The 96th edition of Volta a Catalunya takes place between 21st and 27th March 2016, comprising 7 stages.
This is a tough race. There is no prologue, no time-trial and no team time-trial. The first six stages range from 172-196kms including two high mountain stages on days 3 and 4. The race is a serious test for the main protagonists for the three Grand Tours later this year. The stages will be fast and very aggressive.
Recent History
The winners of the last five editions of Volta a Catalunya were:
2011 – Michele Scarponi (ITA) – Lampre-ISD (Contador won but was later disqualified for doping offences)
2012 – Michael Albasini (SUI) – GreenEDGE
2013 – Dan Martin (IRE) – Garmin-Sharp
2014 – Joaquim Rodriguez (ESP) – Team Katusha
2015 – Richie Porte (AUS) – Team Sky
The course
None of the last five winners of this race have won a Grand Tour. That is somewhat surprising given the course and riders who compete each year.
The route this year really favours the best riders in the world. It is full of climbing.
Day One features five climbs – 2 x category 3, 2 x category 2 and 1 x category 1. The category 1 climb is 50kms from the finish so we could very well see a sprint finish on the stage.
Stage 2 is slightly more straightforward with only two climbs and will likely end in a full bunch sprint finish.
Days 3 and 4 in particular are very difficult and the riders will need to be close to peak fitness to challenge for victory.
Stage 3 – Girona to La Molina includes 4 1st category climbs including the mountain top finish into La Molina itself.
As if this wasn’t tough enough, stage 4 (Baga to Port Aine) includes two ‘extra’ (off the scale hard) category climbs sandwiching a 1st category climb.
It is these two stages that will be key in determining the race winner.
Stages 5 and 6 are flatter and will enable the team of the leader to exert some control over the days racing.
Stage 7, the finale into Barcelona features a relatively flat 90kms run into Barcelona and then a circuit style with 9 laps, each taking in the category 3 Montjuic climb. Unless, the race is really tight like Paris-Nice, this stage shouldn’t see too many changes in the order of the top ten.
Riders who will feature
Simply put the best riders in the world are all here with the exception of Vincenzo Nibali (Team Astana). In fact the line-up might be stronger than any we will see in the three Grand Tours.
THE BIG FOUR
Chris Froome (Team Sky), Alberto Contador (Tinkoff), Nairo Quintana (Movistar) and Fabio Aru (Astana) fill the top four places in the bookings odds. They are all Grand Tour winners and barring Aru, they have all won multiple Grand Tours. These are the elite riders on the Pro Tour.
They all climb exceptionally well and they will need those skills on this terrain.
Froome will be backed by an exceptionally strong Sky Team. The team features riders who are on great form – Gerraint Thomas has just won Paris-Nice and Wout Poels has won a stage race (Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana). All of the team climb in the high mountains at the high tempo that the team demands and will be massive in support of Froome’s attempts to win here. In our eyes he is the favourite to win this race. This will be a marker for bigger battles to come later in the season.
Quintana, arguably Froome’s closest rival, especially for this years Tour de France, has had a quiet start to the season. He is undoubtedly the team leader here as there is no Valverde. Movistar are always a strong team in the mountains and will support Quintana well. His lack of racing might mean he will lose a little time to Froome at the finish in either Stage 3 or Stage 4.
Contador, our tip for outright victory in Paris-Nice, is on good form, but we would argue he is about 90-95% of the rider he was in his pomp. We still thought he would beat the field in Paris-Nice, but the riders in Volta a Catalunya are of a slightly higher level. In fact I am surprised that Contador is second favourite here.
Aru, is the youngest of the four and has won on this type of terrain in the past – winning the 2015 Vuelta Espana. With Nibali sitting this out Aru has the complete support from a powerful Astana team. We think he will beat Contador here.
The Rest
Richie Porte (BMC) is on fine form, surprising us in Paris-Nice where he finished in the top 3 with a massive effort on the final stage. He will have a strong number two in Tejay van Garderen, who seemed well placed to win Tirreno-Adriatico last week until being caught behind a crash on the penultimate stage. Porte is defending champion and we think he will challenge for the top 4 but lose time on Stage 3 or Stage 4.
The only other rider we like is someone we have already tipped this season – Ilnur Zakarin (Team Katusha). He finished 4th last week in Paris-Nice only 8 seconds off the podium – much to our consternation as we backed him at 41.0. Zakarin won the only mountain stage in Paris-Nice in a sprint with Thomas. The terrain here with two tougher mountain stages is more suited to him. He has a real shot at going close to the podium here especially as he will not be marked as closely as the ‘Big Four’ or Porte.
I cannot look past these riders. The field is that strong that the winner will come from this select group. It would not surprise me if one of the ‘big four’ or Porte do not finish this race. This will open up the battle for the podium and hence help explain my tips below.
Tips
This is the boring choice but we have to go with the best rider on the strongest team, Chris Froome. Back him for a 3/10 stake at 3.25 with Paddypower.
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Fabio Aru is favourably priced. I think he will beat Contador here and that puts him in with a very strong each way chance. Back him with a 1.5/10 stake E/W (1/4 of the odds for top 3) at 10.0 with Paddypower.
Place your bet here:
My outsider for the podium is Ilnur Zakarin – back him with a 1.0/10 stake E/W (1/4 of the odds for top 3) at 26.0 with Paddypower.
Place your bet here:
