Even though we are only a week away from another major championship, there is the latest Signature Event on the PGA Tour this week when the stars of the circuit head to Quail Hollow for the Wells Fargo Championship.
This is often a benchmark for who we might see contending in the remaining majors in the season as Wyndham Clark proved when he won here last year before going on to win the US Open. He is back to defend against a top field.
Recent Winners
2023 – Wyndham Clark
2022 – Max Homa
2021 – Rory McIlroy
2019 – Max Homa
2018 – Jason Day
2017 – Brian Harman
2016 – James Hahn
2015 – Rory McIlroy
2014 – JB Holmes
2013 – Derek Ernst
The Course
After leaving here for a year in 2022 so that the course could be used for the Presidents Cup, we returned to Quail Hollow last year and that is where the tournament will be played this time around too. The course has always been a par 71 and it is a real monster, one which is even longer this year after a new tee was put in on hole 16. That means it can now stretch to 7,558 yards so those who get it out there are clearly going to benefit this week.
This course is generally all about the Green Mile, the last three holes where so much damage can be done to the card. The course has been a little easier in the last couple of stagings of this event due to the soft nature of it but the rough is penal enough this week and the wind is expected to keep everyone honest so we could be in for a major like test ahead of the PGA next week. Length is required here but so too is every skill in the game. This is a great test of golf.
The Field
It is open to debate just how many of the 69 players in the field would really want to be playing this week with a huge tournament ahead of them next week but such is the prize pool and the benefits that are up for grabs this week that with the exception of the impending new father Scottie Scheffler and the injured Ludvig Aberg, everyone who has qualified is in the field looking for the ideal confidence boost ahead of next week. That includes the defending champion Wyndham Clark.
Rory McIlroy has won three times around here and he takes his place in the field while Max Homa, twice a winner of the tournament but only once on this course, is also in the field this week. This is a track which is special to Justin Thomas as well as he won his first major title here while the likes of Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Collin Morikawa and Sahith Theegala will be looking to build some momentum for next week as will Taylor Pendrith who played his way into the field by winning the CJ Cup Byron Nelson last week.
Market Leaders
With no Scottie Scheffler here this week it is left to Rory McIlroy to be the market leader on a course that he generally devours. He is the 15/2 favourite this week but it will be interesting to see how being snubbed to go back on the PGA Tour player council will sit with him. He hasn’t been in brilliant form but golfers are often horses for courses and just on that alone he can’t really be ruled out but he has mentioned a few times that he lives for the majors now and with one next week I wonder how strongly he’ll be determined to win this.
Xander Schauffele will probably take any title at the minute such is the way that his form has dropped off and you would imagine at 10/1 he’ll be giving it his all here. He was the closest challenger to Wyndham Clark here a year ago so we know that he can handle the track and generally in these events where he knows he has four rounds before he tees off he can be a bit of a monster. He doesn’t win enough for me to back him at 10/1 though.
The defending champion Wyndham Clark is 16/1 to make a successful defence of the title this week. He wasn’t necessarily a shock winner last year but he wouldn’t have been among the leading challengers going in. Since then though he has won twice and posted a host of other top finishes and merits maximum respect here. This will be the first time he attempts to defend a title though and that might affect him a little more than I’d like so I’ll leave him alone this time around.
Patrick Cantlay is the only other player in the field who is shorter than 22/1 this week. You can get the American at 18/1 to win this tournament which doesn’t feel like too bad a price, except like his mate Xander Schauffele, he has stopped winning. He did post a T3 at the RBC Heritage a few weeks ago though and Cantlay has always been one for the tougher tracks but whether he is long enough for this place remains to be seen. He isn’t for me.
Main Bets
Sahith Theegala has been my go to bet for a lot of this season and he is again. I’ve mentioned above how Quail Hollow can often identify future major champions (four of the last five winners here have now won a major and Max Homa will surely complete that set soon) and I do think Theegala has the all-round game to add himself to the list. He gets it out there off the tee and is aggressive into the greens. That isn’t always great but when you have a good short game should you miss the greens then it doesn’t make much difference. He is inside the top 10 on the PGA Tour when it comes to gaining strokes with the putter though and that might be where he gets a leg up on the field this week. The fact the course might be softer on the opening day after some overnight inclement weather further helps his cause so I like him as my first main bet.
Earlier in the year I was waiting for the right opportunity to back Sam Burns but it never really presented itself. He had a run of four straight top 10 finishes during the west coast leg of the season but just as I expected him to kick on his form kind of came off a cliff however he has just revealed that his partner has given birth to his first child and it is understandable if that took his mind off the golf course so now that he is back on the road I expect him to be back in the groove again. We see it all the time in this sport that when new fathers have something else to focus on rather than the nuances of their golf game they go well and I see no reason why Burns can’t do that here. He doesn’t have a great record around here but with lower expectations his excellent putting and solid long game might well deliver a strong week.
Outsiders
I’ll also play a couple of outsiders this week as well with Billy Horschel the first of those on my radar. Horschel won the Corales Puntacana Championship last month so he will be bringing plenty of confidence into the tournament with him. He is sat at 14 in the strokes gained putting on the PGA Tour this season and that is definitely no bad thing around here. Horschel usually skips this event but given that he played his way in he is obliged to give it a go and I think he’ll like the layout in front of him. There is a chance he might not be long enough for here but he has won at Wentworth which tends to favour bombers these days so that might not be the negative it might be. At an outsider price I’ll have a go with him this week.
The other man I like this week is the debutant Matthieu Pavon who won on a not too dissimilar course to this at Torrey Pines earlier in the season and can follow up here on debut. He is longer than you would think he might be off the tee and hits a lot of greens and as he showed at the Farmers Insurance Open he can certainly putt well. He is inside the top 20 for strokes gained putting on the PGA Tour this season and sits at 14 in strokes gained on approach so if he can manage his way off the tees here he is in with a big chance. Pavon was also third at Pebble Beach and T12 at The Masters so he has a liking for iconic tracks and can go well around this one too.
Tips
Back S.Theegala to win Wells Fargo Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back S.Burns to win Wells Fargo Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-6)
Back B.Horschel to win Wells Fargo Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-6)
Back M.Pavon to win Wells Fargo Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 111.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-6)
