After three intense weeks of golf on excellent tracks fit for bigger tournaments than they hosted there is something of a comedown feel to the PGA Tour this week as the Florida Swing continues with the Valspar Championship from Palm Harbor.
This is just a regular PGA Tour event but with the Matchplay and the Masters rapidly approaching most of the big names have decided to give the event a miss which is fair enough.
Not all of them have though. Jordan Spieth arguably launched his career to the levels it is at now when he won this tournament last year and he is nothing but loyal to events which serve him well and he defends the crown. He is an 11/2 favourite to retain his title.
The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is the venue for this tournament once again but it has had a bit of a makeover since Spieth won the title. A couple of bunkers have been regenerated and the greens have been re-laid and made slightly bigger in areas.
Historically this has been a strategical course which has had the tendency to turn into a putting contest and I’m not expecting much different. Although it is a par 71 there are still four par 5s on the course and five par 3s so iron play is a big factor here.
Spieth is likely to take all the beating this week. We can largely ignore his efforts at Doral because that course was always going to be too long for him. If anything a top 20 finish is as good as it could get for him there and if the putter plays the game this week he’s a strong chance to defend the title successfully.
Even with all that in mind I can’t take anyone at 11/2 especially when the likes of Henrik Stenson (14/1), Danny Willett (20/1), Jason Dufner (28/1) and Patrick Reed (30/1) are in the field looking to take him on so as always I’m going to look for the value again this week.
For me the value lies with Graeme McDowell. Yes it isn’t ideal that he plays the course for the first time this week but I think he will really like what he sees with the strategic element to the track and the fact that his laser like straight driving will get plenty of rewards this week.
We know Gmac has a short game and a putter which can compete anywhere but when a course suits his tee to green game like this one he becomes really dangerous. We’ve already seen that in the OHL Classic and indeed the RSM Classic the following week and he comes here in good form too.
He was fifth at PGA National two weeks ago and but for a horror show on the final hole at Doral last week would have been under par there too. His game looks in the sort of shape for him to really contend here.
Sean O’Hair seems to enjoy life around this track. He won here back in 2008 and came of age again in this tournament last year when he lost to Spieth in a playoff. His career was really in the doldrums going into that week so to be able to perform as well as he did just goes to show the love affair he has for this course and how it brings the best out of his game.
O’Hair stats well for this track this season. He is just outside the top 30 for total driving, inside the top 10 for strokes gained putting and in the top 30 for scrambling so his game is showing all the right signs for another strong tilt at the title.
I had a couple of dabbles on Patton Kizzire earlier in the season and really talked him up when I did so but we went into the stage of the season which didn’t suit him as much but I think we’ve come out of the other side of that now and I fancy there’s a big run from him not too far away.
Kizzire began the season well which came hot on the heels of leading the money list on the web.com tour last year and he was right there at Torrey Pines not so long ago until he was a victim of the mental conditions of the final day. A couple of weeks ago he had a couple of eye catching rounds in The Honda Classic so his form looks to be coming back.
Kizzire is tenth in strokes gained putting this season so if this does become a putting contest he’s going to leave a few behind with the short stick and he’s under par for the par 3s on tour this season which could be important with five of them around here. He’s no stranger to a decent week in Florida in his younger days and I’m expecting him to deliver one in the pro ranks in this tournament.
As I said a couple of weeks ago whenever there is the threat of a putting contest breaking out there is only one man I want on my side and that is Steve Stricker. To be fair Riviera might just have played too long for him that week but this place won’t and the fact that Stricker was still able to finish just outside the top 10 in an ultra-strong field compared to this bodes well for this week.
Stricker’s positional sense off the fairway will see him always in play and it is no surprise that he leads the strokes gained putting. He’ll have plenty of birdie chances this week and off the back of a solid effort at Riviera I fancy him to give us a run for our money at a huge price.
Finally I’m going to dabble in the top 20 market and have a punt on David Toms. Toms stats really well for this course. He is fifth in driving accuracy, leads the scrambling and is fifth in strokes gained putting on the PGA Tour this season and if they all come together this week he is entitled to be right there.
Toms was second in the Sanderson Farms Championship earlier in the season, a tournament which was a bit of a putting contest on a course which gave the shorter hitters a chance. Most of the stars of golf were in Asia for the World Golf Championship event that week so this is a tougher assignment but the course layout gives him every chance of finishing at least in the top 20.
Back S.O’Hair to win Valspar Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back P.Kizzire to win Valspar Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
PLACED – Back S.Stricker to win Valspar Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back D.Toms Top 20 Finish for a 1/10 stake at 10.00 with Skybet
Back him here:
Back G.McDowell to win Valspar Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 36.00 with Stan James (1/4 1-6)
