Tour de France 2017 Stage 4 takes place on Tuesday 4th July. This looks set to be another bunch-sprint finish with the biggest names in sprinting contesting the win.
Thank you Peter Sagan – that’s two stage wins in a row for me now 🙂
Tour de France 2017 Stage 4 – Profile
Stage 4 takes the riders into France for the first time in the 2017 race. The stage starts in Luxembourg and sees the riders take on a 207.5km course from Mondorf-Les-Bains to Vittel.
There is only moderate climbing on the stage – the biggest threat to the riders may be cross-winds.
The stage contains only one classified climb – Col des Trois Fontaines which is peaked at 170.5kms. This is only 1.9kms long but it does average 7.4%. The summit is 37kms from the finish line so the sprinters that struggle on the climb have time to get back to the front of the race. The final 30kms feature gentle undulation with the final 3kms being fairly easy. The final km sees 17 metres of rise so this is an uphill finish – just nowhere near as tough as stage 3.
Tour de France 2017 Stage 4 – Favourites
Marcel Kittel (Quick Step-Floors) impressively won stage 2 when it looked like he was out of position with 1 km to the finish line. His team were impressive, as always and he delivered when it mattered. The only worry for the stage is the little category 4 climb. He might struggle on this but I’m sure the team will support him and deliver him back into the peloton for the finale. Kittel is a massive favourite in the early markets at 1.66.
Arnaud Demare (FDJ) was a close second to Kittel on stage 2. Demare showed that he has carried his early season form forward to the the TDF. He should be bang in the mix for the podium places again and decent Green Jersey points on Tuesday’s stage. Demare is 2nd favourite at 6.0 for stage victory – that just about works for an EW bet.
Andre Greipel (Lotto Soudal) was 3rd on stage 2 and not that far from continuing his Grand Tour winning streak. Greipel had decent position through the sprint but was still fairly easily beaten by a charging Kittel on stage 2. If we get another messy run in then Greipel could easily win the stage. Odds of 9.0 do interest me.
Mark Cavendish (Dimension Data) was a better than expected 4th on Sunday’s opening road stage. He couldn’t quite match the top 3 but was in the mix for the win. That will please him and his many fans. I think the weather helped him on stage 2 – the bunch sprint was a little chaotic and he used his experience well to challenge. Cavendish won the Intermediate Sprint on stage 3 so there seems to be some life in his legs. Odds of 13.0 have EW potential.
Peter Sagan (Bora-Hansgrohe) will be hugely disappointed with a 10th place on stage 2. Sagan had a great place early on in the sprint but allowed Sonny Colbrelli to sneak past him and then block Sagan in. He had nowhere to go and this took away any chances of the stage win. I think that was a freak result – he is better than that and odds of 17.0 look very tasty for stage 4 especially on the back of his win in stage 3.
Dylan Groenewegen (Lotto-NL Jumbo) was another who was hampered in the messy sprint on Sunday. He managed to get up for 5th but was never in a real position to challenge for the stage win. Was some of that down to inexperience – remember in my Classification posts and stage 2 preview I said how important experience is at the TDF. He can be backed at 19.0 so the EW bet is available.
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Tour de France 2017 Stage 4 – Other sprinters
Michael Matthews (Sunweb) managed to get a top 10 on stage 2 with a 9th placing on the stage. As expected Matthews was in the mix for the minor places but not the stage win. Matthews is quick but better suited to lumpy finishes than flat power sprints. Stage 4 does have a gradual upward slope to the line. However, I fear the gradient is too shallow to affect the power sprinters. Matthews is a huge 101.0 for stage 4 and I think thats a decent reflection of his chances.
Nacer Bouhanni (Cofidis) snuck into 8th place on stage 2 and will be looking to go a little better on Tuesday. As I’ve said before he is too volatile a rider for a gambler to trust. He is 34.0 in the early markets.
Ben Swift (UAE Team Emirates) was the one rider finishing in the top 10 on stage 2 that I neglected to mention in my preview for that stage. Swift managed to come in a creditable 7th on that stage. Now that he is away from Team Sky he is finally on a team that will afford him some leadout support. I’m shocked he is as high as 201.0 for the stage win. He was a metre or so from a podium place on Sunday!
Sonny Colbrelli (Bahrain Merida) – 6th on stage 2 and one of my tips. Colbrelli’s timing looked a little off on stage 2 as he seemed to attack too soon. This gave his rivals a wheel to follow and he was jumped in the closing 25-50 metres. Again I think his odds are too high for stage 4 at 67.0.
Tour de France 2017 Stage 4 – Tips
I want to back Kittel but I’m not keen on such short odds in a sprint that has the potential to be chaotic.
Back Andre Greipel to win stage 4 with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 9.0 with Paddy Power.
PLACED 2ND – Back Peter Sagan to win stage 4 with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 17.0 with Paddy Power.
Bet on Ben Swift to win stage 4 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 201.0 with Paddy Power.
Back them here:
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Just wanted to say thanks for all your tips! Colbrelli looked great but as you said his timing was way off and pretty much gave Kittel the win. Sagan got caught way out of place and got caught having to look over his shoulder – don’t think that will happen again. With the big guys legs tired from the last climb I’m thinking 1st Sagan, 2nd Kittel, 3rd Colbrelli
Hi Matt,
Thank you for the kind words. I’m not sure from a purists point of view that I’m keen on the race route for this years race. From a betting perspective it is probably a little easier, with an expected 9 bunch sprints, to provide tips. I think Kittel will probably win today but there is too much risk at odds that short. Sagan at 16/1 is better value to place than Kittel is to win the stage. I hope Colbrelli and Demare do well once more – for Green Jersey points!
Martin