The racing should be much more straightforward in Vuelta a Espana Stage 5. There is only one categorised climb and the profile suggests the second bunch sprint of the race.
I am happy that I nailed yesterday’s stage and had a nice 80/1 EW place with new race leader Darwin Atapuma!
Vuelta a Espana Stage 5 – The Profile
The 5th stage on 24th August, takes the riders 171kms from Viveiro to Lugo. The profile suggests a classic bunch sprint type of day.
The first 70kms of stage 5 is arguably the flattest section of road thus far in the race. This is perfect for the peloton to allow a break to go and build up a decent lead. A short uncategorised climb at the 70kms mark is followed by the main climb of the day.
The Pto. de Marco de Álvare is an 11.8km climb at an average gradient of 3.6%. The climb starts at the 107km mark and the top takes the riders on a plateau. This plateau section continues to the finish line in Lugo.
It would be a big surprise if the peloton do not arrive at Lugo as one big group. The breakaway should be reeled on the finale plateau section and the sprinters can go to work.
The final 5 kms of the stage see an elevation rise of around 100 metres. Most of this is in the first 3 of those 5kms but there is a small rise in the last 500 metres. The sprinters will need to time their efforts well.
The GC teams should have a quieter stage on Wednesday. They need it with the big hilltop finishes approaching in the coming days.
Who will leap forward in Lugo?
My rider preview focuses purely on the sprinters for stage 5. There are so few stages that they can win that I feel the their teams will clamp down on any break.
I still have little confidence in the sprinters this years race and the Head-to-Head market on these stages scare me! In Sunday’s bunch sprint Michal Kwiatkowski (Sky), a rider with all around ability as opposed to pure sprint speed, finished 4th. It was a close 4th too. I will start with the riders who beat him on stage 2.
Gianni Meersman (Etixx-Quickstep) winner of the bunch sprint on Stage 2 is favourite for Stage 4. Meersman showed he had enough speed to beat the other sprinters in the field. He will be hoping for a second stage win in Lugo. The bookmakers make him a fairly strong favourite for his second sprint win in the 3.50-4.00 range. Magnus Bäckstedt, commentating on Eurosport was asked to predict his stage 2 winner when live on air. He was very confident it would be Meersman. That sort of endorsement, from a former Pro Tour rider means a lot! Back Meersman Win Only.
Second and third on Stage 2 were Michael Schwarzmann (Bora Argon) and Magnus Cort Nielsen (Orica-Bike Exchange). They too feature well in the betting markets at odds around 8.00-9.00. There was little in the sprint at the line on Sunday and each rider will like their chances of a maiden Grand Tour stage win.
Nikias Arndt (Giant-Alpecin) started as pre-stage favourite on Sunday but didn’t even make the top 15. Arndt has been given the benefit of the doubt by the bookies and starts as second favourite at 8.00. I just cannot back him at these odds – there is no form guide to base this on.
Jonas Van Genechten (IAM Cycling) was 5th on stage 2. His team is disbanding at the end of the season.. The riders are looking for a strong performance here to secure rides with other teams for 2017. This added incentive – a Vuelta stage win almost guarantees a job elsewhere – a small EW on Van Genechten in the 15.0-18.0 range could hold value.
My pick for stage 2 was Kristian Sbaragli (Dimenson Data). He was positioned well going into the final km but was bumped with a Katusha rider (who fell) and lost the back wheel of his sprint train. He still managed to finish 6th on the stage and at odds of 13.0-15.0 a small EW bet might bring dividends.
Niccolò Bonifazio (Trek–Segafredo) finished 7th on stage 2 and will be in the running again on Wednesday. The bookmakers feel he can improve as they have him as equal 3rd favourite in the 8.00-9.00 range. I’m not so sure he will improve that much to win the stage.
If you favour the breakaway succeeding then look at some of the riders I named in my stage 4 preview.
Vuelta a Espana Stage 5 – Tips
WON – Back Gianni Meersman to win stage 5 with a 2.0/10 stake at 3.50 with Paddy Power.
Bet on Magnus Cort Nielsen to win stage 5 with a 1.0/10 EW stake (1/4 odds top 3) at 8.00 with Paddy Power.
Bet here:
