The West Indies Tri-Series which has been most enjoyable so far has reached its third and final venue with Barbados hosting the final three round robin matches and the final and those games begin with the last match between Australia and South Africa on Sunday.
The two sides have played each other in Guyana and St Kitts with South Africa winning the first match and Australia getting their revenge on the tiny St Kitts ground but South Africa will know they were in control of that match for large periods so they should be confident going in here.
Australia
Nobody has been consistent in this tournament but at the same time I think Australia have looked the least balanced in the tournament. A lot of that has been their policy to manage the workload of certain players and that is important to remember but if they are to go all the way and win the series I suspect they will need to improve.
Injuries haven’t helped them at times in this series and any team will miss David Warner but with a misfiring middle order there is a lot of pressure on their bowlers if that part of the team continues to misfire as they have been.
South Africa
While South Africa didn’t start the tournament great with a sluggish effort against the West Indies they are improving with every match. I think that was going to happen naturally because conditions in Guyana won’t have suited them especially with the bat and it is no surprise that their highest score of the series came on the better batting decks in St Kitts.
Hashim Amla made a century in the previous match and that is likely to be important going forward. If he, de Villiers and du Plessis can continue scoring runs and the X-Factor players like de Kock, Duminy and Morris chip in around them then we know they have the bowlers to get the job done.
Team News
Steve Smith is an injury doubt for this match. Australia seem confident that he will play but with no practice since picking up a knock in the last game he might be a little rusty. Dave Warner definitely misses out but Mitchell Starc is expected to return to the team.
South Africa might well be unchanged after the absolute thrashing they gave to the West Indies in their previous match. Claude Henderson, their spinning coach, did suggest they could play three spinners here but I would imagine that was just a taunt of Australia’s lack of ability when it comes to playing spin rather than a genuine threat, not that South Africa are much better in that department!
Kensington Oval
This is the first match at the Kensington Oval in this series and indeed only the fifth ODI here since the World Cup final back in 2007. That match ended in farce but at least we know that this one won’t end with bad light as it is a floodlit match.
Of all the decks in the Caribbean I think this one is the best to bat on but the boundaries are a little bigger than at Warner Park so there might be more emphasis on ones and twos rather than fours and sixes. Both the bowlers and the batsmen will enjoy the pace and bounce in the wicket.
Betting
As I’ve done with the first matches at the other two venues I’m going to take it carefully for the first game here. I’m pretty sure I know what to expect from the wicket but I’ll largely take a watching brief especially from all of the side markets and things and line those up for later in the week.
For now though I’m going to take South Africa in this match. Their key batsmen are beginning to really fire and we know they have the bowling attack to do well. Rabada is a revelation at this level while Imran Tahir has just taken seven wickets and should be full of confidence.
Australia have a few issues. Steve Smith being a doubt might make their preparations a little more chaotic than they would like and it looks like Glenn Maxwell is coming back into the side and he has shown little form at all so if the openers don’t fire Australia could have trouble.
South Africa should have won both their matches against Australia in this series but the collapse in St Kitts will only have made them extra determined to put it right here and at odds against they are my call in light of Australia’s selection and form issues.
I’m also going to chance Matthew Wade to top score for the Australians at 25/1. He hasn’t shown much in the series so far but he hasn’t really had much of a chance. We know he can bat though and that is key.
If Smith doesn’t play then Wade could be shifted up the order at some point to accommodate that but more importantly if Smith doesn’t start then it is a form batsman out of the way and there aren’t too many of those in this Australia side. At 25/1 there’s enough in the price to warrant a tiny punt.
Tips
VOID – Back South Africa to beat Australia for a 4/10 stake at 2.20 with Boylesports
Back them here:
VOID – Back M.Wade Top Australia Batsman for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Ladbrokes
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