All eyes will be on one woman in America for the next two weeks as Serena Williams bids to complete the ‘Serena Slam’ – winning all four Slams in the same calendar year. Were she to complete the feat that would be historic enough but defending her US Open title would also move her level with Steffi Graf on 22 Grand Slam singles titles.
Williams has won this title no fewer than six times and hasn’t been beaten at Flushing Meadows since 2011. New York is very much her home and it is no surprise that she is odds on to win this tournament. You could, based on her previous record here, argue that 10/11 is value on the woman who will surely go on to break Margaret Court’s all time Grand Slam titles record.
That said though if Williams is going to win this tournament and complete the set for 2015 she’s going to have to do it the hard way. The reason for that is she has a horrible draw. Just to come out of her quarter she’s going to have to see off Sloane Stephens, a player who has beaten her in a Slam before, Madison Keys who is the potential pretender to Serena’s throne, Belinda Bencic who beat her in Toronto recently and Karolina Pliskova who bombs serves down.
When you think Serena had to battle like mad at both the French Open and Wimbledon with arguably more comfortable draws than that one then all of a sudden perhaps the 10/11 doesn’t offer such great value after all.
Should Serena make it past the quarter finals her task has been made easier in that her chief danger in the top half of the draw – Maria Sharapova, has pulled out of the tournament on the eve of the event.
That opens up the second quarter and there is one lady I really like in it. Ana Ivanovic is now the highest seed left in the quarter but she’s drawn a rank first round draw in the dangerous Dominika Cibulkova. Sharapova exited the top part of this quarter and that could play into the hands of last year’s semi-finalist Ekaterina Makarova.
Makarova is probably even now better known for her doubles exploits than her singles ones but her left handed serve can be used to good effect and she has plenty of power in her groundstrokes which is the way forward on these hard courts, especially if the tournament experiences temperatures like it did 12 months ago.
Makarova’s odds have shortened with the news Sharapova has pulled out but with only Elina Svitolina an obvious danger before the quarter final the Russian should be taken to replicate her run of last year.
I’m not keen to take Serena on outright at the best of times but I’m certainly not going to do it with anyone in her half so dominant is she here but the bottom half has some betting potential for place money at the very least.
The likes of Petra Kvitova, Caroline Wozniacki and Simona Halep are all in the bottom half of the draw as are dangerous floaters like Victoria Azarenka, Sara Errani and Garbine Mugaruza.
Petra Kvitova hasn’t got the best record in this tournament having never been past the fourth round but she should be full of confidence heading into this renewal after winning in New Haven last week. She saw off Wozniacki and Safarova in that tournament and both could oppose her this week so she has a mental boost over those two.
In truth the bottom half of the draw looks pretty open to me but Azarenka aside there isn’t a Grand Slam champion who I would consider a genuine contender given that Azarenka pulled out of a recent tournament with injury.
When push comes to shove while Wozniacki, Safarova, Halep et al all get it done on the regular tour events the Slams are a different proposition and in an open side of the draw the Czech left hander, who has a serve with the potential to be very dangerous this fortnight, looks the best value given we know she can win when it really matters having won two Wimbledon titles.
Back P.Kvitova to win US Open (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 26.00 with Winner Sports (1/2 1-2)
Back E.Makarova to win 2nd Quarter for a 2/10 stake at 7.50 with Stan James
