I have changed my mind and will cover each stage of the Tour Down Under 2017. I wasn’t sure of the availability of odds for the stages pre-race and must say I am surprised to see such extensive stage markets.
Stage 1 – Unley to Lyndoch (145kms)
The first stage of the Tour Down Under 2017 takes place on Tuesday 17th January. Remember, this is in Australia so the stage start time will be at 00.05 UK time on Tuesday morning.
Stage 1 is expected to come down to a sprint finish. The profile, as shown in the image, is a little lumpy with the big climb of the day at 40kms. This climb takes the riders over Humbug Scrub then gradually descends to the 55km point where the riders reach Willamstown. From here the peloton completes three and a half circuits of roughly 28-29kms. The circuit includes a climb back into Willamstown itself and then descends to Lyndoch. After three and a half laps the stage is expected to be contested in a bunch sprint finish.
The Contenders
Outright stage favourite is Australian Caleb Ewan (Orica-Scott). Ewan is a young quick rider with high expectations for the future. He is expected to be a consistent challenger for Grand Tour stage wins in his career. Ewan won the People’s Choice Classic Criterium that traditionally precedes this race on 15th January. His Orica team led him out perfectly with off-season signing Roger Kluge launching Ewan to the line. The bookmakers have Ewan in the 1.90 range so he can only be backed as a win only. He has form and probably has the strongest team in the race. I would expect Ewan to be on the podium in this stage.
Ewan easily beat Bora-Hansgrohe team-mates Sam Bennett and Peter Sagan to win the People’s Choice Classic. Unusually, Sagan was riding lead out for Bennett in the criterium but I would expect him (and Bennett) to go for the stage win on Tuesday. Sagan, has a pedigree that few can match. He is world number one and has wins on all terrain types in his career. I’m not sure he is anywhere close to full fitness but he is so competitive. Any chance he gets to challenge for a win he takes. Bora-Hansgrohe have a potential advantage in this stage in that they have two sprinters to challenge for the win. They might be able to ride tactically at the finish to gain an advantage.
I’m a little surprised that the odds for Bennett (5.00) are lower than for Sagan (8.00). It is not very often that Sagan can be backed that high in an almost certain sprint finish. He has to be backed and the EW works well at those odds.
The Rest of the Sprint Challengers
There are a number of other sprinters here but none of the other elite sprinters like Kittel or Cavendish. The group includes Edward Theuns (Trek-Segafredo), Niccolò Bonifazio (Bahrain-Merida), Danny Van Poppel (Team Sky), Nikias Arndt (Team Sunweb), Mark Renshaw (Team Dimension-Data) and Ben Swift (UAE Abu-Dhabi).
Of these Arndt is a rider on the rise who broke through with a Giro D’Italia stage win in 2016. Van Poppel takes over as Team Sky’s sprinter in the absence of Elia Viviani and Ben Swift. The latter moved to a new team in the offseason as Team Sky weren’t able to provide him with the support to try and wins races/stages. Bonifazio finished 4th in the People’s Choice Classic here but didn’t have a great 2016. Theuns is one for the future whilst Renshaw is in the golden years of his career. Of this group I think Swift will want to prove a point to Team Sky and he could be worth a small EW bet at 41.0.
Tour Down Under Stage 1 Tips
Ewan is likely to win but I cannot trust him completely yet in the role of favourite. I will go with a rider who produced last year and an outsider who has a track record of early season success. My stakes are smaller than normal because I’ve not seen any of this riders race yet this year. Their form is unknown so some caution is the best option.
Back Peter Sagan to win stage one with a 1.00/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 8.00 with Paddy Power.
Bet here:
Back Ben Swift to win Stage 1 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 41.00 with Bet365.
Bet here:
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