Stage 2 – Stirling to Paracombe (149kms)
Stage 2 of the Tour Down Under 2017 takes place on Wednesday 18th January. Remember, this is in Australia so the stage start time will be at in the early hours UK time on Wednesday morning.
Like stage one the second stage features a course with circuits. In this case the riders will complete 5 circuits from the start in Stirling. Each circuit is around 22kms with 200 metres (total elevation) of climbing from Myler (low point) to Heathfield (high point). Once the five laps are complete the riders will race 45 kms to the finish line in Paracombe. This final section features a big descent from the 120kms point. The riders will drop some 550 metres at the 135km point. The finale features a gradual climb in the last 10kms. The last 1.5kms see the riders climb around 160 metres. This is a finish for the likes of Peter Sagan and the punchuers rather than the pure sprinters.
The Contenders
There are probably 7 or 8 riders in contention for the stage win including the GC riders. Look for local riders or riders that like the heat. This is especially the case in light of Stage 1 being cut short on Tuesday due to extremely high temperatures.
Sergio Henao (Team Sky) is stage favourite at 4.50. He can be very explosive on but I think he would prefer something a little steeper than the finale here. Leave Henao on stage 2.
If Peter Sagan (Bora-Hansgrohe) were in top form then he would be a short favourite for stage 2. Sagan never featured in the sprint on Tuesday’s opening stage as his team-mate Sam Bennett was Caleb Ewan’s (Orica-Scott) closest challenger. Was it a case of Sagan targeting this stage or does he really not have his legs to win? He is priced a reasonable 6.50 so you could bet EW on him but I will hold off for now.
Michael Woods (Canondale Drapac) is a rider that is fairly new to me. He did finish 5th overall in the 2016 Tour Down Under but showed little else last season. I am really surprised to see him as 3rd favourite at 7.00.
Next in the market comes a rider that I like in stage 2 – Simon Gerrans (Orica Scott). Gerrans won this race last year which was accomplished with wins on stages 3 and 4. If he wants to defend his title this is the perfect stage to launch his challenge. He has won this type of race multiple times in his career, the finish suits him and 10.0 looks to have some value.
Gerran’s teammate Esteban Chaves (Orica-Scott) is also priced at 10.0. I feel that, like Henao, he would prefer a longer and steeper climb like that ahead in stage 5. Wait to back Chaves!
Richie Porte (BMC Racing) is favourite to win the race overall in 2017. For stage 2 he can be backed at odds of 11.0. As a number of his rivals will be looking to challenge for stage honours on Wednesday, Porte will have to be vigilant and stay close to the front. I’m not sure he can beat the likes of Gerrans into Paracombe though.
Outsiders
Diego Ulissi (UAE Abu Dhabi) is another overall challenger. He is super explosive on short steep climbs and Alpine stages. His price at 11.0 looks okay for a small EW bet provided you feel he has the form. I will hold off for now.
Rohan Dennis (BMC Racing) has won a stage on this climb in the past. I don’t think he can beat what is a stronger field in this years race. It looks like he is riding as a support rider for Richie Porte so I would discount his chances.
Gianluca Brambilla (QuickStep Floors) is the other rider that draws some interest. He won a magnificent stage in the 2016 Giro d’Italia and climbs well. Again, I think stage 5 is better terrain for Brambilla to feature.
Three riders that you could take a real flyer on include Nathan Haas (Dimension Data) at 34.0, Oscar Gatto (Astana) at 126.0 and Cameron Meyer (Dimension Data) at 151.0. If the big boys mark each other than each of these riders have the power to escape and hold on for the win on the Paracombe climb. Of the three I will place a very small bet on the home rider Meyer.
Tour Down Under 2017 – Stage 2 Tips
Back Simon Gerrans to win stage two with a 1.00/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 10.00 with Paddy Power.
Back Cameron Meyer to win Stage two with a 0.25/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 151.00 with Paddy Power.
Bet on each rider here:
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