We’re into the knockout stages of the WGC Dell Match Play from here on in with the last 16 and the quarter finals all being played on a busy day of golf in Texas on Saturday.
Despite the round robin format and the 18 hole match length we’ve actually managed to come through with a pretty decent cast list for the weekend even allowing for the fact that Rickie Fowler, Bubba Watson and Adam Scott were surprise casualties in the first round.
The 16 players left in the tournament will be playing for valuable world ranking points and plenty of cash not to mention the prestige of winning a WGC event. The pressure will crank right up from here on in so it is going to be fascinating to see who deals with that best.
First out on the golf course on Saturday are Bill Haas and Chris Kirk in what should be a great game. I think the prices are about right there but I wouldn’t write Kirk off by any means. Haas held his nerve well to see off Adam Scott on Friday though so he has to be the favourite.
Perhaps the stand out match of the day comes next as Rory McIlroy takes on Zach Johnson in a battle of the major champions. McIlroy has come through his group winning his first two matches and then seeing off Kevin Na in a playoff. Johnson stormed through his section and the only time he has played the 16th onwards this week was when he chose to play in having already won his match on Friday.
This is a course Zach should feel comfortable on and clearly he does. He’s been making a stack of birdies which is no surprise given that the course is manageable for him length wise. Johnson has always been proficient with the irons and the putter.
I think Johnson is a bit of value in this match. He won’t keep playing the golf he has this week, it is inevitable he’ll have one off round but I don’t think it will be here. He will know he has the chance to really put the pressure on McIlroy because he’ll be firing into the greens first every time. That hole on hole pressure can cause McIlroy to crack so I’ll take the American who is hitting his irons the better of the two and definitely putting better.
Matt Kuchar and Brooks Koepka meet in another all-American battle in what will be a clash of styles. Koepka seems determined to prove you can monster your way around this golf course by taking driver on every hole while Kuchar has been playing it the way it has been designed, by playing for position. It will be interesting to see who comes through here.
Jason Day’s reward for coming through is a clash with Brandt Snedeker. A lot of this match will be about the fitness of Day and with a long day in store he will need to manage his way through. I’m put off backing the Australian for that reason.
Ben An has impressed this week and he takes on the surprise package of the event in Rafa Cabrera-Bello for a place in the quarter final. An won the US Amateur a few years ago to showcase his match play prowess and he has shown glimpses of how he did it this week.
Cabrera-Bello has it all on the line here. If he wins he gets into The Masters but if he loses he’ll be watching Augusta like the rest of us. That’s a different sort of pressure and I’ll avoid choosing how he is going to cope with that. I fancy An in that match but he’s short enough to swerve.
Two more all-American tussles come next and I’m betting on both. Ryan Moore came through a real ball strikers group in the first round but although the likes of Garcia and Westwood hit the ball nice it has to be said that neither can putt and Moore took advantage.
His opponent here certainly can putt though. Patton Kizzire sits fourth on the strokes gained putting stat on the PGA Tour this season so he has no problem getting the ball to the hole. His long game is in good enough order to compete this week and to come through a group with Bubba Watson and JB Holmes in it says he’s playing well. He’s definitely the value pick of the day.
Depending on where you shop you can get even money on both Patrick Reed and Dustin Johnson in their match but I’m firmly in the Reed camp there. Reed’s all round game is just so much better than Johnson’s and while Johnson has the advantage in length off the tee that is a statistic which levels out given that this course isn’t about bombing it.
Ultimately no matter how far you can smash it off the tee these 18 hole matches are settled on who can get up and down the most and Reed is light years ahead of Johnson in the short game department and he’s a better putter too. That should equate to Reed coming through here.
The final match on the course sees Jordan Spieth taking on Louis Oosthuizen in what should be another fine match. Spieth has been up early in all of his matches so far but the South African might be able to live with him over those early holes and if he does Spieth might be there for the taking. I can’t take Spieth on though so I’ll sit and watch and enjoy what should be a great game.
Back Z.Johnson to beat R.McIlroy for a 4/10 stake at 2.30 with Titanbet
Back P.Reed to beat D.Johnson for a 4/10 stake at 2.00 with Titanbet
Back them here:
Back P.Kizzire to beat R.Moore for a 4/10 stake at 2.25 with Skybet
Back him here:
