. Thomas should be fresher than the likes of Quintana who finished the Giro. Thomas is a brilliant number two to Froome and has always ridden for his leader. This means in the final week of Grand Tours he tends to slip down the GC. His best Grand Tour results is 15th (2015 & 2016 TDF). He would prefer more ITT kms as that is a strength. A top 10 would be a great result. Race win odds at 67.0 look about right.
Simon Yates (Orica-Scott) will do well to match his brothers 4th place last year. His future is bright with possible Grand Tour podiums but I feel he would have to ride really well to make the top 6 here. I like his climbing ability on all terrains – punchy and high mountains. I feel his team isn’t the best in the high mountains and on some of the hilly classics type of stages. Odds at 126 reflect my thoughts. I feel the same way about his team-mate Esteban Chaves – another rider with his best years ahead. Chaves is more explosive in the high mountains but he looks under-cooked coming here – there is EW potential at 67.0 but not for me.
Tour de France 2017 – General Classification – Outsiders
I’m going to give small write-ups to a number of riders who I feel will outperform their odds. I will also include their odds to finish in the top 10.
Louis Meintjes (UAE Team Emirates) was 8th last year and is one of my picks in the Young Riders Classification. You can back him at 81.0 to win the TDF. I think that is beyond him at his age and in this team (it lacks true mountain support riders). Meintjes is the type that I could see winning a Vuelta in his career but maybe not a TDF. Here I like him to finish in the top 10 at 1.53.
Jon Izaguirre (Bahrain-Merida). Yes, I know his best Grand Tour result is 27th (2015 Giro). I see a lot I like – until this year he rode for Movistar in a mountain domestic role. He was always a support rider for Valverde or Quintana. That meant he never got the chance to work on his GC place. This year, now he is at a new team, he takes on the race leader mantle at many races. He has 4 top 10s in multi-stage events including 6th at the recent Tour du Suisse. Yes, it is unlikely he challenges for the top 5 let alone podium but there is no way he should be as high as 201.0. IN terms of top 10 finish he can be backed at 2.37.
Sergio Henao (Team Sky) can be backed at 301.0. Henao is an excellent climber and improving rider overall. He was 12th here in 2016 and won Paris-Nice in 2017. Yes, he will be a support rider for Froome but if the concerns about Froome’s form are accurate we could see the team switch to other riders. In this scenario that 301.0 will tumble. Even as a support rider for Froome I think he will break into the top 10. He can be backed at 7.0 to finish inside the top 10. I will back both – the top 10 option has value and I love a small EW bet on high odds.
Tour de France 2017 – General Classification – Tips
Bet on Romain Bardet to win the Tour De France with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 26.0 with Paddy Power.
Back Sergio Henao to win the Tour De France with a 0.25/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 301.0 with Paddy Power.
Back both here:
Bet on Jon Izaguirre to finish in the top 10 at the TDF with a 1.0/10 stake at 2.37 with Bet365.
Back Sergio Henao to finish in the top 10 at the TDF with a 1.0/10 stake at 7.00 with Bet365.
Bet on Louis Meintjes to finish in the top 10 at the TDF with a 2.5/10 stake at 1.53 with Bet365.
Back them all here:
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