Tour de France 2017 – King of the Mountains Classification
This is often the most difficult classification to predict in any Grand Tour. It is normally won but a rider who is not the best climber in the peloton. Rather, the rider usually who wins is one who targets the classification at the expense of an overall position. Looking at this years profile and the riders participating it looks like this will be repeated.
The KOTM Jersey is one associated with passion – lots of child cyclists dream of being the best climber. Some riders spend the majority of their Grand Tour careers fighting for the climbers classification. The ‘romance’ with the jersey is strong!
As for each classification preview – I will add a little about the route. I feel this is a decent reference point for the rest of my preview.
Tour de France 2017 – The Route
The 2017 race covers 3,540kms over the traditional 21 stages. Of these there are:
- an unsually high number of sprinters stages (9);
- hilly stages (5);
- mountain stages (5) but only 3 mountain top finishes and the one of those is on a category 2 climb;
- ITT – individual time trials (2) but only covering a total of 38kms.
In the TDF, riders accumulate points won during stages on different types of climbs. These range from category 4 (the easiest and lowest points scoring) all the way to HC or off-category (the toughest with the most points).
For this years TDF – the majority of the points awarded will come in the 5 mountain stages. The 5 hilly stages also will offer a decent number of climbs and points. The sprint stages only feature a small number of lower category climbs so there will not be a great deal of movement in the classifaction on this stages.
Only once in the last 7 races has the eventual race winner also won the KOTM – Chris Froome in 2015.
Tour de France 2017 – King of the Mountains Classification – Favourites
Two riders are clear of the field in the betting markets.
Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) starts as favourite. For the first time in his career he prioritised the Giro d’Italia over the TDF. His gamble didn’t quite come off as he missed the podium in Italy in an oh-so-close race. Due to the energy expended in the Giro, Pinot is not expected to contend for the General Classification in this years TDF. Instead, the bookies like him to go for the KOTM jersey. The plus is that Pinot can definitely climb. The minuses are that he will be tired and he has not shown an inclination to go for minor classification’s in the past in his career. To me the latter outweight the plus and I think odds of 4.33 are way too short.
Rafal Majka (Bora-Hansgrohe) won the KOTM in last years TDF by a decent margin. I think he should be the favourite for this year and odds of 7.0 represent decent value. Majka doesn’t have the ability to place in the top 10 in this years TDF – the field is incredibly strong. Instead, I think he goes for the KOTM as his team take aim at winning two or three of the coloured jerseys available in the race. Majka knows how to pick up points and build a total. He is also explosive enough to counter any rival – provided they are not a Porte or Froome type. Back him.
Tour de France 2017 – King of the Mountains Classification – Non-GC Riders
Pierre Rolland (Canondale) is 3rd favourite at 15.0. Rolland is no longer seen as a GC contender. Now he is a bit of a chancer who aims for stage wins. He has won stages at the TDF and Giro – usually the hilly or mountain type of days where the GC battle is way down the road. I struggle to see Rolland winning the classification. He rode the Giro in May and was ultra-aggressive throughout. He finally grabbed his stage win late in the race (stage 17) and did finish high up in the KOTM classification. My gut feeling is that will have taken too much out of him. Not for me.
Thomas de Gendt (Lotto-Soudal) at 17.0 looks like a better choice. De Gendt is a bit of a break specialist – winning Grand Tour stages at the TDF and Giro in this manner. Last year held the lead in the KOTM classification for 6 stages eventually finishing second to Majka. This season he has looked good at the recent Dauphine – winning the first stage from a large break on hilly terrain. He didn’t race the Giro so should have fresh legs.
Diego Ulissi (UAE Team Emirates) and John Darwin Atapuma (UAE Team Emirates) head their teams challenge at the TDF. Each rider has decent climbing ability – Ulissi is probably better on the steeper punchy climbs and Atapuma in the higher mountains. However, neither has shown the ability to match the elite climbers and both are deficient in ITTs. Hence, they are no threat on GC. They can both be backed at 34.0 and I have to profess a liking to Atapuma. He placed for me in a mountain stage at last years Giro at 126.0. A jersey win for the team would be a super result and I think this is the only one they can realistically target.
Gianluca Brambilla (Quick Step-Floors) won a mountain stage in last years Giro when I tipped him as decent odds. Since that stage he has yet to really replicate that performance except for a stage win at the Vuelta. His 2017 has been poor – only one top ten and that back in January. I like him and feel there is upside but feel 51.0 is about half of what I expected.
Robert Gesink (Lotto NL-Jumbo) is a little like Rolland. He was once a team leader with serious aspirations for GC success. Now he is slipping down the pecking order in his team (behind Roglic and Bennett). Gesink is a decent enough climber – one that could do well in this classification. However, I feel he will be riding as mountain support for Roglic. That will limit his ability to get into breaks and accumulate enough points to challenge Majka and the rest. Avoid at 51.0.
Tour de France 2017 – King of the Mountains Classification – GC Riders
I could make a case that as there are only 5 mountain stages that the GC riders will be in the mix for the KOTM jersey too. The GC battle will be won in the mountains this year with the lack of ITT kms. As these stages are extra important they may be ridden at a ridiculous pace as Sky, BMC Racing et al try to keep their riders at the head of the race. In this scenario, the normal mountain stage breakaways may be marked more closely than in previous years. I think there is a strong chance of this on stages 5, 12 & 18. That still leaves a number of mountain and hilly stages for the riders mentioned above to target.
If you wanted to back a GC rider the best two climbers are Richie Porte (BMC Racing) and Chris Froome (Team Sky). They are also one-two in the GC betting market around the 2.25-2.68 range. Both can be backed at 23.0 for the KOTM and this may represent better value.
Of the other GC riders:
- Nairo Quintana (Movistar) – an excellent climber but he is not really delivering on it at the TDF in the way many expect. He also rode the Giro d’Italia in May. At 23.0 for the KOTM – not for me;
- Alberto Contador (Trek-Segafredo) – I feel his Grand Tour winning days have long gone. Contador excites many because he will attack early and often. He will try to stay in the GC fight and I feel that will limit his chances to match the point accumulating ability of Majka. 21.0 is too short;
- Fabio Aru (Astana) looked a bit better at the recent Dauphine. I think he might fancy his chances in the GC fight and like Contador that impacts his ability to win this classification. Also priced at 23.0;
- Johan Esteban Chaves (Orica-Scott) broke through at the 2016 Giro with an excellent showing especially in the mountains. He has been quiet in 2017 but comes here as joint-leader with Simon Yates. That may limit his days in breaks but of this set of riders I feel he is priced right at 26.0;
- Romain Bardet (AG2R) wants to go one better than his 2nd place on GC in last years race. His target is another podium. If he does try to get into breaks he will be closely marked by the big teams. Not for me at 26.0.
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Tour de France 2017 – King of the Mountains Classification – Team Sky Conundrum
Chris Froome (Team Sky) hasn’t shown anything like his best form so far in 2017. Team Sky tend to go all in for the GC fight early in races. They have shown an ability to adapt especially at the Giro if things go against them. Were Froome to struggle early then they might shift emphasis here too. The team is full of brilliant climbers that could easily win this classification.
Mikel Landa won the KOTM at the Giro in May. Landa is 41.0 to do the same here. Sergio Henao won Paris-Nice and is a brilliant climber. Henao can be backed at 151.0 for the KOTM jersey. Mikel Nieve won the KOTM at the 2016 Giro – he is as high as 201.0 here. The latter two look like great small bet EW selections. I think Landa may pay for his exertions at the Giro.
Tour de France 2017 – King of the Mountains Classification – Tips
Bet on Rafal Majka to win the Mountains Classification with a 1.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 7.0 with Paddy Power.
Back John Darwin Atapuma to win the Mountains Classification with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 34.0 with Paddy Power.
Bet on Mikel Nieve to to win the Mountains Classification with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 201.0 with Paddy Power.
Back all three here:
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