The US Open draws to a close in New York on Sunday when the men’s final takes place with some real anticipation about it as there could be a home winner for the first time in over 20 years when Taylor Fritz meets the world number one Jannik Sinner.
Both men have battled their way through to the final and we will either see the Italian win a second Grand Slam of the year or the American will make a breakthrough at this level in front of his home crowd. This should be a decent final.
Jannik Sinner
Although he won in Cincinnati in the lead up to this tournament, Jannik Sinner went into the event under a bit of a cloud after the drug test revelations between the Ohio competition and this one. He hasn’t let that put him off though and he has made it through to the final having dropped just two sets in the entire tournament and the longer it has gone on the more he has looked like the world number one which is the status that he holds.
If there is a concern going into this final, Sinner has had the physio on the court in the last couple of matches so you sense that he isn’t 100% in terms of his fitness and with this match being brought forward a couple of hours to the middle of the day that could certainly be an issue. His game is good enough to win this though. He is hitting the ball brilliantly and has shown a patience to break down his opponent in long rallies which is never a bad thing in a five set match.
Taylor Fritz
This has been the fortnight of Taylor Fritz’s life so far but being the elite sportsman that he is none of that will count for anything if he doesn’t maximise his opportunity and claim a first Grand Slam title. Fritz has had to battle a lot harder than Sinner has to make it this far. He had to go the distance to come through in the semi-final and dropped a set in each of the two matches prior to that so it will be interesting to see how full the Fritz tank is for this final.
The big thing will be whether the American is nervous. You get the impression that Fritz is going to need to start this final well. It is hard to reel Sinner back when he gets out in front. He’ll also need to serve incredibly well because he isn’t likely to get a huge amount of joy in the longer rallies that Sinner seems happy to thrive on this week. If he can serve well and start well and get the crowd into this final then he could have a chance of the upset.
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Head-to-head
These two have met twice in their careers in the past, both of which came at Indian Wells, and they have shared those meetings. Fritz won in straight sets when they met there in 2021 before Sinner got his revenge over three sets last year. They were both in the earlier stages of the tournament and conditions there are a lot slower than they are here so quite how much we can read into the history of it all remains to be seen.
Betting
The consensus is that Jannik Sinner is starting to come to the boil and might dominate this match but I’m not sure it is one that I want to get behind. I say that because he dropped a set against Daniil Medvedev in the quarter final before figuring it out and prior to that Tommy Paul took him to a couple of tiebreaks and even in the semi-final a visibly sick Jack Draper took him to a tiebreak in the second set but had nothing left to give it in. I don’t see Taylor Fritz being beaten by his body here like Draper was.
I do see him being beaten though but there is enough this week to suggest that Fritz can win at least a set. Sinner should have lost the opening set to Tommy Paul from 1-4 down and could easily have dropped either of the first two sets to Jack Draper. I do think the longer the match goes on the Italian will wear down the American so it might be that Fritz takes the opening set but then Sinner clicks into gear. The 11/8 on Sinner winning and both winning a set looks a fair price to me.
Tips
Back J.Sinner to win and both players to win a set for a 3/10 stake at 2.38 with Boylesports
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