There is one week to go before Augusta National opens its doors for The Masters, which means that the PGA Tour stages the Valero Texas Open, the traditional event which precedes the opening major of any season.
Akshay Bhatia made it into The Masters by winning this tournament a year ago and that opportunity is there for anyone who hasn’t yet made it into the field for next week should they take the title from the left-hander.
Recent Winners
2024 – Akshay Bhatia
2023 – Corey Conners
2022 – J.J. Spaun
2021 – Jordan Spieth
2019 – Corey Conners
2018 – Andrew Landry
2017 – Kevin Chappell
2016 – Charley Hoffman
2015 – Jimmy Walker
2014 – Steven Bowditch
The Course
Once again the tournament takes place at TPC San Antonio this week. This is one of the tougher courses on the circuit when the wind blows which is interesting because next week at Augusta the players are going to be on a scoreable course. The wind is expected to be relevant for the whole of the tournament, building up to something significant for the final round, and we might even get some rain in amongst the wind in the middle rounds so the players are going to need to manage the conditions well.
The track is a par 72 which measures 7,438 yards with some lengthy par 5s which even the longer hitters can’t reach. The trick to this place is hitting these large, undulating greens in regulation and then holing putts on them. This is becoming one of the biggest ball striker tracks on the PGA Tour. This isn’t going to be a shootout so the players who are proficient and accurate with the longer clubs are the ones most likely to contend.
The Field
When you consider that we are only a week away from The Masters and this track isn’t anything like as close to a guide to Augusta National as we had in the Houston Open last week, the field here is still quite good all things considered. There is a strong European charge in Houston which is headed up by the Ryder Cup trio of Ludvig Aberg, Tommy Fleetwood and Justin Rose, all of whom are already in the field at Augusta next week. Matt Fitzpatrick is another European here teeing it up next week.
As you would expect, there is a decent international offering here including the man who loves this place in Corey Conners. He is joined by Presidents Cup teammates Hideki Matsuyama, Si Woo Kim, Tom Kim and Ryan Fox among others while the home charge is headed up by Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, who is always popular in Texas, the defending champion Akshay Bhatia and the Ryder Cup captain Keegan Bradley among many other competitive Americans.
Market Leaders
Ludvig Aberg will go into the week as the favourite to win the tournament. His form has been a little patchy by his standards recently but he did win The Genesis Invitational in that run which is probably why he is the 12/1 favourite to win this week. He went well enough here a year ago when finishing T14 before going close at Augusta but he is now at a standing in the game which is so high that you wonder if he is here to win or to keep the swing oiled for next week. That puts me off at the price.
Thw two-time champion Corey Conners is next in the betting at 16/1. He won around here in 2019 and 2023 and has a couple of other decent runs in this tournament. That isn’t a surprise because he is one of the best ball strikers in the business but there is something about these greens which seem to agree with him which is never a bad thing. He has gone 3-T6-T8 in his last three tournaments so to say he is trending in the right direction would be an understatement. The question is whether he is a touch too short.
Tommy Fleetwood and Patrick Cantlay are both 18/1 on the best prices this week. Fleetwood doesn’t win regularly enough at this level for me to trust him at 18/1 but he was at least T7 on debut here a year ago and he is as clean a ball striker as there is for those who are happy to invest. It is interesting that Cantlay is on debut here this week. This tournament should really suit him and if he is here to install some extra confidence he could run well.
Hideki Matsuyama is the only other player in the market who is 20/1 or shorter to win the tournament this week. You can back him at exactly that as he adds the finishing touches to his preparations for a second Masters title. The immediate thing with the Japanese ace would be is he here to win or just build on something for next week. If it is the latter I wouldn’t want to be near him but two top 20s in the last two years would suggest he fancies a deep run so he probably shouldn’t be ruled out.
Main Bets
While it might not be ideal that Patrick Cantlay is on debut in this tournament, there aren’t many better players in the field than him and this course should really play to his ball striking prowess likely to come to the fore. Cantlay is in decent enough nick heading here but you sense he wants to go to Augusta with a win under his belt as it doesn’t make much sense for him to make his debut in the tournament for any other reason when you consider he doesn’t have a terrible record at The Masters. If Cantlay is here to win like I think he is then in this company 18/1 feels a big price.
Daniel Berger is ranked at 14 on the ball striking statistic on the PGA Tour this season and that always holds up around here, especially when that player isn’t terrible with the putter too. Berger is in next week so he doesn’t have to worry about playing his way in to The Masters and can go on the attack here. Berger has made the top 25 on six occasions this season including in his last five events and after a couple of weeks off since TPC Sawgrass he should be nicely rested for a decent tilt at this tournament if his long game remains as strong as it has been.
Outsiders
Rickie Fowler is a staple diet at Augusta usually but he doesn’t have a tee time next week yet. He should be buoyed by playing a key role in the TGL event and while this is completely different to that, we should remember that Ludvig Aberg has won a tournament shortly after playing in that, Tom Kim went close to winning and then last week Min Woo Lee won so there is something about facing the best of the best indoors that has inspired players. Fowler is more than good enough to take a tournament of this kind down and with the added motivation I think he could be worth a punt this week. His game looked in decent shape on the simulator and if that can come outdoors here he could be a decent price.
Sami Valimaki was tied for third in the ball striking statistic last week courtesy of leading the field in greens in regulation. He would be higher up it overall if he didn’t have a few indifferent days off the tee but he was ranked 16 for total driving last week and that bodes well going in here. The Finn finished with a 62 last week and if he can carry that confidence with him here then he could be a huge price at a three-figure price. Over the season, Valimaki is ranked 16 for strokes gained on approach and strokes gained putting and off the back of a fourth placed finish a week ago I think he is worth a try.
Tips
Back P.Cantlay to win Valero Texas Open (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 19.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-6)
Back D.Berger to win Valero Texas Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back R.Fowler to win Valero Texas Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back S.Valimaki to win Valero Texas Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 111.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
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