We saw a piece of sporting history made at the US Open on Saturday when Emma Raducanu became the first qualifier to win a Grand Slam and on Sunday night further history could be made as Novak Djokovic takes on Daniil Medvedev for his own place in the record books.
Djokovic is not only playing to be the leading male in the history of tennis in terms of Grand Slam wins but he would also be the first man in over 50 years to win the Calendar Grand Slam – winning all four majors in the same year. Medvedev is playing for his first Slam title so this final is beautifully setup.
Novak Djokovic
Just like Serena Williams a few years back, Novak Djokovic has carried the burden of history incredibly well so far this fortnight. Serena didn’t get the job done though and the eyes of the world will be on Djokovic to see if he can get the slice of history on his side. I think it is fair to say that he faces his toughest test in this final and when you consider he has dropped sets in four of his six matches in the tournament to date, history is anything but guaranteed.
Djokovic does know that he has beaten Medvedev in the biggest match they have played which was in the final in the Australian Open at the beginning of the year but he comes into this match off the back of an epic five-set tussle and at 34 he isn’t getting any younger. That could be an issue but experience is very much on his side. This is Grand Slam final number 31 for him and if he wins it will be title number 21 so he knows all about this occasion.
Daniil Medvedev
If you think the path to the final counts for anything then Daniil Medvedev will have plenty going for him in your mind. That is because he has only dropped one set so far in this tournament and in truth he was 2-0 up against a qualifier at the time and knew he wasn’t losing the match so he can probably be forgiven for dropping his intensity a little. The rest of the matches have been pretty smooth for him. It will be interesting to see what he has should this final go close, which I would imagine most judges would expect it to.
Medvedev is chasing a first Grand Slam title but this is his third major final so he will be beginning to understand what the occasion is like. His first final was here two years ago when he ran Rafael Nadal to a decider in conditions that probably weren’t as suitable to his game as the ones he will play this final in. Medvedev also won in Toronto coming in here so the world number two looks set to lay down a serious challenge to Djokovic here.
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Head to Head
These two men have met on eight previous occasions with Djokovic leading their head to head 5-3 but Medvedev will be buoyed by the fact that he has won three of the last five so after taking three matches to believe he can beat Djokovic he has held his own against him since then. They have met six times on a hard court and it is 4-2 to Djokovic in that regard. The Serbian also leads their meetings in finals and in Grand Slams. They have twice met in a Grand Slam with Djokovic winning both matches and their one final was in Australia earlier in the year which Djokovic won 75 62 62.
Betting
Daniil Medvedev lost to Novak Djokovic in straight sets in Australia earlier in the season but the Russian had to really battle into that final which he hasn’t done here. The slower conditions didn’t suit him anything like as much as these quicker ones will so I expect the Russian to lay down a significant challenge in this final. Whether that will be strong enough to beat Djokovic over five sets I’m less sure but he wasn’t a million miles off beating Nadal in five here a few years ago.
I wouldn’t put anyone off backing Medvedev but Djokovic is so mentally strong and so good in the pressure moments that there is every chance you’ll get touched off in a close battle so the best bet might be to take the over 37.5 games here. This is a low line, obviously with a straight sets win in mind but I don’t see that at all. I think Medvedev is better than that and four sets should see this line covered as you’d think there would be a tight set somewhere along the line. The over looks good here.
Tips
Back Over 37.5 games for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Bet365
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