Vuelta a Espana Stage 7 takes place on Thursday and sees the riders leave Galicia for Zamora.
I really thought the break stood a good chance of success on stage 6 but Orica Bike-Exchange had other ideas. Well done Simon Yates with your maiden Grand Tour stage win.
Vuelta a Espana Stage 7 – The Profile
Stage 7 is a little shorter than the recent stages at 158.5kms. The stage takes the riders from Maceda to Puebla de Sanabria. The profile shows that the riders have another lumpy road in front of them.
Stage 7 has 3 categorised climbs – all category 3s that are fairly evenly spaced through the 158kms.
Pto de Allariz is the first of these 3 climbs starting at 18.5kms. The Pto de Allariz is 6.8kms in length at 4.4%. Not too steep but the perfect place for the break to get established.
The road flattens at the top of this climb. It is followed at 50kms by an unclassified climb and a steep descent. This leads the riders to the base of the longest climb of the day – the Alto de Fumaces at 11.2kms (4.3% avaerage). From the base of this climb the altitude rises in steps for the next 70kms.
The final climbs – the Alto de Padornelo is 7kms long at only 3.2%. The top of the Alto de Padornelo is reached at 140kms from where the riders race fast downhill to the finish in Puebla de Sanabria.
On paper stage 7 has the potential for another breakaway success. It will depend on two things – the riders in the break and whether the sprint teams feel there is a chance of a win. The gradients on the climbs are not that bad so the sprint option seems favourite.
Partying in Puebla de Sanabria
There are joint favourites for Stage 7 – Gianni Meersman (Etixx-Quickstep) and Fabio Felline (Trek) at 8.00. These riders finished 1st and 2nd on Stage 5 and would seem to be the most likely contenders in a bunch sprint on Friday. The fact their odds are at 8.00 indicates some uncertainty by the bookmakers as to whether a break has a chance. Meersman has won two stages so far so he has to be worth a bet at this price. Go with the hot hand!
A bunch of riders follow these two men in the betting markets. They are riders who would be in contention from a smaller group or through escaping on the final climb. They include Philippe Gilbert (12.0), Tosh Van Der Sande (19.0), Jose Goncalves (19.0), Simon Gerrans (19.0), Luis Leon Sanchez (23.0), Alejandro Valverde (26.0) and Thomas de Gendt (26.0).
Of this group you would have to think de Gendt could only win from a breakaway. Gilbert, Gerrans and Sanchez would need to escape on the Alto de Padornelo and win from a small group of 3-6 riders. Van Der Sande, Goncalves and Valverde would fancy their chances from a bigger group – up to 30 riders.
Simon Clarke (Canondale) is another that could use the Alto de Padornelo as a launching point to attempt to win the stage. Of the ‘chancers’ I like his odds at 41.0 for an EW bet.
I would like the chances of Gianluca Brambilla (Etixx-Quickstep) on this stage if he weren’t for two factors. First, he is in the top 10 overall and at present a GC threat. Were he to attack he will be closely marked. Second, his team might fancy a sprint finish as Meersman would be in with a great chance of winning. Brambilla did win a Giro d’Italia stage this year on similar gradients. Brambilla was 34.0 that day as he is for stage 7 – an omen? Might be worth a little bet.
Like previous days – if you fancy a breakaway rider look for:
- Riders from teams with no GC contender;
- Riders who yet to feature in breaks;
- Choose riders who are more than 10 minutes down on GC – they will be given greater leeway;
- Riders from Spanish teams.
Vuelta a Espana Stage 7 – Tips
Bet on Gianni Meersman to complete the hat-trick and win stage 7 with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 8.00 with Paddy Power.
Back Simon Clarke to win stage 7 with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 34.00 with Paddy Power.
Bet here:
