It is the final day of group matches in the WGC Dell Match Play on Friday and there is still plenty at stake on what should be another wonderful day of golf.
After the first two days we’ve lost some players from the field while others have put themselves in the box seat to make it out of their group but Friday will determine the outcome of all 16 sections and confirm our knockout stage line up.
The big guns have really come to play so far. Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth and Jason Day have all recorded two wins from two and control their own destiny on Friday. Others like Rickie Fowler need to win and hope the other game in their group goes their way.
Those who followed the advice in our first day preview will already be on two bets for Friday. Charl Schwartzel needs just a half against Brandt Snedeker to win his group while Matt Kuchar is in a straight knockout match with Justin Rose to decide his group. I won’t be taking either of those but we’ll be keeping a close eye on both matches on Friday evening.
I am going with four bets for a busy Good Friday. The first of them comes on what many would see as the surprise package in this golf tournament so far in Rafa Cabrera-Bello. He takes on Soren Kjeldsen in his final group game.
The Spaniard only needs a half from this match to advance but the way he is playing I would be surprised if he doesn’t beat Kjeldsen. The Dane never made a single birdie in his defeat to Hideki Matsuyama on Thursday and you just don’t win matches at this level without shooting under the card at some point.
Cabrera-Bello is hoping to go deep enough in this tournament to back door a spot in The Masters and wins add to his world ranking so he should go out looking to win this. We know his tee to green game is in good order, it has been all season so far but he’s putting well on these greens. That is a combination that can see him to victory in this all-European clash.
My other two bets come in Group 9 where first of all there is a straight knockout between Patrick Reed and Phil Mickelson. Bookmakers have this one quite even but I don’t. I’m firmly in the Reed camp here.
Reed has played pretty well in this tournament. He has kept the big numbers off the card as much as possible and has taken advantage of the holes he can birdie and that has led to a couple of wins.
Mickelson also has two wins on his CV but he was gifted his second win with an outrageously bad drive from Daniel Berger on the 18th hole on Thursday. Mickelson didn’t make a single birdie on the back nine on Thursday and that is the scoring nine so that shows his game isn’t totally in sync.
Reed is going to be the more steady of the two here and that solidness can get the job done in what should be one of the standout battles of the day.
Also in that group Daniel Berger meets Matthew Fitzpatrick. I’m a big fan of both these players but I like Berger in this match. He has been competitive in both his matches against the standout two in the group. Both times he has gone down 18 but he just hasn’t quite been able to get anything from them so far. He faces a much inferior opponent to those he has faced so far here which is a positive.
Matthew Fitzpatrick will be a big star in the game but he hasn’t mastered playing Stateside just yet and doesn’t look to have got to grips with Austin Country Golf Club at all thus far. He is making a bogey one every four holes on average this week and you just kill your chances with that ratio. In theory you should be losing four holes a round doing that and there’s no way back over 18 holes from there.
Berger is the more familiar of the two in these conditions and he looks to be hitting the ball better than the Englishman this week. He’s certainly putted better so that should equate to a consolation win for the home man here.
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Back R.Cabrera-Bello to beat S.Kjeldsen for a 4/10 stake at 1.80 with Betfred
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WON – Back P.Reed to beat P.Mickelson for a 4/10 stake at 2.15 with Coral
Back him here:
Back D.Berger to beat M.Fitzpatrick for a 4/10 stake at 2.25 with William Hill
Back him here:
