Having missed the Quicken Loans National in terms of a fantasy golf breakdown last week we are back with this section of the golf area for this week’s WGC Bridgestone Invitational.
Obviously the first thing to point out is that only 60 men tee it up this week so finding those lowly picked players won’t be as easy but on the plus side there is no cut so we know whoever we choose will be scoring for the full four rounds for us. That said this is a tournament which can have some low scores and some very high scores so we still need to pick wisely.
Profile
Firestone is a very long course but it is one which suits ball strikers and tee to green machines so we’re going to try and get those on side. Given the length of the course and the tough nature of the tournament this isn’t really a place to find form. Generally those who go well here have been in form in some of the bigger events earlier in the season.
Statistically I’m all about fairways and greens this week but we won’t ignore scrambling because if you do miss these massive greens you’ll have to chip well to keep the dropped shots off the card. Here are our three key statistics:
- Ball Striking
- Proximity to the Pin
- Scrambling
Star Men
This section consists of the players who cost $8,000 and higher where given the strength of the field this week there are a number of them so picking and choosing so we don’t break the salary cap will be crucial.
PICK – Brooks Koepka $9,900
Koepka has the game to go well around here. He belts it miles off the tee and is pretty straight with it and generally finds pins that are accessible. He hasn’t always been hot with the putter but putting comes fairly naturally on these fast greens so if he can keep the ball in play we’ll get some real points from him.
PICK – Shane Lowry $8,700
Lowry is the defending champion so he won’t ever come into my betting focus this week but we can’t leave him out of our fantasy teams. If you’re looking for a big event player you’ve found one. Won his national open as an amateur and just in 2016 alone he has held the lead in The Masters, The Players and the US Open at various times. The tougher the test the better the Irishman is. Don’t leave him out.
PICK – Jason Dufner $8,500
A course machine is Dufner and this season unlike some before it he is a course machine with the confidence of a win behind him. We know Dufner is as good as there is from tee to green and there is something about the greens here that suits him. He won’t drop many shots and there is a good chance of four under par rounds which will ramp up the scoring at a cheap price.
PICK – Daniel Berger $8,200
We can’t ignore Daniel Berger at this price. He’s driving the ball as sweet as a nut right now and when the short stick cooperates he goes on birdie streaks as he has shown when winning the St Jude recently. He is 23rd in both birdie average and par 4 scoring and that should yield decent points as should his finishing position.
AVOID – Justin Rose $10,200
Rose has a good record around here so we are taking on history slightly but with good reason. His putter hasn’t played ball at all this year and these greens find out poor putters but he has been hampered with a back issue which meant he skipped Wentworth and Congressional just last week. Didn’t look in great nick at the US Open and we’re not convinced he’s fully fit. This is a beast of a course to play at less than 100% and he’s far too expensive for us with that in mind.
AVOID – Rickie Fowler $9,000
We’re still not convinced that Fowler is at ease with his game and while he’s guaranteed the four rounds this isn’t a place to be testing out the swing and things. There are much better value picks out there to deliver the goods than the Spice Boy.
Mid-Range Players
In this section we will pick and avoid players between $6,500 and $8,000 which is actually quite a large group despite the restricted field.
PICK – JB Holmes $7,700
Holmes has the length to get around this course in red numbers and that is never a bad week in Akron. His short game and play from within 100 yards has really improved too and that is always tested around here. On length alone he can score nicely for us at a nice price.
PICK – Byeong-Hun An $7,200
Drivers of a golf ball don’t come much sweeter than the Korean and I’m expecting big things. It is a matter of time before he wins a PGA Tour event. He might not win here but his big stick alone will set up plenty of point scoring opportunities. He can complement some big names at this price.
PICK – Scott Piercy $7,100
Another man with the length behind him to tame this beast. This wouldn’t be the first beast he’ll have tamed this month either having gone so well at the US Open. Those greens were scary but these aren’t so in theory Piercy should go even better. Co-led the field at the Cadillac earlier in the season so coming to the boil nicely at this level.
PICK – Smylie Kaufman $6,900
He is already part of our betting portfolio for this tournament but he can make out fantasy teams too. He has a little freedom off the tee, not that he needs it with the way he drives the ball, and he has the length to take the par 5s which could be crucial. He isn’t just a driver though as we’ll see this week.
AVOID – Paul Casey $7,800
The Englishman has been an expensive man to pick in recent times. Two missed cuts in a row and near enough non-events in the two outings before that. His form has gone completely and you don’t find form around this place. At this price he’s an easy swerve.
AVOID – Jimmy Walker $6,900
Walker is another one proving expensive to follow. He has missed two of his last four cuts and is without a top 10 since the last WGC strokeplay event back at the Cadillac in March so even when he is making cuts there aren’t many bonuses coming with it. His driver should have him competitive but that counts for little if the rest of the game isn’t working.
AVOID – Billy Hurley III $6,600
Last week’s success story can be this week’s failure. Credit to him for winning in emotional circumstances last week to get into this tournament but the crest of the wave has been ridden and the inevitable decline is likely to begin on a track far too long for him.
Bottom End Players
We’ll focus on the rest of the players in the draft in this section. That is those who cost less than $6,500. The field strength this week means there aren’t many of these to pick from but we’ll do our best.
PICK – Fabian Gomez $6,100
The Sony Open winner can create plenty of chances with the big dog which is probably the best club in the bag. He certainly hasn’t been clocking up the points in recent weeks but we detected an improvement last week and is cheap enough to chance this week.
PICK – George Coetzee $6,000
If you’ve gone for some big prices and need to smuggle a cheap one in then the South African is a good pick. He is long off the tee and decent into the greens and if we have a week that his putter obliges then he can finish higher than mid-division even in this company.
AVOID – Brian Stuard $5,900
Not sure the Zurich Classic winner belongs in this tournament. He was almost a default winner of that tournament which descended into farce with all the weather. Barely a cut made apart from that and cracked the top 30 just once all season away from New Orleans. He’ll get four rounds and he’ll get paid but we won’t get the rewards we want.
AVOID – Davis Love III $5,700
The US Ryder Cup captain continues to punch above his weight even at the age of 50 but he’s found the last month tough going and this long and tough slog isn’t going to help him at all. If it is a cheap player you’re looking for look elsewhere than at the man who leads the US at Hazeltine.
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