With the WGC Bridgestone Invitational not starting until Thursday afternoon there is a last chance to get on another market before the action begins.
We’ve already got on what I consider the main contenders and a few outsiders who are likely to give us a run at a big price and now I’m going to focus on the Top American market.
Given that he leads the outright betting it is no surprise that Jordan Spieth is the favourite in this market but he’s been in a press conference and said he’ll need to have a wonderful driving week to compete here. I wouldn’t rule that out but he didn’t sound brilliantly certain he’ll go well so I’m reluctantly content to take him on.
There are some big hitters towards the head of this market in the form of Dustin Johnson and Bubba Watson among others and given that the course is long you would think they will both go well although their accuracy can be questioned which puts me off them. Johnson’s poor short game is another reason to swerve him too.
There are a couple of Americans who have good records around here in Keegan Bradley and Ryan Moore. The latter seems to start fast here and then fade while Bradley maintains his runs for the entire four days. If I was convinced Bradley was in any sort of form I would probably take a chance on him in this market and while I accept that good memories of a course can often inspire positive play his price just doesn’t reflect his current form.
Solid and consistent players like Rickie Fowler, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and the recent Open champion Zach Johnson can never be ruled out on any course even if this one is too long for the latter two while Brooks Koepka and Bill Haas have been in good form recently too but I like another player in this market.
Patrick Reed has a good record in these events. He won at Doral last year and was in the tie for fourth around here and that isn’t a surprise because he hits it long enough and has a brilliant ability to scramble and when it all clicks he can go low as we saw in the early stages of the US Open.
I always think this course reflects nicely with Doral and Augusta and Reed went fairly well in both tournaments this year without actually getting right into contention but we know he’s a confident player who can appear strongly in the big tournaments and at 22/1 I think he looks good value to usurp his fellow Americans this week.
Back P.Reed Top American (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 23.00 with Paddy Power (1/4 1-4)
Blog golf YTD: -8.59pts
