Vuelta a Espana Stage 18 is the longest stage of the final week of racing. It is a stage that should see the sprinters getting a chance at a win.
Vuelta a Espana Stage 18 – The Profile
Stage 18 just takes the riders back over the 200km mark. The stage starts in Requena and ends in Gandía.
The profile for the day shows lumpy terrain, one categorised climb and an easier second half to the stage.
Stage 18’s high point of the day comes at 69kms on the Pto. de Casa del Alto. The Pto. de Casa del Alto is a category 2 climb that is 13.3kms at 3.8%. From here the roads are up and down for ther next 50kms or so. Thankfully, the run in to Gandía is mostly downhill.
Obviously, for a Vuelta stage the day will feature a break. It might form early but if not it will develop from 30kms onwards as the gradient rises. The sprint teams will need to be careful that it doesn’t build too big a gap. If they have 5 minutes+ at the 130km point they might not be seen again!
Break or Sprint?
Break riders
We’re not really expected a breakaway to succeed with the lack of chances the sprinters have had recently but one man who is likely to go in the early break is Thomas De Gendt. He isn’t too low down in the mountain classification and there are a few points to be mopped up and he might well be one to try and get them. At 50/1 he is worthy of a bit of support in case Wednesday’s heavy day has affected the legs in the peloton.
Jan Bakelants is another who likes to have a go on this sort of stage and at 50/1 he is also worth a couple of quid just in case the breakaway succeeds and he gets himself in it. It might not be quite tough enough for him to get away and stay clear but he seems motivated which is half the battle when picking a breakaway contender. We’re focusing our main bet on the sprint though.
Sprint
Gianni Meersman has been the pick of the sprinters in the race so far although he failed on Stage 16. His lead out train got messed about with a late charge off the front and in the end the Belgian had to go it alone from far out and couldn’t quite hang on. We’re not expecting anything like that here though and having messed up that stage Etixx Quick-Step won’t want to repeat that. The good thing is by messing up the earlier stage we get a better price for this one. At 9/2 he’s our bet for the stage.
JP Drucker took advantage of Meersman’s early lead out in the last sprint stage and to be fair he looked strong at the finish but on an even setting with Meersman I’m not sure he is the one who will come out on top. He could be an each way bet to nothing but these sprints have rarely gone without trouble so I’m not sure it is worth the hassle.
Nikias Arndt‘s Giant Alpecin team are here just for sprinting but they haven’t really convinced at any stage in the race. That could mean they are fresh for this stage but it could also mean they have no form and the latter worries me especially at a pretty cramped price. If his train are fit and he gets the openings he could be competitive but we still favour Meersman.
Fabio Felline has shown competitive signs earlier in the race but he didn’t compete in the sprint on Monday due to ‘bad legs’ and that is an immediate turn off even allowing for the fact this is a pretty ordinary set of sprinters. If we knew his legs were good we could be lured in at the price but we don’t so we’re not.
Vuelta a Espana Stage 18 – Tips
Back G.Meersman to win Stage 18 for a 3/10 stake at 5.50 with Ladbrokes
Back T.De Gendt to win Stage 18 (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 51.00 with Ladbrokes (1/4 1-3)
Back J.Bakelants to win Stage 18 (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 51.00 with Ladbrokes (1/4 1-3)
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