Tour de France 2017 Stage 11 takes place on Wednesday 12th July. The stage looks like another (boring) sprint stage. Can anyone beat Marcel Kittel?
Tour de France 2017 Stage 11 – Profile
The 11th stage of the Tour de France is about as easy as any Grand Tour stage in history. The riders race from Eymet to Pau on essentially flat roads. The stage is 203.5kms long and it is time in the saddle that is the most difficult part of the day.
There are only two real challenges in the days racing. The first will come at the Intermediate Sprint at 142.5kms in Aire-Sur-l’Adour. This is quickly followed by the sole climb, a category 4 at Cote d’Aire-Sur-l’Adour at the 145.5km mark. The final 12kms of the stage are a gentle descent to the finish in Pau.
Look for a breakaway, a catch and a bunch sprint. Otherwise known as a ‘Yawn-fest’. There is about a 0.5% chance the break succeeds.
[the_ad_group id=”3624″]
Tour de France 2017 Stage 11 – Favourites
I gambled on stage 10 and went against Marcel Kittel (Quick Step-Floors). Bit of a mistake as he won easily – looking like Cavendish in his pomp pulling away from his rivals with ease. In a sprint right now he is hard to back against. The thing is the bookmakers know this too and his odds are just terrible. Can I back him at 1.61 with the next rider at 9.0? I’m not sure.
Andre Greipel (Lotto-Soudal) had a fabulous position coming off the final corner in stage 10 but had nothing in his legs. Greipel is so expressive on a bike and you could see his look when his legs wouldn’t give him more speed. I cannot see this improving overnight and I will eliminate hom from my thoughts for stage 11 success. Odds of 9.0 look too short to me.
Alexander Kristoff (Katusha) grabbed another 5th place finish on stage 10. He too had a perfect position inside the final 500 metres but lacked the speed to grab a podium spot. He is another to avoid on Wednesday at 17.0.
Dylan Groenewegen (Lotto-NL Jumbo) finally got his positioning right on stage 10 and grabbed third place in the sprint to the line. His team were more visible in the closing kms and this enable Groenewegen to grab a decent result. With a number of the other sprinters looking shattered he might be a decent EW bet at 13.0 for stage 11.
Edvald Boasson-Hagen (Dimension Data) was poorly placed coming into the home straight on stage 10. He was playing catch-up from there and was never able to get on terms with the sprinters in front of him. Still he won a head-to-head bet for me. I can’t back him for the stage win at 23.0 but may look at another head-to-head.
John Degenkolb (Trek-Segafredo) had the best sprint of his tour on Tuesday. He followed Kittel and nabbed second place. Degenkolb was still some distance behind Kittel but it is a welcome return to form for Degenkolb. He is priced at 15.0 for stage 11 – another with EW value.
Rudiger Selig (Bora-Hansgrohe) is now his teams number one sprinter following Sagan’s dis-qualification. He nabbed the best result of his Tour career on stage 10 with a super 4th place. This comes on the back of a 7th place on stage 6 and 7th on stage 7 (the last two sprint stages). Selig is the one rider that is trending upwards with his results and might be worth a small EW bet at odds in the 51.0 range.
Tour de France 2017 Stage 11 – Outsiders
Michael Matthews (Sunweb) was nowhere near the top 10 in Tuesday’s sprint finish. I predicted this as his exertion on stage 9 in the mountains in the chase for Intermediate Sprint points effectively killed his chances on Tuesday. Like Greipel I’m not convinced this will improve overnight and will pass at 26.0.
Nacer Bouhanni (Cofidis) was 6th on Tuesday – another top 10 place. However, he was no real threat for the first three places. I think it might take a crash inside the last 3kms on Wednesday for him to sneak onto the podium. Like Matthews not for me at 23.0.
Sonny Colbrelli (Bahrain-Merida) looks a little off the pace to me. His early season form has deserted Colbrelli and he doesn’t really look like a stage winner now. Another to pass on at 67.0
Dan McLay (Team Fortuneo-Oscaro) finished 7th on stage 10 and looks to be getting himself in the mix now in the bunch sprints. His form is improving as the race progresses but I’m not convinced he has the speed to get into the top 3 or 4 riders. The bookies agree with me and price Mclay at 51.0.
Tour de France 2017 Stage 11 – Tips
WON – Back Marcel Kittel to win stage 11 with a 4.0/10 stake at 1.61 with Paddy Power.
Bet on Rudiger Selig to win stage 11 with a 0.75/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 51.0 with Paddy Power.
WON – PLACED 2ND – Back Dylan Groenewegen to win stage 11 with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 13.0 with Paddy Power.
Bet here:
Back Alexander Kristoff to beat Andre Greipel in stage 11 with a 3.0/10 stake at 2.00 with Bet365.
Bet here:
Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2017
