Vuelta a Espana Stage 2 is the first proper road stage of the 2016 race. If ever a stage was made for one rider it is this one. Sadly, that rider Peter Sagan, has chosen not ride this years Vuelta!
I got my Vuelta stage betting campaign off to a winning start yesterday thanks to Orica-BikeExchange finishing in the top 3. Sunday’s stage will be tough to call.
The Profile
Stage 2 takes the riders on a 160kms route from Ourensa to Baiona. Unlike other Grand Tour opening road stages this one features a long category 3 climb.
The stage opens with a relatively straight-forward section of 60kms. The terrain is flat and there are few rises or drops. A breakaway will definitely go from the front of the peloton in the approaches to the climb. It will feature rider from some of the Spanish teams e.g. Caja Rural-Seguros, as they seek TV time for their sponsors.
Then the category 3 ‘Alto de Fontefria‘ starts and the riders climb for the next 20kms. Officially the climb is only 8.2kms at an average gradient of 3.2% but there is an 11km run-in.
A long descent will enable the riders who are dropped on the Alto de Fontefria to rejoin the peloton. The closing 60kms feature two smaller climbs. The entire peloton shouldn’t have any trouble getting over this climbs and they should approach the final kms as one big group.
A sprint finish is the most likely ending for stage 2. Predicting which rider will win is the tough part as none of the elite sprinters are present in this years Vuelta!
Stage 2 – The Challengers
The Favourites!
Stage 2 favourite is Nikias Arndt (Giant-Alpecin) at 4.50. Ardnt won the final stage of the 2016 Giro d’Italia – his lone win of the season. This came when the best sprinters in the race had already retired. Luckily, the level of competition here is fairly weak. The race is full of climbers but light on elite sprinters. Of the sprinters Arndt’s victory in the Giro is probably the biggest result this season. I can see why he is favoured by the bookmakers but I’m not sure I can back him.
Niccolò Bonifazio (Trek-Segefredo) is second favourite behind Arndt. He too has one win this season – on the 3rd stage of the Tour de Pologne (Poland). The bookmakers have him priced at 5.00 but again I have little confidence in predicting a win for the Italian on stage 2.
Gianni Meersman (Etixx-Quick-Step) follows just behind at 7.50 in the early markets. Meersman has no wins this season but was 2nd overall in the Tour de Wallonie. Again, the lack of results doesn’t really give me any wishes to back the rider.
The 4th favourite for stage 2 is Fabio Felline (Trek-Segefredo) at odds of 12.0. He has no wins this season either. A pattern is emerging! He also rides on the same team as Bonifazio. We may not know until the finale in Baiona which of the two will be the lead-out rider and which the sprinter. This makes it impossible to back either!
Kristian Sbaragli (Dimension Data) is also available at 12.0. Guess what? Go on, have a go! No wins in the 2016 season. He does however have a stage win in the Vuelta in 2015. He is the first of the riders that I would consider placing a small EW bet on. He had two top 10 results on the opening two stages of the 2016 Giro. That was against the top level of sprinters including Kittel, Greipel, Nizzollo and a number of others – all of whom would be odds on for this stage.
A number of other riders feature in the 12.0-25.0 range – but none of these riders have the 2016 results to suggest they can win stage 1. Jempy Drucker (BMC Racing) a time-trial specialist is equal 4th on the betting markets!
Outsiders
The two riders with the most to gain on Stage 2 are Jose Joaquin Rojas Gil (Movistar) and Simon Gerrans (Orica Bike-Exchange). Rojas is in 9th place overall following the TTT on the same time as race leader Peter Kennaugh (Sky). Gerrans sits in 16th place – some 6 seconds from the lead. With there being bonus seconds for the top three (10-6-4) there is an incentive for both to go for the win.
Rojas has alone win this year in the Spanish Road Race Championship which he won in a sprint. His best is behind him but the potential to wear the Red Jersey in his home tour must be enticing. You can back him at 26.0 so the EW if firmly in play.
Gerrans hasn’t approached his form of 2014 during this season. His best results coming right at the start of the campaign in races in Australia. Gerrans has one extra incentive to go for the stage win. He has already worn the leaders jersey in the Tour de France and Giro d’Italia during his career. Grabbing the lead on Sunday would complete all three Grand Tours! Like Rojas, Gerrans can be backed at 26.0-34.0 and I think this has value.
Alejandro Valverde (Movistar) will begin the defence of the Sprinters Green Jersey here in Bainoa. He too, like team-mate Rojas knows a top three placing would see him move into the overall race lead. Valverde is going for the overall win in the race so may not want to take the lead this early. Still with the lack of top end sprinters you could do worse than a small EW bet at 34.0.
The other rider I think has an EW chance is Daniele Bonnati (Tinkoff). He actually has a couple of wins in 2016! He is older now – at 35 but his experience may come to the fore in the sprint on Sunday. He too can be backed at 26.0.
Vuelta a Espana Stage 2 – Tips
I really do not have a lot of faith in any of the riders for stage 2. Those favoured have no significant results in 2016 and there are no young sprinters that could surprise. I have more confidence in the mountain stages that will come later so will suggest a couple fo smaller bets only.
Back Simon Gerrans to win Stage 2 with a 1.0/10 Stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 34.0 with Paddy Power.
Back Alejandro Valverde to win Stage 2 with a 1.0/10 Stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 34.0 with Paddy Power.
Bet on both here:
Back Kristian Sbaragli to win Stage 2 with a 1.0/10 Stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 13.0 with Bet365.
Bet here:
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