The Tour of Flanders or ‘Ronde Vlaanderen’ takes place on Sunday 2nd April, 2017 in Belgium. This years race is the 101st running of the great event. Tour of Flanders and is the second ‘Monument’ of the season after ‘Milan-San Remo’.
Tour of Flanders – The Course/Profile
The Tour of Flanders is a race that every rider in the peloton wants to win. The route itself is 260km through East and West Flanders.
The course is incredibly tough – starting in Bruges and finishing in Oudenaarde. The course features 17 sections of cobbles, dirt roads, 18 short sharp climbs (many of them cobbled) and when it rains is littered with crashes and drama.
Some of the cobbled sections have names that anyone interested in pro cycling can recall easily – particularly the two famous cobbled climbs – Oude Kwaremont and Koppenberg.
The 9th classified climb of the day – the Potteberg at the 180km point can be the point where the racing really heats up. The climb is quickly followed by the Kanarieberg and then an unclassified climb. A descent leads to the heart of the climbing starting with the Oude Kwaremont at 205kms. The strongest riders will be looking to break clear from this point forwards. The ‘super’ teams in particular will up the pace and send riders off the front in the hope of getting a group to stick. The next 40kms are relentless with 7 more climbing sections. Usually, a lone rider or a small group emerges in the front of the race from this section.
Tour of Flanders – Recent Winners
The winners of the last five editions of Tour of Flanders were:
- 2011 – Nick Nuyens (BEL) – Saxo Bank SunGard
- 2012 – Tom Boonen (BEL) – Omega Phrama-Quick Step
- 2013 – Fabian Cancellera (SUI) – RadioShack Leopard
- 2014 – Fabian Cancellera (SUI) – Trek Factory Racing
- 2015 – Alexander Kristoff (NOR) – Team Katusha
- 2016 – Peter Sagan (SVK) – Tinkoff
Belgian riders have won the race on 68 occasions. Next come Italian riders with 10 wins and the Dutch riders with 9.
Tour of Flanders – The Favourites
Peter Sagan (Bora Hansgrohe) won here in 2016 – his maiden Monument success. Sagan is race favourite once more. Based on his results in 2017 – lots of top three places – this is probably valid. His win in 2016 was similar to the way Fabian Cancellera and Tom Boonen has won in the past. He simply rode away from everyone else using his immense power. The huge concern in his battle with the BMC Racing and Quick-Step Floors riders is that the Bora team simply cannot match-up to either. Sagan is often left isolated in the front group and he is unable to cover every attack – although he often tries too. This saps Sagan of the energy he needs to contest races closer to the line and is one of the reasons he has more 2nd and 3rd place finishes than he arguably should in 2017. Odds of 2.88 are purely win only and don’t offer enough value for me.
Greg Van Avermaet (BMC Racing) is on brilliant riding form. He has three big wins in 2017 so far including last weekend with E3 Prijs Vlaanderen on the Friday and Gent-Wevelgem on Sunday. GVA is brilliant tactically and has shown an ability to win from a small group in the last two years. That includes beating more fancied riders in small sprints i.e. Peter Sagan on two occasions. GVA’s odds have come right in to 4.5. This just about works as a small EW bet. Can GVA back-up last weeks immense performances with a third win on the bounce? I’m not sure.
Philippe Gilbert (Quick-Step Floors) missed Gent-Wevelgem last weekend to focus on the Tour of Flanders. I actually really like this move. Gilbert was in the front group at E3 Prijls Vlaanderen and Dwars Door Vlaanderen on Wednesday and Friday of last week. He finished runner-up in each and displayed the power of old in both races. This week Gilbert is dominating a strong field in Three Days of Panne. I’ve yet to back him this season but odds of 13.0 look huge!
Tom Boonen (Quick-Step Floors) has three wins here tying him for the all-time record. A win here in his final season would be a real ‘fairy-tale’ moment. I hadn’t seen enough from Boonen this year before Gent-Wevelgem to suggest he could win here. Now I’m a bit of a believer following his 6th place finish last Sunday. Odds in the mid-20s look good as an EW bet.
Quick-Step Floors will also roll out Niki Terpstra, Zdenek Stybar, Matteo Trentin on Sunday. They seriously have a five-pronged attack for Flanders. The first two can be backed around 26.0 and Trentin as high as 81.0. Each rider is powerful and able to escape from the peloton. Of the three Terpstra had the best finishes during Flemish Cycling Week. At times Stybar and Trentin looked awesome but were also playing the team game in each race. I hope they have some more freedom this Sunday. I will pick one in my tips – lets hope I pick the right rider!
Michal Kwiatkowski (Team Sky) won Milan-San Remo on the back of success at Strade-Bianche. I am however surprised to see him as 4th favourite at around 15.0. The two races Kwiatkowski won in Italy were both more suited ot the Punchuer style that Kwiatkowski has. Flanders is more a war of attrition and is almost always won by the strong men riders. I like Kwiatkowki for some of the races in mid-April but not here. Team-mate Gerraint Thomas looks to be a better choice for Flanders.
Thomas has been riding extremely well in 2017 (team tactic cock-up aside in the Volta a Catalunya last week). The one issue for me is Thomas knows how to crash. He has a pretty bad record in this type of race with crashes and technical issues. Odds around the 26.0 mark are a little to low for my tastes even as an EW bet.
Tour of Flanders – The Rest
This group includes riders that have top 10 results in the Belgian One Day races in 2017 and a number of riders who have shown this ability in previous season.
Alexander Kristoff (Katusha) has odds of 15.0 for Flanders. He won this race in 2015 but hasn’t really performed as well as expected in 2017. His results in the Classic’s so far have been below those a rider of his ability should be attaining. He is starting to look a little better in the first two days of the Three Days of Panne but one thing worries me. When the key attack has gone in many of the Belgian one day races – usually on the hilly sections, Kristoff has been dropped with regularity and missed getting into the front group. I will pass in spite of his won on stage 2 of Three Days of Panne on Wednesday.
John Degenkolb (Trek Segafredo) can be backed as high as 21.0 for the win on Sunday. He made it to the front group with Sagan and GVA in Gent-Wevelgem but was unable to sustain the effort. A larger group formed and Degenkolb missed the key break ultimately finishing in 5th. That is his best result in Europe so far in 2017 bettering his 7th in Milan-San Remo. If he can keep with the front group – and that’s a big if – I feel Degenkolb will be a rider to fear. He is probably the fastest of the big men in a sprint.
Oliver Naesen (AG2R) has interesting odds at 34.0. Naesen has 4 top ten finishes in the One Day Classics so far with a best of 3rd in E3 Prije Vlaanderen last week. In that race he made it to the front group of 3 but lost out in the sprint finish. I feel he is a decent outsider here as he is consistently towards the front in these types of races.
Tiesj Benoot (Lotto Soudal) can also be backed at 34.0. He too has been consistent this season with 3 top ten finishes in the One Day Classics including 7th last week in Dwars Door Vlaanderen. Benoot is a rider that many have high expectations for in the future. He is big and powerful and grew up riding on these Belgian roads. He has EW value.
Sep Vanmarcke (Canondale Drapac) has odds in the 29.0 range. These are higher than you would expect but Vanmarcke is carrying a rib injury and doesn’t have the recent results to merit lower odds. I don’t see a reversal of fortunes on Sunday.
Jens Keukeleire (Orica-Scott) can be backed as high as 67.0 and this is a big surprise to me. He was immense last Sunday in Dwar Doors Vlaaanderen finishing 2nd to GVA. Keukeleire is riding a support role this week at Three Days of Panne but he is showing well there too. I like him as an EW selection.
Luke Rowe (Team Sky) finished in 5th place here in 2016. He had a 3rd at Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne and a 6th at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad in February but hasn’t really featured since. Odds of 41.0 are a little light for me. I think he could go well but don’t feel he could win in any circumstances other than a clean lone breakaway and I don’t think he has the power for that.
Jasper Stuyven (Trek Segafredo) is another outsider that some will like. He can be backed at 51.0 so the EW is in play but I feel he is riding here for Degenkolb. Like Rowe his best results in 2017 came in February with 2nd at Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne and 8th at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad. Not for me either.
Andre Greipel (Lotto Soudal) has quite large odds at 126.0. He has a reputation as a strong man who sprints so looks ideal for this race. His career results however don’t reflect this as his wins and podium places have tended to come in multi-stage races. This surprises me because he is powerful and can win a Grand Tour bunch sprint so winning a sprint from a smaller group in a Classic race should be possible. A small EW bet may provide a big return.
Tour of Flanders 2017 – Odds
I’m avoiding the big two and going with 5 other riders EW as I search for value. I have chosen a bookmaker that pays 4 places as opposed to 3. You could back Greipel and Keukeleire with higher odds elsewhere but only paying 3 places.
WON – Bet on Philippe Gilbert to win Tour of Flanders with a 1.0/10.0 stake EW (1/4 odds top 4) at 13.0 with Coral.
Back Zdenek Stybar to win Tour of Flanders with a 0.5/10.0 stake EW (1/4 odds top 4) at 26.0 with Coral.
Bet on Oliver Naesen to win Tour of Flanders with a 0.5/10.0 stake EW (1/4 odds top 4) at 34.0 with Coral.
Back Jens Keukeleire to win Tour of Flanders with a 0.5/10.0 stake EW (1/4 odds top 4) at 67.0 with Coral.
Bet on Andre Greipel to win Tour of Flanders with a 0.5/10.0 stake EW (1/4 odds top 4) at 101.0 with Coral.
Back all 5 here:
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