The last Grand Slam of 2016 begins on Monday when the US Open kicks off in a new look Flushing Meadows in New York as the stars of the tennis world go at it over the best of five sets for the final time.
The Slams have been dominated by two men so far this year – Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray but there is a sense heading into this tournament that this one could be much more open.
Recent Winners
2015 – Novak Djokovic
2014 – Marin Cilic
2013 – Rafael Nadal
2012 – Andy Murray
2011 – Novak Djokovic
2010 – Rafael Nadal
2009 – Juan Martin del Potro
2008 – Roger Federer
2007 – Roger Federer
2006 – Roger Federer
The Format
As with all the Grand Slams every match is the best of five sets but the US Open is one which holds a tie-break in the final set. The tournament is pre-drawn and is a knockout event right from the beginning.
Top Quarter
Novak Djokovic enters the tournament as the number one seed even though he has admitted he isn’t fully fit by any means. The defending champion has looked a shade more normal that we would normally expect in recent times including at Wimbledon where he was beaten early by Sam Querrey.
Opposing Djokovic in this section of the draw are some decent seeds. The 2014 champion Marin Cilic is in this section fresh from winning in Cincinnati last weekend while Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Richard Gasquet can be dangerous if given the chance. Martin Klizan, John Isner, Kevin Anderson and Jack Sock are the other seeds in a heavy delivery part of the draw.
British eyes will be on this section of the draw as Kyle Edmund is in it. He faces Gasquet in the first round. Wimbledon last 16 finisher Jiri Vesely is also in this part to add another heavy server to the list of bombers on show.
Second Quarter
Rafael Nadal is the headline seed in this section of the draw on his return to New York. Nadal missed the tournament last year because of injury so he will be eager to get back underway in the Big Apple. Nadal showed he is back near his best at the Olympics and with some big names absent or in questionable form he’ll be eyeing up a deep run.
Milos Raonic is the next seed in the section, a section which is also housed in terms of seeds by Gael Monfils, Roberto Bautista Agut, Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Lucas Pouille, Pablo Cuevas and Benoit Paire so there are a lot of solid players for Nadal to face but nothing too special.
In terms of floaters Gilles Muller, Nicolas Almagro, Marcos Baghdatis and Adrian Mannarino all have game on their day while Thomaz Bellucci enjoyed a decent Olympics but this looks a nice section for somebody.
Third Quarter
Stan Wawrinka is the top seed in this section but this one looks loaded with talent. The Swiss star has never really fulfilled his potential in this tournament and I would imagine the boisterous crowd could be something to do with that but on his day he is more than a match for anyone.
Dominic Thiem is the other top eight seed in this quarter with the other six seeds being Sam Querrey, Steve Johnson, David Ferrer, Nick Kyrgios, Bernard Tomic and Alexander Zverev so much of the young generation are in this part of the draw.
The most dangerous non seed of them all is in this section too as the rejuvenated former champion Juan Martin del Potro finds himself in this part of the draw. Fabio Fognini, Fernando Verdasco and last week’s runner up Pablo Carreno Busta are other floaters in this portion of the draw.
Bottom Quarter
Wimbledon and Olympic champion Andy Murray is the top seed down in the bottom quarter. He will be looking for a second US Open title and was on a fantastic winning run before losing to Marin Cilic in the final of Cincinnati last weekend. It will be interesting to see how much Murray has left in the tank after an emotional summer.
Kei Nishikori will be his chief opponent en route to the semi-final but the likes of Philipp Kohlschreiber, Ivo Karlovic, David Goffin, Feliciano Lopez, Grigor Dimitrov and Gilles Simon are all seeds looking for deep runs.
Jeremy Chardy, Borna Coric, Viktor Troicki and Nicolas Mahut are men to avoid from those in this quarter who aren’t seeded but Murray will probably be quite happy with his draw, at least up until the semi-final.
Betting
I’m taking two men outright this year. Neither of them are particularly big prices but I do think they will give us a run for our money which is what I’m looking for. I’ve a feeling the main two are opposable here, at least I hope they are.
Firstly in the top half of the draw Rafael Nadal looks overpriced for a man who is seeded to meet the semi-final and with the exception of the Wimbledon runner-up Milos Raonic doesn’t really look to have anyone with a Grand Slam pedigree opposing him.
Nadal looked fantastic in the Olympics and we know he loves New York and if he can continue to build confidence and get into the second week where all of his matches will be on Ashe where the wind will no longer influence him he should offer a big run.
The other man I can’t ignore is Juan Martin del Potro. The brutality he was hitting his serve and forehand and the success he had with it in the Olympics gives off a huge impression that on these faster courts he is a man to be feared. It was the best I’ve seen him play since he won this tournament seven years ago.
He has landed in the perfect section of the draw with Stan Wawrinka never completely convincing here and a bunch of young guns who lack big tournament experience around that. Del Potro might still be in the infancy of his return to the big time but he’s as dangerous as anyone here whether that includes a semi-final with Murray or not.
I’m also going to play someone in the other two quarters as I do believe the main two are there for the taking this fortnight. In the top quarter I’m going with another former champion in Marin Cilic. It is the obvious pick to take Djokovic on with and at 6/1 the right pick too.
He fits the bill nicely. He won’t face Djokovic until the quarter final when we would be on the Croat at 6/1 and more importantly we know he can beat Djokovic as he has done it before and these would be the conditions he can do it in. He comes in here with plenty of belief after his win in Cincinnati so I’ll take him in that section.
I think it is worth taking someone in Andy Murray’s section as the Brit could be absolutely knackered from all the tennis he has played recently. If I’m honest there isn’t a whole lot that I like because we saw in the Olympics that Nishikori is beaten by Murray long before they go near the court and the rest of the seeds aren’t great.
With that in mind I’ll have a tiny piece of big Ivo Karlovic. If the weather gets humid and the courts speed right up his serving weapon really comes into play and if Murray is jaded and doesn’t make the quarter final the Croat could take advantage of it. Plenty of stars would need to align for this to land but at 66/1 the chance is there.
Tips
Back R.Nadal to win US Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Boylesports (1/2 1-2)
Back J-M.del Potro to win US Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 23.00 with Boylesports (1/2 1-2)
Back them here:
Back M.Cilic to win 1st Quarter for a 2/10 stake at 7.00 with Paddy Power
Back him here:
Back I.Karlovic to win 4th Quarter for a 1/10 stake at 67.00 with Skybet
Back him here:
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