As is often the case in the snooker world these days, as one tournament finishes another one starts immediately and that is the case on Monday when 128 of the best in the world descend on Cardiff for the Welsh Open.
This tournament has undergone some moderations in recent seasons not least the drop to the best of seven frames from the first round up until the end of the last 16 but this year it looks particularly frantic with a different round of the tournament being played each day. Whoever wins this event will have played seven straight days so a bit of stamina and mental strength will be needed this week.
With the switch to the best of seven frames the early stages of this tournament will be a bit like a European Tour event. I always feel that the European Tour events require a different type of approach. They suit the aggressive players who start well and get their opponents under pressure from the outset.
With that in mind I’m going to treat this tournament a bit like a European Tour event and take someone from each quarter in the hope that we get a couple go deep in the competition and gives us a decision to make later in the week.
I’m looking at players with a decent record in best of seven frame events but who have the quality to compete over longer should they need to. Thankfully a couple of firms are paying four places so we only need someone to make the semi-finals to get a pay-out.
The top quarter is headlined by the defending champion John Higgins but doesn’t lack for big names with Barry Hawkins, Mark Allen and Michael White also in the section. I think it is fair to say this is the weakest quarter in the draw but it might turn out to be one of the most competitive.
I toyed between Ryan Day and Liang Wenbo for this section but I’ve gone with the latter based on his run in the UK Championship and the fact that the pressure of playing at home could go against Day especially with no Welsh winner of this event since 1999.
Wenbo made it to the final of the UK Championship and he has made a quarter final and a semi-final in the European Tour events this season so he’s in great form and this format should suit him so at 80/1 he looks overpriced to me.
The second quarter is another one stacked with stars. Shaun Murphy and Neil Robertson are the real standout big names but there is also Ding looking to kick his season into life and Marco Fu around too. Fu could have been worth a second look having won a European Tour event this season already but the current form of one man stands out.
That man is Luca Brecel. He has just made the final of the German Masters and as I write he is in the semi-final of the Snooker Shootout so he’s playing nicely. We can’t use the Shootout as a genuine form guide but it shows that Brecel is still cueing well which is important.
The Belgian was a semi-finalist here last year which enhances my liking for him this week. He suits this format nicely too. He’s aggressive. He scores when he gets in but he’s starting to play the right shot more and more. This is often a springboard for a career and it could be Luca’s career that gets the extra leg up this week.
The bottom half of the draw contains some really big names but there are a couple that might just be overpriced despite the likes of Mark Selby, Ronnie O’Sullivan and Judd Trump being in this area of the draw.
In the third quarter the player I think is overpriced is Mark Williams. Although he’s playing at home we know he won’t feel the pressure because he has won this tournament twice and was a semi-finalist in it last year having beaten Judd Trump along the way.
Williams is another who kept his cue arm in gear with a decent run in the Shootout but it is his record in the European Tour events this year that catches my eye. He is the highest ranked player in that order of merit of anyone who hasn’t made a final and that shows his consistency over the seven frame format so he is clearly comfortable in it.
We know he’s relaxed at all times and that often bodes well for him in these tournaments and at 50/1 he looks nicely enough priced to be backed to win a third Welsh title.
Judd Trump, Stephen Maguire and Martin Gould all have good records in this sort of format but I’m going to take a chance that this is the time Stuart Bingham shows us why he is the world champion.
Bingham was the runner up here in 2013 and he has been a regular winner of the PTC/European Tour events. It is fair to say he hasn’t had the best of seasons but he has still made the semi-finals in Shanghai, in a European Tour event in Gibraltar and in The Masters so it hasn’t been a complete disaster.
He has the early draw this week to build some confidence. We know he loves snooker so he’ll relish the chance to play every day whereas some might see it as a grind or a chore and at 25/1 Bingham’s a big price.
Back L.Wenbo to win Welsh Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Boylesports (1/4 1-4)
Back L.Brecel to win Welsh Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Paddy Power (1/4 1-4)
Back M.Williams to win Welsh Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Boylesports (1/4 1-4)
Back S.Bingham to win Welsh Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Boylesports (1/4 1-4)
