After two really top class tournaments on the PGA Tour we move things up a notch this week for the first World Golf Championships event of 2016 – the WGC Cadillac Championship where it will be bombs away around the redesigned track at Trump Doral in Florida.
The best of the best are teeing it up this week on a golf course which is no longer the pushover it was before the redesign of two years ago. Now it is a real test of golf but sadly for those of us who like to watch all round skills this will definitely be a week for the big hitters.
One of those big hitters is the defending champion this week. That is Dustin Johnson and he is the 12/1 co-second favourite with Bubba Watson and Jordan Spieth. You wouldn’t think this is going to be Spieth’s week with length a massive asset this week. Rory McIlroy tees it up as the 10/1 favourite and it is 14/1 over Adam Scott and Rickie Fowler.
This is a much more limited field than a normal PGA Tour event so the beauty of betting on the competition is that you are guaranteed four rounds from whoever you back so your dough can’t be completely done by Friday evening. As a result we’re only getting five places across the board in most places.
Trump Doral underwent a redesign prior to the 2014 edition of this tournament and the scores since have seen winners win on -4 and -9. 15 yards have been added to the course this year to make it a real monster at 7,543 yards but it is a par 72.
Greens in regulation is a pretty big statistic this week but everyone who has contended since the redesign has been high up on the driving distance statistic. You still need a bit of precision as water is in play on nearly every hole. Indeed over 300 balls found the drink last year so no lead is safe around this track as JB Holmes can testify having blown a five shot lead in the final round 12 months ago.
One other thing to factor into the equation is that the course is exposed to the elements and the only real defence it has is from the wind which is likely to blow this week so a wind exponent might go down well.
Until he won last week I was going to be all over Adam Scott like German Measles here but sadly he won last week, one week too late for me and indeed a week too soon. I never like backing a player who has won the week before not even someone like Scott.
It has been a while since Scott won on the PGA Tour so I’m sure he enjoyed himself afterwards. That said he has a perfect game for this track and he will win again this year of that I’m sure.
I will back the winner of two weeks ago though in Bubba Watson. In many ways this course is similar to Riviera in that length helps and while there is more danger around here there is something about this course that suits Watson and it isn’t just the length of it.
Watson was a runner up here in 2014 and was solo third here last year so he loves the redesigned track. Bubba is sixth in driving distance this season and fourth in strokes gained from tee to green and he putted beautifully at Riviera.
He can shape the ball both ways which is a big thing around here because a lot of the holes go against each other diagonally and we know he’ll take care of the par 5s. Usually I wouldn’t go near a player at 12/1 but with length a standout requirement and the field dramatically reduced with that I think there is enough value in the price to warrant a serious bet.
I’m also going to take two other lengthy hitters in the hope one of them gets in contention and delivers some beer tokens even if they don’t go on and win the tournament. Both are in good form which is key.
Justin Thomas was the only man in the entire field who shot under par for each round at the Honda Classic last week and he should be praised for that because PGA National is a really tough gig. That showed how well the big hitting American was striking it.
We know Thomas can deliver in this company as he saw off a decent field in Malaysia earlier in the season and to be fair to him were Adam Scott and Sergio Garcia not striking the ball like a dream last week he could easily have won.
Thomas is 26th in driving distance and belts it miles when the big dog comes out and he’s 21st in strokes gained from tee to green. He putted really well last week and a repeat of that should see him go close this week.
Marc Leishman was right in the mix in the Northern Trust Open a couple of weeks ago and I expect him to be up there again here. Like most Australians he is a wonderful striker of the golf ball and he is comfortable in the wind. In fairness there is no weakness to his game particularly his short game.
I get the feeling there is a really big win in Leishman soon. We saw he can take care of quality players when he won the Nedbank and he had a lot of quality behind him at Riviera recently. He is sneaky long too. A lot of the time he was alongside Scott at Riviera which is good going and if the irons and putter works I fancy the Australian to be right there this week.
PLACED – Back B.Watson to win WGC Cadillac Championship for a 2/10 stake at 13.00 with Skybet (1/4 1-6)
Back him here:
Back J.Thomas to win WGC Cadillac Championship for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with Paddy Power (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
Back M.Leishman to win WGC Cadillac Championship for a 1/10 stake at 81.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
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Hi Kev
bad luck with Adam Scott last week. The win arrives a week late. How often does that happen. Well in with you on Bubba this week. That driver of his is a lethal weapon at Doral. GL
Hi Jackie,
Yeah I’ve got to say that was annoying especially as he led 8 holes into the final round at Riviera. I guess some you win and some you lose but if he swapped the two weeks around I’d have been grateful!
Really like Bubba this week.
Kev
I remember backing Scott a few years ago the week after he had won. He was trading at 50/1 and as he went into meltdown in the first round the message was firmly hammered home by the immortal words of Richard Boxall, “You have got to understand that he has been partying hard since last week”. I’m not sure that he is still the same party animal now that he has been shackled, however I can appreciate you caution. JR
Very bad luck Kev. Adam Scott is determined to haunt you. Scott’s six birdie blast after the two doubles was quite extraordinary, even by Doral standards. I backed Bubba at 40/1 on the first day (in-running after 5 holes) after I noticed that he was 2 over at the same stage the previous two years. That putt for birdie on the sixteenth ultimately cost him. Had a couple of wagers on Lieshman at massive in-running odds. Nothing wrong with his putter, but unfortunately he more than contributed to the lake balls basket in the pros shop. If he sorts his accuracy out, he could contend in the near future. His finishing position should keep his odds up. All Justin Thomas got in the end was a free haircut! JR
Yeah Adam Scott has certainly done me no favours in the last couple of weeks! As I said in the preview I couldn’t back him this week but I expected him to go well but how did that ball stay there on the last hole? Madness. Oh well hopefully better luck next week. At least I can’t get beaten by Adam Scott next week!