Stage 3 – Glenelg to Victor Harbor (144kms)
Stage Three of the 2017 Tour Down Under takes place on Thursday 18th January. Remember, this is in Australia so the stage start time will be at 00:30 UK Time Thursday morning. Get your bets in early.
My overall race winner tip came good on stage 2 with Richie Porte winning fairly easily. Stage three looks more likely to be contested in a sprint finish so the GC riders will not be in contention.
The stage starts in Glenelg with a short sharp climb from the off. A break could be established on this climb within the first 5kms. The next 30kms see the riders gradually descend before the two big climbs of the day. The first comes at 35kms where the riders begin the 9km ascent of Sellicks Hill. The GC teams will need to be vigilant on this climb and protect their leaders.
A plateau of 6kms leads to a sharp descent to the 61kms point. From here the peloton will climb again for another 8kms. There is respite for the riders for the next 30kms which takes them to the final circuit. This is the Viktor Harbor circuit and it will be ridden 5 times before the riders reach the line. There is a small climb in the circuit and the sentiment is that at the end of a days fast racing the sprinters may not be able to keep near the front.
The Contenders
This is a tough stage to call and only 3 riders can be backed under 10.0. They are followed by another group on 10 riders in the 12.0-26.0 range.
The bookmakers favour Peter Sagan (Bora Hansgrohe) for this stage and have priced him at 6.0. If this were a Tour de France stage I would be betting big on Sagan here. It isn’t and Sagan looks to be riding here in support of the teams other sprinter Sam Bennett. Bennett finished 3rd on stage 1 but looks more of an outsider here and is priced at 10.0. I’m not sure he gets over the climbs well enough to contend.
Ben Swift (UAE Abu-Dhabi) and Simon Gerrans (Orica-Scott) follow Sagan at 11.00 & 15.00 respectively. Each rider has a tendency to do well in sprints from smaller groups. This is especially true on stages that are lumpy and feature lots of climbs in the finale. Of the two Gerrans looks to have better legs thus far – but I’m not sure I can back him two days in a row.
Caleb Ewen (Orica-Scott) impressively won stage 1 of this race. If he can get around the circuit with the front group then he has to be a big chance to win. When the odds were first released he was priced at 17.0 but has come in to 5.50 already. I liked 17.0 much better than 5.50. At 5.50 the only real value is in the win only market.
Outsiders
Edward Theuns (Trek-Segafredo) can be backed at 17.0. Theuns put in a respectable finish on stage 1 finishing 8th in the bunch sprint. This followed a 5th place in Saturday’s People Choice Award criterium. I’m not convinced his track record suggests he can win this stage.
Danny Van Poppel (Team Sky) finished 2nd to Ewan on stage 1 and he was closing at the line. He will be supported by a couple of strong men in the Sky team including Ian Stannard. Like Ewan, the big question is can he be in contention coming off the climb on the final circuit? If so 9.0 looks like a good EW pick.
Niccolò Bonifazio (Bahrain-Merida) is another rider the bookmakers like the looks of and you can bet on him at 17.0. He managed 5th place on stage 1 but that was a far more straightforward finish than stage 3. I’d look elsewhere.
One other rider I would consider is Nathan Haas (Dimension Data). Haas finished at the front of the main group in stage 2, coming in 19 seconds after Richie Porte in 5th place on the day. He is an all rounder and the type of rider that could launch a late attack on the Viktor Harbor circuit. If he could get a small gap he would be tough to close down on the tight corners. A price of 67.0 looks tempting and a win would make it 3 for 3 for Australia!
Tour Down Under Stage 3 Tips
WON – Back Caleb Ewan to win stage three with a 1.50/10 stake at 5.50 with Paddy Power.
Back Nathan Haas to win Stage three with a 0.50/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 67.00 with Paddy Power.
Bet on each rider here:
Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2017
