Vuelta a Espana Stage 3 sees a complete change in terrain for the riders. The hills/mountains begin in a heavily back loaded stage. This will be a stage where the finale is exciting and time gaps appear.
Vuelta a Espana Stage 3 – The Profile
Stage 3 of the Vuelta sees the riders race 176.4kms from Marin to Dumbría – Mirador de Ézaro. The next 3 days racing feature a number of similar nasty climbs.
The first 110kms of the stage are slightly lumpy. There are a few smaller hills but nothing too taxing. This long run-in to the proper climbs will be where the day’s breakaway forms and builds its lead.
The final 50kms will shake up the peloton as the pace and gradients increase.
The first climb the riders face at the 110km mark is the category 3 – Alto Lestaio. This is 8.3 kilometre-long climb at an average gradient of 5.3%. The GC teams will lead the peloton on the Alto Lestaio so they can control any attacks by their rivals. A small plateau and another small rise take the riders to the high point of the day at 126kms. Then the riders face a fast steep descent back to the valley.
The category 2 – Alto Das Paxareiras is the next climb the peloton face. This is longer at 9.3 kms and slightly steeper at 5.4%. The GC teams will be in complete control on this climb as the stage finale is not far from the bottom of the descent.
The last 1.8kms of the stage are brutal. The finish line is at the top of the final climb of the day – the category 3 – Meta, Dumbría – Mirador de Ézaro. This one is short but hellishly steep at an average of 13.8%. This is the perfect slope for the punchers to attack for a stage win and bonus seconds.
NOTE – in the 2015 Vuelta an incredible 8 stages featured breakaway wins. The tiny time gaps at the top of the GC may be the biggest barrier to a break succeeding on Monday. Anyone of about 25 riders could take the race lead purely by gaining bonus seconds on the line. Their teams will be aware of this and thus control the race as they try to take the Red Jersey.
The Destroyer of Dumbría – Mirador de Ézaro
The obvious choice for stage success is Alejandro Valverde (Movistar). He has made a career of winning on this type of terrain both in Grand Tour stages and One Day Classic’s. He is an excellent rider on the steepest climbs and it would be no surprise to see him win on Monday. Valverde is priced at 3.50-4.00 so we would be backing him as a Win Only on Monday.
Gianluca Brambilla (Etixx-Quickstep) is another rider who does well on these steep climbs. He featured prominently on the recent Classica San Sebastien, a race featuring this type of climb. Brambilla aslo won a Giro d’Italia stage this year by escaping on the steepest climb of the day. He is one of my KOTM bets for this race and I would be delighted to see him challenge for the stage win. Brambilla has excellent odds for those interested in the EW market – 26.0.
Simon Yates and Esteban Chaves (Orica BikeExchange) are both riders that should come to the fore on Stage 3. Yates has a good record in races with climbs like this – 7th recently at the Classica San Sebastien and 7th in Paris-Nice. He might be given some freedom to go for the stage win on Monday. Or, he might have to help keep team leader Chaves towards the front. Chaves tends to do better on the longer mountain climbs. Orica see him as a GC contender here so they need to keep him to the fore so he doesn’t drop time. I am a little surprised that Chaves is joint favourite with Valverde at 3.75-4.00. I don’t think he will beat Valverde and a price in the 6.00-8.00 was what I expected. Yates on the other hand can be backed at 11.0-13.0 – perfect for the EW bet.
Miguel Angel Lopez (Astana) is an emerging rider that many feel is destined to be a Grand Tour winner. He impressively won the Tour du Suisse (Switzerland) this season against a decent field. Climbing is his specialty. Astana lost about a minite on their GC rivals in the TTT on Saturday, due mainly to a technical with Lopez’s chain. Stage 3 would be a perfect opportunity for him to gain some of that time back. A price of 17.0 will definitely attract some attention but I prefer Lopez more to beat Contador Head-to-Head at 2.75. To me he is the younger more explosive rider.
Chris Froome (Sky) doesn’t particularly like these shorter steep climbs. If you look at his record on this type of stage in Grand Tours he always appears in the top 6-10 riders. I’m not sure he has the sprint speed to beat a Valverde or Brambilla on stage 3 but he will be in the mix. There is some value in his early price of 13.0-15.0. A better Sky bet might be new race leader Michal Kwiatkowski. Kwiatkowski was signed to win the Monuments races in the Ardennes. They have the same short, sharp, steep climbs at the one into Mondays finish line. He will want to retain his race lead and a small EW shot at 23.0-33.0 could pay dividends.
The Rest
Alberto Contador (Tinkoff) lost 50+ seconds on the TTT and will be smarting from this as he entered the race as favourite. Like Lopez he might try to attack on the final climb to claw some time back. I don’t think he has the power/explosiveness of old and a top 10 would be a good result. There is no way I am backing him at 10.0.
Daniel Moreno (Katusha) has won these sort of stages in the past. I think that is why he is as short as 7.0-8.0. In his pomp he would challenge but he hasn’t approached those levels this season.
Philippe Gilbert (BMC Racing) of 2011-2014 vintage would have been the favourite to win stage 3. During those years he was almost impossible to beat on climbs like Mondays finale. However, he has lost that pure speed and is amongst the group of riders who could challenge for the win. Gilbert has some wins this year but they are not at the level of Grand Tour stages or Monuments.
Vuelta a Espana Stage 3 – Tips
Stage Win
Back Alejandro Valverde to win Stage 3 with a 2.0/10 stake at 3.75 with Bet365.
Bet here:
Back Michal Kwiatkowski to win Stage 3 with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 33.0 with Paddy Power.
Bet here:
Head-to-Head
Back Miguel Angel Lopez to beat Alberto Contador with a 2.5/10 stake at 2.75 with Bet365.
Bet here:
NOTE – Paddy Power were late in publishing their full odds for the stage. The Head-to-Head below was added 20 minutes after this post went live on Sunday evening.
Back Gianluca Brambilla to beat Samuel Sanchez with a 3.0/10 stake at 2.62 with Paddy Power.
Bet here:
